Energy end-use: Buildings Diana Urge-Vorsatz, CLA, Chapter 10 Director Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy Central European University

© GEA Key messages ●The importance of energy end-use in a sustainable energy transformation:  High-efficiency end-use provides much more flexibility and lower costs for a sustainable energy transformation ●Systemic solutions becoming the key to end-use energy transformation vs. individual technologies or gadgets – all end-use chapters confirmed ●Recent developments in the buildings sector help this sector in potentially largely contributing to the transformation ●It is possible in all regions to build (and retrofit) very high performance buildings, at costs that pay back in en. savings ●However, there is a major lock-in risk ●There are also substantial barriers and thus such future will only be realised through strong political commitment and concerted policy packages ●The GEA has shown that there many examples of political commitment and/or effective policies worldwide, although far from sufficient, and not without controversy: ●Net zero energy buildings…?

© GEA DEMAND →SupplyMixEfficiency TRANSPORT → Adv Con v Adv Con v AdvConv SUPPLY Full portfolio of supply optionsXXXXXX Limited renewable energy sources (RES)X-XXXX Limited bioenergyX-XXXX Limited RES & Limited bioenergy----XX No NuclearXXXXXX No carbon capture and storage (CCS)--XXXX No Nuclear & No carbon capture and storage----XX No bioenergy CCSX-X-XX No carbon sinks beyond the baseline (No sinks) X-XXXX No bioenergy CCS & No sinks & Limited BE*----XX GEA sustainable energy scenarios: feasibility of demand, transport and supply choices From Aleh Cherp, modified from Riahi et al., 2012 (GEA Chapter 17)

© GEA GEA-Efficiency Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Global Final Energy Demand by key sectors Transport Residential/Commercial Industry Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight

© GEA Importance of systemic/holistic solutions ●All three end-use chapters independently found as a key message that systemic solutions become the keys to a low-E future rather than individual technologies ●Chapter 8 (Industry ): “ …the large gains will not come from narrow process efficiency improvement but from application of broader systems optimization strategies.” ●These include improved materials efficiency, multi-generation, heat integration, cogeneration, recycling and a change of process inputs ●“The only way to cut energy consumption by industry more than marginally is to use much less of the products of industry and to sharply increase the rate of product re-use, renovation, re-manufacturing and recycling. This is technically feasible, but it will be politically very difficult.” ●Chapter 10, buildings: “approaches optimising individual component efficiencies typically result in 20 – 30% efficiency gains in heating and cooling energy use, while novel approaches focusing on holistic methods involving integrated design principles have been demonstrated to achieve as much as 60 – 90% energy savings compared to standard practice.” ●Chapter 18, urban: “In urban areas, systemic characteristics of energy use are generally more important determinants for the efficiency of urban energy use than the characteristics of individual consumers or of technological artifacts. “

© GEA Buildings are key to sustainable future ●Buildings are responsible for: –app 31% of global final energy demand –60% of the world’s electricity use, –one-third of energy-related CO2 emissions (incl. “indirect”), –two-thirds of halocarbon, –and 25–33% of black carbon emissions ●Therefore, improving buildings and their equipment offers one of the key entry points to addressing these challenges ●Recent major advances in building design, know-how, technology, and policy have made it possible for building energy use to decline significantly (by up to 90%). ●A large number of such very low- energy buildings already exist, demonstrating that very low level of building energy consumption is achievable. With the application of on-site and community-scale renewable energy sources, several buildings and communities could become zero-net-energy users and zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, or net energy suppliers.

Buildingsutilising passive solar construction (“PassivHaus”) Buildings utilising passive solar construction (“PassivHaus”) Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings,

© GEA “EU buildings – a goldmine for CO2 reductions, energy security, job creation and addressing low income population problems” Source: Claude Turmes (MEP), Amsterdam Forum, 2006 More on Solanova:

© GEA The role of culture: Breakdown of energy consumption in households of different developed countries Source: IEA, 2007

© GEA % +126% Final SH&C EnergyFloor Area How far can buildings take us?  App. a 46% of global final heating and cooling energy use reduction is possible by 2050 compared to 2005  This is attainable through the proliferation of today’s building best practices and accelerated state- of-the-art retrofits. This is achievable while increasing amenity, thermal comfort, living spaces, eradicating fuel poverty and without interceding in economic and population growth trends

