Tools for Modeling the Water-Energy-Land-Climate Nexus 1 Jack Sieber and David Yates WEAP Developer, SEI Charlie Heaps LEAP Developer, SEI David Yates Water and Energy Systems, NCAR

Talk Outline What are LEAP and WEAP? Brief overviews of LEAP and WEAP today Vision for integrating LEAP and WEAP Challenges in integrating LEAP and WEAP Examples of issues that can be modeled When will the new system be ready? 2

Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System. Integrated Energy Planning and GHG Mitigation Assessment. Water Evaluation And Planning System. Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning. 3 Both Tools:  General purpose model building, data management and scenario analysis tools.  Environmental engineering perspective on long-term resource allocation problems.  Integrated analysis across demand and supply.  Transparent, flexible and user-friendly with low initial data requirements.  Common code and modeling language.  Similar user interfaces and terminologies.  Closely coordinated Application Programming Interfaces.  Widely used in Governments, Universities, Consulting Companies, Utilities and NGOs: 100s of users worldwide.  Available at no charge to non-profit, academic and governmental institutions based in developing countries.

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Europe’s Share of the Climate Challenge A joint project of SEI and Friends of the Earth International for COP 15. A detailed sector-by-sector mitigation scenario for all 27 EU countries developed that achieves GHG reductions of 40% in 2020 and close to 90% in 2050 vs levels. Requires radical improvements in energy efficiency, accelerated retirement of fossil fuels and a dramatic shift toward renewables. Excludes nuclear power, carbon capture and storage (CCS), biofuels, and offsetting. Examines the role of sufficiency and greater equity among EU nations in helping promote a transition to a low GHG future. Also examines Europe’s international obligations by using SEI’s Greenhouse Development Rights framework to assess fair contributions to a global climate effort. Report available at: 6

Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) The GWSA requires Massachusetts to achieve GHG reductions of between 10% and 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% by To help meet these goals the State is using LEAP to develop a new energy and climate mitigation model that will examine what policies can best meet these targets. The work is being conducted by a team lead by The Eastern Research Group (ERG) and including staff from Synapse Energy Economics, SEI, Abt Associates and Cambridge Systematics 7

Energy Demand Analysis in LEAP Households (8 million) Cooking (100%) Refrigeration (80%) Lighting (100%) Existing (80%, 400 kWh/yr) Urban (30%) Rural (70%) Efficient (20%, 300kWh/yr) Other (50%) Electrified (100%) Electrified (20%) Non-Electrified (80%) Demands organized into a flexible hierarchical tree structure. Typically organized by sector, subsector, end-use and device. Icons indicate the types of data (e.g., categories, technologies, fuels and environmental effects). Users can edit the tree on-screen using standard editing functions (copy, paste, drag & drop) Structure can be detailed and end-use oriented, or aggregate (e.g. sector by fuel). Supports multiple methods (useful & final energy analysis, stock turnover modeling, etc.)

Transformation Analysis in LEAP Energy conversion, transmission and distribution, and resource extraction. Demand-driven engineering-based simulation. Basic hierarchy: modules (sectors), each containing one or more processes. Each process has one or more feedstock fuels and one or more auxiliary fuels. Calculates capacity expansion and process dispatch, imports, exports and primary resource requirements, costs and environmental loadings. Primarily annual calculations plus seasonal/time of dispatch for electric systems. 9

Water Evaluation And Planning System Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning model GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface Physical simulation of water demands and supplies Additional simulation modeling: user-created variables, modeling equations and links to spreadsheets, scripts & other models Scenario management capabilities Groundwater, water quality, reservoir, hydropower and financial modules

Results Displayed on the Map 11

Scenario Explorer

Examples of WEAP Analyses Sectoral demand analyses Land use & climate change impacts on hydrology Water conservation Water rights and allocation priorities Groundwater and streamflow simulations Reservoir operations Hydropower generation Financial analysis Pollution tracking Ecosystem requirements

Linking WEAP to Other Software Customized/Programmed links – Groundwater flow and particle tracking models MODFLOW, MODPATH – Surface water quality model Qual2K – Semi-automated calibration PEST User-defined links to other models – California Department of Water Resources Delta salinity model – East-Bay Municipal Utilities District Reservoir operations model Call WEAP using application programming interface (API) – Scenario analysis CARS (RAND Corporation) – Model calibration PEST – Sensitivity analysis, complex model building Scripts: Visual Basic, Javascript, Python, Perl

WEAP Applications Water Systems Planning – Small Reservoirs Project, Ghana/Brazil – California Water Plan, California, USA – Guadiana River, Spain Transboundary Water Policy – Okavango River, Angola/Namibia/Botswana – Lower Rio Grande, USA/Mexico – Mekong River, Thailand/Cambodia/Vietnam/Laos – Jordan River, Syria/Israel/Jordan Climate Change Studies – Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins, California, USA – Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, Massachusetts, USA – Yemen Second National Communication – Mali Second National Communication Ecological Flows – Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection – Town of Scituate, Massachusetts, USA Water Utility DSS Application – Case studies in Portland, Oregon; Austin, Texas; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Cross Currents: Bringing Together Different Perspectives Water Climate change is a key driver of water systems. Current focus is water sufficiency and climate change adaptation. Energy dimension provides new insights into mitigation potential in the water sector. Energy Energy systems drive climate change Current focus is energy sufficiency and climate change mitigation. Water dimension provides new insights into how climate adaptation will affect energy systems. 16

Potential Applications Hydropower Cooling Water for Thermal Energy Systems Desalination Water and Land-use for Biofuels Energy for Pumping Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation 17

Integrating LEAP & WEAP Tightly coupled system where LEAP and WEAP run together and are dynamically linked. Each tool requests data or results from the other. Calculations run iteratively within each year of each scenario – seeks convergence on a consistent set of results. Requires common assumptions on: – Scenarios – Seasonal/time of day time slices – Geographic boundaries – E.g., base year, end year, discount rates, economic, demographic and climate assumptions 18

Design Goals Create a system that is flexible enough to model a wide variety of energy-water issues. Presents issues in a way that is clearly understandable and meets the needs of both energy and water planners. Keep the systems easy to use for our existing target audience. 19

Linking Water and Energy Issues 20 Limited hydropower & cooling water, increased energy requirements for pumping. Increased energy requirements for desalination. Water requirements for hydropower & thermal cooling Water conservation Hydropower & fossil generation Wind & solar, less water- intensive cooling Insufficient water for hydro and cooling, even with increased groundwater pumping. Still insufficient water--further enhance supply with desalination. Electricity demand Energy efficiency Fuel Use GHGs Local air pollution Costs Energy Demand Water Demand Water Supply Energy Supply Hydropower energy & cooling water requirements Reduced water demands Groundwater depletion Water quality Unmet ecological flows Costs

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