Social Media in Foreign Elections Shane Abinette.

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Presentation transcript:

Social Media in Foreign Elections Shane Abinette

Three Countries Armenia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections Korea’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections France’s 2012 Presidential Election

Armenia’s 2012 Elections 7-10% on Facebook 18% on other Social Media sites 87% rely on TV for political news

Armenian Voters Mobilized? Nope. Minimal engagement by politicians with voters Presidential election is more popular Political News Source 87% TV 11% online GDP per capita = $5,400

Social Media’s Role Iditord.org : Voter fraud election report system Site went down while polls were open, minimal reports of fraud Government? Poor Internet Service? Largest social media event during election 150 people hospitalized after balloons exploded at political rally

South Korea’s 2012 Election Polls showed Democratic United (Liberal) and Saenuri (Conservative) Parties tied 80% of internet users favored Liberals Top 5 twitters were Liberal Politicians. Can Twitter decide an election? Voter Mobilization Online?

Election Results Conservatives: -24 seats Liberals: +38 seats Final Score: 152 Conservatives and 127 Liberals Media Analysts and Polls predicted a closer outcome Twitter suggested Liberals may win

Presidential Election Decemeber 2012 Polls are very close Liberal Candidate ahead on Twitter Round two!

France 75% on the web 25 of 77 Million have Facebook Accounts 74% Political News from TV 40% Political News from the Internet

France’s Social Media Election Every candidate had a Twitter and Facebook (for the first time) Hollande Twitter count: 224,000 Sarkozy Twitter count: 157,000 Sarkozy Lost

Buzz Doesn’t Make You a Winner

Social Media as a Predictor Sarkozy’s Plate: Eurozone Debt Crisis and 2008 Recession 11 th Executive to lose office in Europe Destined to lose?

Conclusions Social media’s election prediction abilities are questionable Liberals seem to be more active on the internet

References dyn/content/discussion/2009/06/17/DI html french-presidential-elections.htmlhttp://blogs.salesforce.com/strategy/2012/05/whats-the-impact-of-social-media-on-the- french-presidential-elections.html media-social-tv-twitter/2?_s=PM:OPINION parliamentary-elections/ idUSBRE8380BI idUSBRE8380BI