NIS Group Co. Ltd. (8571) - Mktcap ¥54.6 bn Could this be a potential Pearl Fund buyout candidate? Internal Discussion Material October 6, 2007 (HI)

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
FI3300 Corporation Finance Spring Semester 2010 Dr. Isabel Tkatch Assistant Professor of Finance 1.
Advertisements

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT I AND II
Working Capital Roy Williams – FHA Deputy Chief Underwriter.
Financing Residential Real Estate Lesson 1: Finance and Investment.
An Overview of Financial Markets and Institutions
CHAPTER FIFTEEN Lending Policies And Procedures The purpose of this chapter is to learn why sound lending policies are important to banks and other lenders.
CHAPTER SIXTEEN Lending To Business Firms And Pricing Business Loans The purpose of this chapter is to explore how bankers can respond to a business customer.
Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Slide Saving and Capital Formation.
3.1 Sources of Finance Chapter 18 Part 1.
4.2 Sources of Finance (where can companies get money?).
Banking and the Management of Financial Institutions
PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook The University of West Alabama Copyright © 2006 Thomson Business & Professional Publishing. All rights reserved.
FINANCIAL SERVICES… Presented by: Ruchika Sharma.
What You Need Before You Go to the Bank Presented by Farm Credit employees Jeffrey Walker and Steven Bowman at Beginning Farmer Financial Planning Workshops.
THE NEED FOR CAPITAL * START-UP OR VENTURE CAPITAL * WORKING CAPITAL * INVESTMENT CAPITAL.
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Level 1 Business Studies
Florida Real Estate Principles, Practices & Law 38th Edition Linda L. Crawford Copyright © 2015 Kaplan, Inc. All rights reserved.
University of Palestine International Business And Finance Management Accounting For Financial Firms Part (3) Ibrahim Sammour.
Money Chapter 11. Today’s lecture will: Discuss why the financial sector is central to almost all macroeconomic debates. Explain what money is. Enumerate.
Part 4 PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook Copyright © 2003 South-Western College Publishing. All rights reserved. All rights reserved. Finding Sources.
Chapter 11 FINANCING A BUSINESS.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Chapter Thirteen: Statement of Cash Flows.
Chapter 7 Commercial bank financial statement Salwa Elshorafa 2009 © 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
©2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publically accessible website, in whole or in part.
FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING A USER PERSPECTIVE Hoskin Fizzell Davidson Second Canadian Edition.
Analyzing Financial Statements. Financial Statement and its Analysis Collective name for the tools and techniques that are intended to provide relevant.
BANKING.  Banking is a combination of businesses designed to deliver the services  Pool the savings of and making loans  Diversification  Access to.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2008 McGraw-Hill/Irwin STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS Chapter 13.
1 1 st Credit Risk Management Conference December 2010 The Credit Cycle Leonidas Kotsaftis Director, Credit Risk Assessment Services ICAP GROUP.
Working Capital Management: Current Asset Management and Short-Term Financing Corporate Finance Dr. A. DeMaskey.
4.2 Sources of Finance (where can companies get money?).
3.6 Ratio Analysis Chapter 23 – Part 2.
©2001 Kauffman Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership PLANNING AND GROWING A BUSINESS VENTURE™ ™ Traditional Money Sources Banks Government loan programs.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved Chapter Sixteen Lending Policies and Procedures.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved Chapter Five The Financial Statements of Banks and Their Principal Competitors.
Analyzing Financial Statements
ACCOUNTING & FINANCE Balance Sheet. Introduction and Key Definitions It shows the financial position of a firm at a particular moment in time. what “
THE BANK'S BALANCE SHEET
FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING A USER PERSPECTIVE Hoskin Fizzell Davidson Second Canadian Edition.
Dell is Going Private Case Study 1. 2 Why DELL going private?  Major reasons  Autonomy  Leadership  Strategy  Customers  Shareholders  ….. 3.
Management of Working Capital. Balance Sheet A financial statement that summarizes a company's assets, liabilities and shareholders' equity at a specific.
Business Finance FINANCING A BUSINESS. Financial Needs … Start up Capital (set up costs for a new business) Working Capital (day to day running costs)
Topic 3: Finance and Accounts
Chapter 7 Obtaining the Right Financing for Your Business University of Bahrain College of Business Administration MGT 239: Small Business MGT239 1.
Ratio Analysis…. Types of ratios…  Performance Ratios: Return on capital employed. (Income Statement and Balance Sheet) Gross profit margin (Income Statement)
Hybrid Methods Hybrid Methods – Mix of Asset Based & Income Based Method.
Principles of Management
MONETARY POLICY Lecture 4 Role of banks in the process of money creation Marijana Ivanov, Ph.D.
A Firm’s Sources of Financing
Small Business Management, 18e
Chapter 3 Debenture Issue.
Banking and the Management of Financial Institutions
Cash is KING!!! How do companies boost cash?
A U s e r P e r s p e c t i v e Third Canadian Edition
sources of short term and long term financing
An Overview of Financial Markets and Institutions
CHAPTER FIFTEEN Lending Policies And Procedures
The Financial Plan, Part 2: Finding Sources of Funds
Financing a business.
Accounting, Fifth Edition
Accounting, Fifth Edition
The Harvest Plan Part 3 Developing the New Venture Business Plan.
Level 1 Business Studies
Partnership Dissolution
Liberty Interactive Corporation Q3-11 Earnings Call November 8, 2011
Overview of Working Capital Management
EC7095 Financial Statement Analysis
Chapter 8 Overview of Working Capital Management
Professor Chris droussiotis
Presentation transcript:

NIS Group Co. Ltd. (8571) - Mktcap ¥54.6 bn Could this be a potential Pearl Fund buyout candidate? Internal Discussion Material October 6, 2007 (HI)

2 Summary –After interviewing NIS on September 28, 2007, the company indicated that it would be difficult for the company to find a buyer for its consumer loans (O/S of ¥31.3 bn as of 6/07) in the current market regardless of the magnitude of the discount –In our original liquidation analysis, we have assumed a mark-to-market value of such loans at a 60% discount to its face value. Under such scenario, NIS’s liquidation value was ¥303 per share. –If we assume “0” value for the consumer loans, NIS’s liquidation value is reduced to ¥175 per share. Liquidation Analysis (Update)

3 –At a liquidation price of ¥175, NIS’s current share price of ¥374 is overvalued by 114%. Tough current PB is 0.6x, the pro forma PB is actually 2.1x –Under this scenario, the pro forma B/S shows that Shareholders’ Equity of the company will decrease from ¥81.3 bil to ¥25.6 bn and the Capital Adequacy Ratio (SHE/Total Assets) will fall from 20.2% to 7.2% –At this level, the company will definitely require additional capital injection to operate as a going concern Important to note, our original analysis pointed out that NIS is likely to face liquidity problems over the next several months since ST borrowings payable within 12 months has risen to ¥105.6 bn In line with our view, S&P has downgraded NIS’s credit rating to BB- with negative credit watch on October 3 rd indicating concerns that NIS’s lenders may not extend their credit lines –We should maintain a close eye on NIS as it could become an interesting Pearl Fund buy-out candidate NIS has investments in 18 public companies, 162 unlisted companies, and 23 limited partnerships (see Appendix 1) –NIS is scheduled to announce its 1HY results on 11/6 and hold an analyst meeting on 11/9

4 The following page illustrates a hypothetical deal structure for internal discussion purposes Originally, we thought of a MBO structure. However, we believe that such structure would not be feasible for the following reasons: –We will need to assume all liabilities of NIS (i.e. overcharged interest, off balance sheet liabilities) –A delisting of NIS will prevent future funding from the capital markets –We will need to assess the management credibility of NIS (Chairman Sakioka and CEO Amiya) –We will need to negotiate with the banks for debt forgiveness (time consuming) –A tender price lower than the current stock price may result in a TOB failure A more feasible structure will be a purchase of certain NIS assets (i.e. consumer loans and NIS’s investments in public and private companies) –Under this structure, NIS can continue its business (real estate loans, leasing, China, etc.) –Taiyo could potentially create value with NIS’s investments (trading, restructuring, selling assets to Taiyo’s portfolio companies, etc.) –Tokyo Star Bank could potentially benefit by getting access to new customers, refinancing, servicing, etc. The benefit of this structure is that Taiyo may be able to limit the risks of assuming unexpected liabilities and NIS could stay in business Hypothetical Transaction Structure

5 NIS Transaction Structure Taiyo Star Inc. NIS Fin Service Assets (RE loan, etc.) 194 ST Debt150 Consumer31 LT Assets58 Investments33 Other Assets111 Cash & STI39 LT Debt146 Equity81 Total Others TPP (Pearl Fund) Tokyo Star Consumer Investments 6 23 (3) Servicing Agreement Refinancing Collection (3) Portfolio Management Agreement Trading Restructuring/M&A IPO (2) Payment (2) Asset Transfer Agreement (1) Equity 50% + Debt? (1) Equity 50% Assumption: Consumer loans 31bn x 20% = 6bn, Investments 33.2bn x 70% = 23bn Asset Transfer Agreement: No liability assumption or obligations, transfer of relevant employees to Taiyo Star Inc., etc. 18 public companies 162 unlisted companies 23 limited partnerships 8 bonds Total 223 investments

6 Internal discussion –Are we interested in pursuing this opportunity? –Are we comfortable with getting in the consumer loan business? –Is this in line with our strategy? –Can we create value? –Do we have the resources? Do we need to team up? Monitor 1HY results, credit rating Conduct further analysis Meeting with IR after 1HY results Partner meeting with Chairman Sakioka and CEO Amiya Partner meeting with Tokyo Star Bank Next Steps

7 Appendix

8 Appendix 1 NIS’s Investments

9 Appendix 2 B/S

10 Appendix 3 Valuation

11 Comps Appendix 4

12 Share buybacks June – August mil shares (2.4 bn yen) Reverse stock spilt (August 31, 2007) Ordinary shares 1-for-20 reverse stock 2.9 bil shares became mil shares ADR 2 ADRs = 1 ordinary share (before 1 ADR = 10 ordinary shares) NIS’s Recent Activities NIS Share Performance Appendix 5

13 NIS’s Med-term Plan and China Strategy China Business- Investment Banking Business in China Nissin Leasing (China) is the platform $100 mil of capital Just became profitable with mil yen/month. Expected to grow significantly.  Services Installment-based sales, leasing, and mortgage-backed lending (linked to construction machinery. Charges 17-18% vs. local lending rate of 7%) Delayed payment of less than 20-30% Account receivable guarantee service (intent is to establish credit information company in China)  Strategy Interested in listing Nissin Leasing on the Hong Kong stock exchange within 2 years May lower holdings to lesser than 50% Will purchase shares in Vietnamese companies engaged in real estate development Med-term plan Appendix 6