Waves for Weather Weenies

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Presentation transcript:

Waves for Weather Weenies ATMO 456

Wave (and Marine Wind) Forecasting Purview of the Meteorologist National Weather Service Industry Oil and Gas Ship Routing Navy Inseparable from Marine Meteorology

Definitions From Oceanography: An Introduction, Wadsworth ©1985

Wave Period The time it takes for successive wave crests to pass a fixed point.

Orbital Motions From Oceanography: An Introduction, Wadsworth ©1985

Sea and Swell Waves experienced at a location are a combination of the locally-generated wind waves (Sea) and the Swell propagating in from other source regions. L L 3 days for swell in N. Pacific to reach W. Coast, 2 weeks to transit Antarctica to Aleutians Local Wind Wave spectrum v

Measures of Wave Height Hs - Significant Wave Height – Most widely used and what customer usually wants Avg. of the Highest 1/3 of all waves (wind wave or swell). AKA H1/3 or Combined Seas SQRT(Sum of Squares of Sea and Swell) approximates H1/10 Hmax and Havg

How Wind Waves are Made Ingredients Two governing equations Straight Winds (more or less) Don’t forget – less friction, less cross-isobar flow and greater speeds Over a distance (Fetch) For some period of time Two governing equations Depend on depth (shallow or deep) Shallow is depth of one half wavelength (“feel bottom”) Speed of Shallow water waves depends only on depth Speed of deep waves depends on wavelength Swell waves are generally much longer wavelength/period West Coast waves much longer and larger (why?)

Concept of fully arisen sea For a 30 Knot wind From Oceanography: An Introduction, Wadsworth ©1985

Forecasting Waves Inland Waters vs. Offshore Wind wave fetch limited or not Phasing of wind speed and direction changes (duration of straight winds) Account for Swell

Thankfully, there is a model! Spectral Ocean Wave Models Today’s primary model: Wavewatch III Run by NCEP (OPC) and by NAVY (FNMOC) Of course, only as good as the model atmospheric winds driving it

Forecast Products Coastal Marine Forecast/Inland Waters Forecast (and marine zones) (20nm out and 20 to 60nm) Offshore Waters Forecast Small Craft Advisories/Warnings Open Ocean: High Winds and Seas Warnings Gale (34 to 47 knots) and Storm (48 knots and up, although 50 is sometimes used) Generally associated with Lows (“Gale” Low) High Seas 12 ft or higher, with 6 ft increment boxes (12,18,24) http://Weather.gov/marine

When Waves reach the Shore… The term becomes Surf Surf forecasting is usually a specialized business for recreation and for military operations When waves break, mass is transported Leads to a forecasting frontier: Rip Currents

Rip Current (Runout) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/rip_current/