Load Forecasting within Vermont & New England Docket 7081 workshop 9/13/05

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop2 What forecasts exist? ISO-NE publishes annual forecasts within their Capacity, Energy, Loads and Transmission report (CELT) –This report now includes forecasts for all of New England and by state The DPS has from time to time created a state- wide load forecast, with the last one created in 2002 VELCO examines, on a regular basis, historic information for comparison against existing forecasts

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop3 What methodologies are used in these forecasts ISO-NE uses information provided in FERC 715 submittals to create a state by state, and with historical load information, creates a load database which is then weather normalized to provide regional and state peak load forecasts –This forecast includes a set of predicted peak loads for the potential spectrum of weather –ISO-NE’s methodology is available at:

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop4 What is the latest ISO-NE forecast for New England?

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop5 How do the latest Vermont peak load forecasts compare? Year2005 CELT 90/ CELT 50/ CELT 90/10DPS

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop6 What is the historic data VELCO would use for a forecast?

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop7 What might the short-term trend be?

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop8 What information can VELCO provide to assist this process? VELCO has VT-wide load information from 1991 to today VELCO has detailed information within the state from 2002 to today –Can examine load trends in specific areas within the state based on subtransmission information VELCO now has –Can correlate the load information with temperature information we are collecting around the state –This information will be used to provide better information to the ISO-NE and DPS forecasting efforts