Winter Forecast George H. Taylor, CCM Applied Climate Services, Corvallis

My forecast from August appliedclimate.wordpress.com

My forecast from August  September: continued warmer and drier than average  October: mild and dry first half but stormy second half  November: just the opposite of October: stormy, mild first half but drier second half. Ski areas open by Thanksgiving.  December: relatively dry and mild but with valley fog  January: similar to December  February: active month, with considerable rain; chance of low-elevation snow  March: wet, windy and wild  April: a dry and mild second half  May: dry and mild

Analog years  PDO:  MEI:

Nov 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. national weather forecaster has called off its El Niño watch five months after raising the alert as it is now less likely that the much- feared phenomenon that can wreak havoc on global weather will emerge.

Have you heard about El Niño? Pacific Ocean waters warming up again this year. Best be ready for El Niño This winter will be hell because the weather will be weird And if you own a house upon the beach at Malibu you should be scared.

It’s because of El Niño This winter in New York it will be 70 degrees Because of El Niño It will be as cold in Florida as it will be in Maine And every day the forecast in Los Angeles is mudslides mixed with rain.

If you’re wondering why it rains all night, the weather bites --- El Niño And if you haven’t had a drop of rain then you can blame El Niño Well, the Weather Channel’s so confused, it’s such a mess. If your basement has to be pumped out, then curse and shout, “El Niño!”

There’s no sunshine in the skies today It’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the month of May I guess you say, why do I get wet today? La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

There’ll be soooo much snow in the mountains this year And lowland flooding, baby, is something to fear I guess you say, why is there a flood today? La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter down in LA Drought in Arizona, and along the Southern Way I guess you say, why is it so dry today? La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña…. There’s no sunshine in the skies today, it’s La Niña, It might even flood today, La Niña Talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout La Niña