I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Air Force Weather Agency Lt Col Jeffrey S. Tongue Individual Mobilization Augmentee Air Force Weather Agency Offutt AFB, NE Conditional Climatology Application to the TAF Preparation

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2 Objectives Describe Conditional Climatology Definition Benefits/Limitations Discuss current forecast methods/limitations Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit Interpret and apply the output Case studies

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3 What is Conditional Climatology? A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions. Examples: Pattern Recognition Conceptual Models Local Rules of Thumb Forecaster Experience

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4 Role of Conditional Climatology in Aviation Forecasting 1960’s Conditional Climatology Tables (WSCC) 1970’s to present Numerical models MOS 2000’s Integration of CC back into the aviation forecast process

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5 Benefits of Conditional Climatology? Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends Limits over forecasting of rare events Increases forecaster confidence Better results than just using persistence forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6 Limitations of Conditional Climatology Not to be used alone! Does not discriminate between physical processes May not be useful in extreme or rare weather events Only as good as the forecaster in the loop

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8 What Tools Do you Use? Current Observations Satellite MOS Soundings Model Data Local Studies Advection Convection Persistence

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10 Models Relative Humidity??? Model Clouds???

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 11 Model Soundings?

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 12 Meteograms

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 13 How good are NWP Models at predicting: Moisture? It’s Horizontal and Vertical Distribution? Cloud Ceilings?

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 14 Model Output Statistics! Good idea. Removes biases. Adds Climatology. Limited to NWS Locations

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 MAV MOS Is the “Weather” in Caribou the same as State College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in Atlanta the same as San Antonio? Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and Visibility Summer (Apr-Sept) Winter (Oct-Mar)

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 16

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 17 MAV MOS Model “Run time” plus 3 Hour Observation is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z) Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 18 NGM MOS Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern Period of Record used for equation Development is Extensive 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 19 We need more Rules of thumb? “in this situation, the cloud base “usually” remains IFR until late morning.” CLIMATOLOGY!!! “Conditional” Climatology

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 20 Case 1 18Z TAF John F. Kennedy International Airport May

1630Z Visible. KJFK

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 22 17Z METAR METAR KJFK Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 23 Situation SE Flow Prevails Models provided little help in terms of moisture and clouds. When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility Go??

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 24 12Z NAM-eta (Fcst Hr = 05) Valid 17Z

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 25 15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 02) Valid 17Z

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 26 12Z NAM (Fcst Hr = 14) Valid 02Z

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 27 15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 11) Valid 02Z

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 28 GFS MOS

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 29 NGM MOS

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 30 Current TAF KJFK Z KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1617 SCT007 FM KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140 FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040 FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004 TEMPO /2SM FG VV002=

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 31 Conditional Climatology MODCV is available from the AFCCC. Data files exists for most military airports and man civilian airports world wide! Today will look at using the data for KJFK.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 32 What Was Forecast? FTUS41 KOKX TAFJFK TAF KJFK Z KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO /2SM FG VV002 FM KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 33 What TAF would you make? KJFK KT 9999 BKN007 BECMG KT 4800 BR OVC004 BECMG KT 0800 FG VV002

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 34 KJFK Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP225 T = KJFK Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T = KJFK Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP217 T = KJFK Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP213 T = KJFK Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T = KJFK Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6= KJFK Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2 $= KJFK Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP204 T = KJFK Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP204 T = KJFK Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203 T = KJFK Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205 T $= KJFK Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 $= KJFK Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203 T $= KJFK Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201 T $= KJFK Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35 SLP203 P0000 T $= KJFK Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199 P T $= KJFK Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T $= KJFK Z 18005KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP187 T $= KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T $= KJFK Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2000V3500FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 20007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T $= KJFK Z 20006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 21006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK Z 21004KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP183 T $= KJFK Z 22006KT 0SM R04R/1000FT FG VV001 18/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP180 T $= KJFK Z 20005KT 0SM R04R/1000V2000FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP179 T = KJFK Z 19006KT 0SM R04R/1400V2400FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4= KJFK Z 21007KT 0SM R04R/2000V5500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4= KJFK Z 19007KT 0SM R04R/1600V4500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 SLP173 T = KJFK Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200VP6000FT BR BKN003 21/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SLP170 SFC VIS SE-SW 1/2 CIG 002V004 T = KJFK Z 17006KT 3SM HZ BKN003 22/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SFC VIS SW-W 1 1/2 BKN V SCT= KJFK Z 19006KT 5SM HZ SCT003 22/18 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP166 SCT V BKN T = KJFK Z 17009KT 8SM FEW008 24/19 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP158 T = KJFK Z 18009KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 CB DSNT N T = KJFK Z 17010KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 25/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 CB DSNT NE TCU DSNT N T = KJFK Z 18015KT 10SM SCT250 25/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T = KJFK Z 18020G24KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP124 TCU DSNT W T =

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 35 Times to use Conditional Climatology During “steady state” weather situations. Fog/Stratus events Radiation Fog Advection Fog Marine Stratus Prevailing Wind Determining Onset and Dissipation Times. Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters orientation. New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 36 Summary Conditional Climatology improves the TAF process through increased forecaster confidence. Must correctly integrate Conditional Climatology with Observations, NWP, MOS and other techniques. Conditional Climatology can significantly improve TAF quality and service.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 37 Thank You!

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 38 References BUFKIT: MOS: MODCV: