China.com February 24, 2000 BA 491 Emerging Markets Summer Xia, Patcharin Deprasertwong, Charlie Q. Lin, Dohee Kwon, Susan Mlodozeniec

Agenda Company –Background, IPOs, Business Model and Strategies, Positives and Risks Internet Industry in Asia Risks and Concerns Valuations –DCF, Multiple Analysis, Cost of Capital Conclusions and Q&A

China.Com First Pan-Asian Integrated Internet Company Portal Service On-line Advertising Web Solutions Addresses: – – – –

First IPO July 12, 1999 on NASDAQ 4.3 million shares at $20/share Closing price of $67.10/share $96.6 million in proceeds

China.Com Stock Splits (2:1) December 14, 1999 Prior to split, closing price of $ Closing on day of split: $98.125

Secondary IPO January 21, 2000 No earnings: $4.4 million loss on $5.2 million in revenue for the three months ended Sept. 30, 1999 Nearly 5 million shares sold with offering price of $85/share Closed at $92.438

CHINA.COM Performance

Business Model Multinational Corporations Asia’s Leading Corporations Small to medium Sized business Enterprises Asian Governments ClientsThree Business Units Portal Network Content-Community-Commerce China.com,Hongkong.com,Taiwan.com Web Solutions Strategy Design Maintenance Enhancement Ad Network Pan-Asia Network China.com Portals 24/7 media partnership W orld Wide Web Content and Commerce Chinese users globally English language users interested the Greater China Market Yahoo! Netscape, 24/7 Media Xinhua News Agency, AOL, Agency France, Intel Strategic Alliances and Shareholders

Low Internet and PC penetration Rapid growth in client base, page views, revenues Strong market positions, early mover advantage Integrated business model Expansion across Asia - organic & acquisition Fragmented industry Strong shareholders, potential strategic partners COMPANY POSITIVES

Limited track record Increasing competition Reliance on partners, content-alliances Execution risk Network infrastructure and Telecom carriers Geographic risks COMPANY RISKS

INTERNET INDUSTRY IN ASIA (OPPORTUNITY) IDC forecasted “number of internet users in Asia would grow by 33.4% and surpass growth of U.S users by the year 2003” China - Large population, government commitment on internet Hong Kong, Taiwan - Technologically sophisticated population, high penetration rate Asia - With a projected Internet user growth rate of over 30%, online opportunities will develop significantly in Asia

INTERNET INDUSTRY IN CHINA (OPPORTUNITY) Growth Catalysts for China Market Prioritization of Internet development, says Gov’t - maintain global competitiveness, efficient processing of public sector Technology leapfrogging - TV-internet access, TV-based internet products Prioritization of Infrastructure Development - Growth in telephone infrastructure, 19M wireline subscriber/yr, wireline population penetration increase from 1.4% in 1993 to 8.7% in 1998

INTERNET INDUSTRY IN CHINA (THREATS) Constraints of Internet Growth in China Lack of competition in the provision of telephony service Poor last-mile networks Long waiting lists for leased-line provision from China Telecom Lack of credit card availability and usage in China constrains e-commerce Small number of ISDN(integrated service digital network)

RISKS AND CONCERNS Economic Risks Country Risks Company Risks

ECONOMIC RISKS Volatile Asian Economic Climate - Reduce advertising in Asian market - Reduce web solution business - Liquidity problem Economic climate in Greater China - PRC: Slow domestic demand and inflation - Hong Kong: Deflation, Uncertainty in currency Peg - Taiwan : Recession, Volatility and depreciation of NT dollar

COUNTRY RISKS Uncertainty in Internet laws & regulations - Government authorities can force ISPs to block a web site if believed to be socially destabilizing - Imposing strict ISP’s licensing requirements Currency risks - Future restriction on currency exchange, restriction on convertibility of Renminbi

Limited track record Increasing competition Reliance on partners, content-alliances Execution risk Network infrastructure and Telecom carriers Geographic risks COMPANY RISKS

AGENDA Management Forecast and Earning Projections Valuation - DCF model Main Assumptions

MANAGEMENT FORECAST 100% CAGR from 1998 through 2001 Key drivers for its revenue in the future –Portal Network –Web Solutions –Advertising Sales

PORTAL NETWORK Generate increased traffic through greater numbers of internet users –Enhancement of content –Establishment of co-branded portals and vertically integrate into own portals Increase from current 3% of total revenue to 5% in a long run

WEB SOLUTIONS Primary revenue stream - 78% in 1998 –Web site design & maintenance services –Strategic consulting –Technical integration Web solutions service revenue is driven by –Number of paying clients –Annual average yield per account Overall growth will be over 100% through 2001

ADVERTISING SALES Comprehensive ad solutions & targeted ad –175 affiliated web sites throughout Asia, Australia and US. –Share 30% -50% of the advertising revenues Ad revenue will grow to 60% of the total revenue –Steady growth in the total number of affiliated web sites –Aggregated daily page views

VALUATION-DCF

DCF - MAIN ASSUMPTION  Revenue - will grow at over 100% till 2001, and 80% till 2004  The percentage of revenue from on-line advertising will surpass that from web solutions  Won’t break even till the end of 2001 –EBIT is expected to 20% in 2003 from current negative 257% –SG&A will decline and stay stable at 30% –Staff will drop slightly from 25% to 20% –R&D will see significant increase, up to 15% from 7%

DCF - MAIN ASSUMPTION (CON’T) Capex - significantly drop over the years Assume average $2 million each year for fixed assets acquisition Targeted debt Ratio - 15% Stable growth ( ) - 60% Perpetuity growth rate - 9%

DCF - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

DCF VALUATION : COST OF CAPITAL Tradiational Approach: CAPM Model

International cost of Capital and Risk Calculator Step1: calculate country risk : China:19.9% Hong Kong:18.5% Taiwan:14.8% Hybrid rate: 18.0% DCF VALUATION : COST OF CAPITAL

International cost of Capital and Risk Calculator Step 2: identify the Beta adjustment : Regression against Credit Lyonais Greater China Index DCF VALUATION: COST OF CAPITAL

International cost of Capital and Risk Calculator Step 3: : Weighted Cost of Capital : DCF VALUATION : COST OF CAPITAL

VALUATION BASED ON MULTIPLES We Use Price/Sales multiples:

VALUATION BASED ON MULTIPLES How to price the Chinadotcom?

Q&A