© GEA Investment needs and energy cost savings  The low-E scenario requires app. US$14.2 trillion in undiscounted cumulative investments by These investments return app. US$58 trillion in undiscounted energy cost savings during the same period

© GEA However: significant lock-in risk -46.4% 32.5% 79%

© GEA © GEA 2012 Strong political commitment and policy packages needed ●There are a very broad range of barriers prevailing in the building sector  tenant-owner; builder-occupant; information; lack of financing; etc. ●Combined with the lock-in risk, the low-energy building pathway thus requires strong political commitment, and diverse, ambitious, concerted policy packages ●Already many regions have demonstrated political commitment at some level ●Over 20 building sector policy instruments examined; many have been saving energy at USCents/kWh worldwide (see Table 10.19) ●As a result, we see long stagnation, or even decline in building energy use in selected developed countries

© GEA © GEA 2012 Table of commitments to low-E bldgs Country target yeardescription of target UK2016zero carbon homes California2020all new residential construction zero net energy California2030all new commercial construction zero net energy Denmark2020 all new buildings to use 75% less specific E than the 2006 code Austria2015all new social housing must meet passivehouse stds France2020all new bldgs must be energy positive Germany2020all new bldgs must be primary energy neutral Netherlands2020all new buildings shall be energy neutral

© GEA Net-Zero Energy Buildings  Requiring buildings to be zero-net-energy is not likely to be the lowest cost or most sustainable approach in eliminating fossil fuel use, and is sometimes impossible.  Net-zero- energy buildings are feasible only in certain locations and for certain building types and uses.  In aiming for zero fossil fuel energy use as quickly as possible, an economical energy strategy would implement some combination of:  reduced demand for energy;  use of available waste heat from industrial, commercial, or decentralized electricity production;  on-site production of sustainable energy;  Combined with off-site supply of C-free and low impact energy, taking into account all the costs and benefits and the reliability of various options. Science House at the Science Museum of Minnesota

© GEA © GEA 2012 Conclusion ●Recent developments in technology and know-how enable that this sector can play a major role in the sustainable energy transformation ●By 2050, app. 46% less energy can be used by heating/cooling than today, despite an app. 126% increase in floorspace, and service levels ●However, there is a substantial lock-in risk: even “ambitious” present policies can lock in as much as 80% of today’s building energy use by 2050 ●Due to this and the very strong barriers in the sector, only very strong political commitment and transformative policy packages can put us on the GEA low scenario ●There are many good examples of both political commitment and effective building sector policies saving energy at negative costs worldwide, but significant upscaling and more ambitious peformance targets can only prevent the lock-in.  The net zero energy concept as a political target can be controversial and may not be the most environmentally or cost-effective solution

Thank you for your attention Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP), CEU Trust me – they just keep promising this global warming; they just keep promising; but they won’t keep this promise of theirs either…

Supplementary slides

© GEA Slide Title ●Subheading –first level bullet ●second level bullet –third level bullet »fourth level bullet 19

© GEA © GEA 2012 Key messages

© GEA

© GEA Summary of key messages: The lock-in risk ●Lock-in risk: If building codes are introduced universally and energy retrofits accelerate, but policies do not mandate state-of-the-art efficiency levels, substantial energy consumption, and corresponding GHG emissions, can be “locked in” for many decades. Such a scenario results in an app. 32% increase in global energy use by 2050 from 2005, as opposed to a 46% decrease – i.e. an app. 80% lock-in effect if expressed in 2005 global building heating and cooling energy use. ●This points to the importance of building-shell related policies being very ambitious about the efficiency levels they mandate (or encourage), and to the major lock-in risk present policies, typically under the banner of climate change mitigation, energy security and other public goals, are taking us to.

© GEA The importance of behavioural factors: Electricity consumption of air-conditioning in 25 flats of a residential building in Beijing Source: Building Energy Research Center, 2009

© GEA © GEA 2012 The role of culture and behaviour underexamined

© GEA Significant risk of the lock-in effect in all regions ●This points to the importance of building shell-related policies being ambitious about the efficiency levels they mandate (or encourage), and to the fact that present policies present a major lock-in risk