Joe DelliCarpini Science and Operations Officer Science and Operations Officer WFO Boston, MA NWS Digital Aviation Services

Forecaster Service AFOS Era (1990s) Analyze Study Guidance Type Text “Package” (ZFP) Support Personal Interaction Debut of IFPS/GFE (Early 2000s) Analyze Study Guidance Draw Text “Package” Digital Grid Derived Products (AFM) Personal Interaction Some Expanded/Detailed Products Where We Are Headed ( ) Analyze Study Guidance Interact with Guidance Populate 4 D Digital Forecast Grid Derived Products Probabilistic Forecasts Personal Interaction More Expanded/detailed Products Detailed Data for Intelligent Software Capability Foundation of DSS

Digital Aviation Services Requirement for FAA NextGen Requirement for FAA NextGen Initial integration of weather info: Initial integration of weather info: Ceiling, Visibility, Icing, Turbulence Ceiling, Visibility, Icing, Turbulence AWC/CWSU/WFO roles are being defined AWC/CWSU/WFO roles are being defined WFOs can provide meaningful input WFOs can provide meaningful input Integrate Aviation forecasting into GFE Integrate Aviation forecasting into GFE Public, Marine, Fire Weather programs already there! Public, Marine, Fire Weather programs already there! Increases efficiency of forecast operations Increases efficiency of forecast operations Generate TAFs quickly and maintain consistency Generate TAFs quickly and maintain consistency Capability for additional TAF sites Capability for additional TAF sites

Digital Aviation Services There is a demand for this information!

NWS Digital Aviation Services Today Participating WFOs On The Way Many have shown interest !

AFN ASH BED BID BVY CEF CQX EEN EWB FIT HFD IJD LWM MVY OQU ORE OWD PVC PYM SFZ TAN UUU WST ACK BAF BDL BOS FMH HYA MHT ORH PVD WFO Boston Aviation Forecasts TAF Sites (10) Shadow TAF Sites (23) GHG

Hourly Graphical Forecasts Not just for aviation use!

Shadow TAFs Internal forecasts for airports not served by NWS TAFs Run in the background every 6 hours 0545, 1145, 1845, 2345 UTC No forecaster “intervention” Sent to NWS Verification Branch for processing Gives a sense of “gridded” verification Meets or exceeds GPRA IFR Metric

Shadow TAF Applications Google Map interface for Terminal Information Board

Shadow TAF Applications “Point and Click” capability for Ceiling and Visibility forecasts

TAF Applications Terminal Information Board

Internal Consistency Wind grids produce output for TAF and TDA

Consistency and Efficiency TDAs can be derived from grids

Role of TAFs Regulatory Forecast Product Part of Digital Aviation Services

Objective Provide hourly graphical forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility which represent prevailing conditions for the next 30 hours Forecast flight categories, not observations! Keep the process manageable for the forecasters Support a national digital database Allow TAFs to “drop out” of the database with little or no post-editing

Digital Aviation Services Populate grids out to 36 hours for: Populate grids out to 36 hours for: 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z TAFs 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z TAFs T, Td, Wind, Sky, Wx, Ceiling, Vsby, LLWS T, Td, Wind, Sky, Wx, Ceiling, Vsby, LLWS GFE formatter produces first cut of TAFs GFE formatter produces first cut of TAFs Forecasters review/transmit TAFs through AvnFPS Forecasters review/transmit TAFs through AvnFPS Grids updated every 3 hours / issue AMDs Grids updated every 3 hours / issue AMDs Meets 3-hour TAF requirements Meets 3-hour TAF requirements Other AMDs: Issued through AvnFPS Other AMDs: Issued through AvnFPS Need for timely Ceiling/Visibility analysis grid Need for timely Ceiling/Visibility analysis grid

Assessment Staff Feedback: Unanimously Positive Staff Feedback: Unanimously Positive No one wants to go back to writing TAFs! No one wants to go back to writing TAFs! Short Term forecaster no longer removed from GFE to compose TAFs in AvnFPS Product consistency no longer a problem Workload “shift” – no notable increase “Keep it simple” but have alternate methods available to help in a pinch. “Keep it simple” but have alternate methods available to help in a pinch. Tools available which use raw model data if MOS does not look reasonable (diurnal cumulus, stratus in particular) LLWS procedure calculates shear and ensures consistency from shift to shift – no more guessing from BUFKIT!

Assessment Operations are more efficient Operations are more efficient “Aviation forecaster” no longer needed on shift “Aviation forecaster” no longer needed on shift Grids/TAFs handled by Short Term forecaster Grids/TAFs handled by Short Term forecaster Most short term grids are completed at TAF time Most short term grids are completed at TAF time Shift in forecasting from point-based to areal-based Shift in forecasting from point-based to areal-based Immediate acceptance by staff Immediate acceptance by staff Much easier to compose TAFs Much easier to compose TAFs 00z/12z: Usually update first 6-12 hours only 00z/12z: Usually update first 6-12 hours only Easier to send multiple AMDs for 3-hour TAFs Easier to send multiple AMDs for 3-hour TAFs No initial drop in verification scores No initial drop in verification scores All sites improved! All sites improved!

Challenges Grids to TAFs Grids to TAFs “TAFs are too long!” (complex weather) “TAFs are too long!” (complex weather) Staff training held on “nuts and bolts” of GFE formatter Staff training held on “nuts and bolts” of GFE formatter Knowledge of Cat A and B thresholds / wind impacts Knowledge of Cat A and B thresholds / wind impacts Focus on first 12 hours...trends beyond that Focus on first 12 hours...trends beyond that Forecaster preference is to “post edit” and remove any extra FM groups Forecaster preference is to “post edit” and remove any extra FM groups Assumes some initial risk Assumes some initial risk Initial drop in scores possible, but they will recover Initial drop in scores possible, but they will recover Detailed hourly grids are a must Detailed hourly grids are a must Staff training/practice is crucial! Staff training/practice is crucial!

But Consider the Benefits TAF information available for entire CWA TAF information available for entire CWA Pilots no longer have to “estimate” based upon nearby TAFs Pilots no longer have to “estimate” based upon nearby TAFs Coastal waters/Great Lakes (Search & Rescue) Coastal waters/Great Lakes (Search & Rescue) Capability to easily add more TAF sites Capability to easily add more TAF sites Meet FAA requests (we have 5 more on our list!) Meet FAA requests (we have 5 more on our list!) More detailed information for AWC/CWSUs More detailed information for AWC/CWSUs Area Forecasts, Stand-Up Briefings, etc. Area Forecasts, Stand-Up Briefings, etc.

Next Steps Quarterly WFO Conference Calls Quarterly WFO Conference Calls What’s working/not working What’s working/not working GFE formatter issues GFE formatter issues National Digital Forecast Services Team National Digital Forecast Services Team Develop roadmap for AWC, CWSUs, WFOs Develop roadmap for AWC, CWSUs, WFOs Add more WFOs to the mix! Add more WFOs to the mix! GSD involvement GSD involvement Ceiling/Visibility analysis grids and new data sets Ceiling/Visibility analysis grids and new data sets

Is Your WFO Interested? Decide, as an office, if this is something you want to pursue Decide, as an office, if this is something you want to pursue Come up with an implementation plan which includes staff input/feedback Come up with an implementation plan which includes staff input/feedback LOT agreement LOT agreement Customer feedback (GA, local FAA, Airlines) Customer feedback (GA, local FAA, Airlines) If so, we can help! If so, we can help! GFE tools and procedures GFE tools and procedures Staff training Staff training More detailed Go-To-Meeting presentation More detailed Go-To-Meeting presentation Practice before going “live” Practice before going “live”

NWS Digital Aviation Services