Update on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Subsidiary Body Meeting June 21, 2004 Linda V. Moodie Senior Advisor National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

BACKGROUND

U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) – History U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1990 President Bush announced Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI) – June 11, 2001 President Bush announced new cabinet-level management responsibilities for climate science and technology programs – February 14, 2002 CCSP to integrate USGCRP and CCRI – June 2002

CCSP Management and Coordination 13 Federal Agencies and Departments coordinate their activities through the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) CCSP works with university-based and Federal scientists Close coordination with energy technology programs

Management Mechanisms: How CCSP Agencies Work Together Executive direction by cabinet-based management, including priority setting, review, and accountability Implementation by CCSP agencies Coordination through interagency working groups External interactions for guidance, evaluation, and feedback Support from interagency CCSP Office Ongoing activities: budget coordination update and use of strategic plan in Agency planning

UPDATE

CCSP Milestones NOV 2002 Discussion Draft of CCSP Strategic Plan DEC 2002 CCSP Planning Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders JAN 2003 Written comments received from scientific and user communities FEB 2003 NRC report, Planning Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Draft U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan JULY 2003 Publication of the (revised) Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program FEB 2004 NRC report, Implementing Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan

Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Based on:  Previous planning efforts (e.g., Pathways and other NRC reports)  Comments during workshop (1300 participants)  270 sets of comments during an open comment period  Reviews by the NAS-NRC  Government review

National Research Council Review on (final) CCSP Strategic Plan “The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program articulates a guiding vision, is appropriately ambitious, and is broad in scope.” “In fact, the approaches taken by the CCSP to receive and respond to comments from a large and broad group of scientists and stakeholders, including a two-stage independent review of the plan, set a high standard for government research programs.” “As a result, the revised strategic plan is much improved over its November 2002 draft, and now includes the elements of a strategic management framework that could permit it to effectively guide research on climate and associated global changes over the next decades.” “The plan addresses much of the critical science in a strategic framework that places the research it proposes in the context of national needs.”

CCSP Strategy Includes: Five overarching climate-focused goals with related long-term research foci and near-term deliverables (21 “Synthesis and Assessment Products”) Four key approaches Research in 7 core science elements Observations and Data Management Decision support Communications

CCSP Goals Will Integrate Information from USGCRP and CCRI on Climate Change CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including their natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change

CCSP Will Continue Long-term Discovery- Driven and “Applied” Research (USGCRP) Atmospheric Composition Climate Variability and Change Global Water Cycle Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Global Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

Current CCSP Activities Overall emphasis moving from planning to implementation The strategic plan has established priorities that are influencing ongoing planning and budgeting decisions by all thirteen collaborating agencies (e.g., aerosols, new observation and data management plans) CCSP identified agency leads and agency budget requests for the 21 synthesis and assessment products to be delivered within 2 to 4 years Interagency Working Groups active or planned Coordination, outreach, and other communications activities underway

Purpose of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) Products Convey the most up-to-date information available, drawing on the evolving body of climate and global change research Address the full range of scientific issues, from past/present conditions to evaluation of options for response Evaluate and report on levels of confidence

Update on S&A Products Reviewing comments from public review of the Guidelines for developing S&A products 9 of the 21 products are due within 2 years (end of Fiscal Year 2005) Product prospectus and reports will be posted for public comment on the CCSP website prior to release of final product

Product Number The Nine Near Term (within two years) Synthesis and Assessment Products 1.1Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and reconciling differences. 1.2Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes. 2.1Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the CCTP. Review of integrated scenario development and application. 2.2North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle. 3.1Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis. 4.1Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. 5.1Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision-support for selected sectors and regions. 5.2Best-practice approaches to characterize, communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty in decision making. 5.3Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to inter-annual forecasts and observational data.

Next Steps in Program Development Continue efforts to produce the near-term CCSP deliverables Synthesis and assessment reports are an important but not exclusive focus CCSP and CCTP have pledged to work in close collaboration to develop and analyze emission scenarios in terms of technologies, costs and climate/ecosystem consequences Annual implementation for research elements and other cross-cutting areas

Challenges Ahead for CCSP As always, the budget process Scientific prioritization for the government and each individual agency Maintaining credibility Maintaining interaction with the scientific and international communities, as well as stakeholders Deliver the best possible science to inform decision makers