Estrus Detection Technologies and Their Economic Implications K.A. Dolecheck W.J. Silvia J.M. Bewley University of Kentucky LOOK UP PRESENTATION TITLE

Estrus Detection Methods NAHMS 2007

Visual Observation Problems Cow problems Poor footing Inadequate space High production People problems Time allocation Accuracy

Technology Opportunities Estrus associated changes Secondary signs of estrus Endocrine signs NEED PICTURE

Technology Opportunities Estrus associated changes Standing behavior Cite accubreed?

Technology Opportunities Estrus associated changes Standing behavior Secondary signs of estrus Activity

AfiTag/Pedometer Plus AfiMilk, Ltd. CowScout™ System Company AfiTag/Pedometer Plus AfiMilk, Ltd. CowScout™ GEA Farm Technologies, Inc. HeatPhone® Medria Heatseeker™II BouMatic™ IceQube™ ICE Robotics™ Lactivator Nedap MooMonitor Dairymaster Ai24 Semex® HR-Tag™ SCR™ Select Detect™ Select Sires, Inc. SensOor AGIS Automation Track a Cow™ Animart™

Activity Estrus

Technology Opportunities Estrus associated changes Standing behavior Secondary signs of estrus Activity Rumination

Rumination Estrus

Technology Opportunities Body temperature Rectal Vaginal Reticular Tympanic Estrus associated changes Standing behavior Secondary signs of estrus Activity Rumination

Vaginal Temperature Temperature Time

Technology Opportunities Estrus associated changes Standing behavior Secondary signs of estrus Activity Rumination Body temperature Endocrine signs Progesterone levels

Progesterone LH -4 -3 -2 -1 0 93 +/- 11h 31 +/- 8h 24 +/- 6h ESTRUS OVULATION 93 +/- 11h 31 +/- 8h Progesterone ONSET 24 +/- 6h LH ESTRUS -4 -3 -2 -1 0

Technology Opportunities Estrus associated changes Standing behavior Secondary signs of estrus Activity Rumination Body temperature Endocrine signs Progesterone levels Other opportunities Heart rate Feed intake Lying vs. standing time Milk yield Vaginal conductivity

Herd Dependent Herd is the biggest factor determining if a system will work Starting point Management

Investment Analysis of Automated Estrus Detection Technologies K.A. Dolecheck, G. Heersche Jr., and J.M. Bewley University of Kentucky

Objective Develop a decision-making tool User-friendly Farm-specific Multiple technologies Dashboard tools provide interactive interfaces for analysis and decision support

Model Outputs Reproductive performance Days open (French and Nebel, 2003) Investment analysis Years to break even Net present value

Calculations Net Present Value Present value of cash inflows minus present value of cash outflows Accounts for timing of revenues and cash flows Good investment: Net present value ≥ 0 System net present value determined by considering the value associated with a change in days open

Calculations Other Considerations Accounts for costs associated with: Pre-investment estrus detection method Semen usage Pregnancy diagnosis 10 year investment period

Limitations Investment analysis does not consider: Additional benefits of technologies Changes in heifer inventory Effect on quality of producer’s life

Tabs organize information Description and instructions for user Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

Hover buttons explain inputs and results Inputs adjustable in multiple ways Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

Compare up to 3 different technologies Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

Technology names appear here Black box and “Best Option” indicate the highest net present value Net present value shown visibly as either good (green) or bad (red) Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

Example Analysis Average United States Holstein dairy herd DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC, USA) Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI; Columbia, MO, USA) Published literature Compare high vs. low Initial investment cost Cow unit cost Estrus detection rate

Farm Specific Inputs Herd Assumptions Value Source Herd size 313 DairyMetrics, July 2013 Milk price $0.43/kg FAPRI, 2013 Milk yield 33.7 kg/cow/d Feed cost $0.20/kg DM

Farm Specific Inputs Culling & Replacement Assumptions Value Source Culling rate 38.1% DairyMetrics, July 2013 Days in milk do not breed 300 d Model assumption Cull milk yield 15.88 kg/d Replacement cost $1785 Liang, 2013 Cull cow value $1.67/kg FAPRI, 2013

Farm Specific Inputs Reproduction Assumptions Value Source Voluntary waiting period 58.4 d DairyMetrics, July 2013 Current estrus detection rate 49.4% Current 1st service conception rate 37.8%

Farm Specific Inputs Reproduction Assumptions Value Source Cost of 1st service semen $15 Model assumption Cost of ≥ 2nd service semen $10 Cost of pregnancy detection $3/head Galvao et al., 2013 Pre-investment estrus detection method Visual

Technology Inputs Initial investment $5,000 (Low) $10,000 (High) Unit price $50 (50) $100 (100) Estrus detection rate 70% (70) 90% (90)

System Inputs Initial Costs Start-Up Cost Unit Cost Total Initial Investment Low-50 $5,000 $50 $13,465 Low-100 $100 $21,930 High-50 $10,000 $18,465 High-100 $26,930 Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price

Other Assumptions Discount rate = 8.0% (Bewley et al., 2010) Every animal requires a unit Replace 5% of units each year

Analysis Outcome

Analysis Results Days Open

Analysis Results Years to Break Even Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price 70: 70% estrus detection rate 90: 90% estrus detection rate Analysis Results Years to Break Even Investment-Unit Price-EDR

Analysis Results Net Present Value Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price 70: 70% estrus detection rate 90: 90% estrus detection rate Analysis Results Net Present Value Investment-Unit Price-EDR

Additional Analysis Break Even Estrus Detection Rate Technology estrus detection rates vary under different management situations Goal: Determine lowest estrus detection rate at which investment in each system is still profitable Change each system’s estrus detection rate until net present value is equal to $0

Additional Analysis Break Even Estrus Detection Rate Investment-Unit Price Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price

Additional Analysis Good Reproductive Management Situation Investment profitability is dependent on pre-investment reproductive management Goal: Determine how investment profitability changes with improved beginning estrus detection 95th percentile = 76% (DairyMetrics)

Additional Analysis Good Reproductive Management Situation Investment-Unit Price-EDR Technology Example Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price 70: 70% estrus detection rate 90: 90% estrus detection rate

Conclusions Change in days open is affected by estrus detection rate Years to break even is affected by: 1) Estrus detection rate 2) Initial investment cost 3) Cow unit cost Net present value is affected by: 2) Cow unit cost 3) Initial investment cost Split into two slide

Conclusions Starting point determines investment profitability Accurate information is essential for accurate results Producer Technology manufacturers Dairy producers considering purchasing an automated estrus detection technology system can use this model as a decision support tool Too many words. Can you use phrases instead of full sentences?

Questions? Karmella Dolecheck 411 W.P. Garrigus Building Lexington, KY 40546-0215 208-410-9015 karmella.dolecheck@uky.edu Jeffrey Bewley 407 WP Garrigus Building Lexington, KY 40546 859-257-7543 jbewley@uky.edu Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies