Water Economics Project: Multi-Year Water Allocation System (MYWAS) Developing a Country-Specific Model for Palestine By Engineer Kamal Issa, MSc PWA For Arab Water Week 2013 Amman-Jordan Palestinian Water Authority

Vision Building the capacity of the PWA to interact with an array of stakeholders in the context of inter- sectoral water planning for an adaptive national water plan that is coherent with meaningful social and economic priorities.

Goals MYWAS will be invaluable tool for decision-makers in planning and administering in order to enhance water sector management within the West Bank. Ensure that the Palestinian Water Authority has the ability to evaluate and prioritize investments and policies in the water sector, looking at impacts system-wide, including different options.

4 Major Challenges Facing Palestine in the Water Sector  Limited water supply ( average 70 l/c/d).  Almost 6% of the population and 17% of the Palestinian communities are not served with tapped water.  Over pumping of groundwater aquifers (in certain areas).

Major Challenges Facing Palestine in the Water Sector  Sanitation services are limited and inadequate (40% of population lack sanitation services, only 5% of collected WW is properly treated).  Drought conditions that minimize aquifer recharge (climate change).  Saline water and pollution (mainly sewage).

MYWAS plays a key role in planning for different economic futures and water availability, and correctly identifying which infrastructure and policies create the most resilient situation for Palestinian people.

Benefits of Multi-Year Water Allocation System MYWAS shows policy makers the system-wide benefits of alternative infrastructure and policies Allows for specification of social values, such as low pricing for the poor and setting aside water for environmental purposes Can evaluate impacts of different scales of water availability – and even water rights.

MYWAS–WEAP MYWAS-WEAP will be a major assistance in planning - PWA will be able to identify practical / feasible projects. MYWAS-WEAP enables the cost-benefit analysis of water infrastructure projects; it maximizes the net benefits to be obtained from the available water while taking into account water's special social values as specified by the user. MYWAS-WEAP permits the examination of the system- wide benefits and costs of proposed infrastructure projects and assists in the choice of which ones to build, when to build them, and to what capacity.

Running MYWAS from WEAP Interface for MYWAS data input create GAMS input files Optimize allocation of water read GAMS output files View MYWAS outputs

Definitions MYWAS – Multi-Year Water Allocation System An innovative modeling tool that optimizes net benefits to be achieved from water subject to the policies and values imposed by the model user/stakeholder. Programmed in GAMS GAMS – General Algebraic Modeling System A high-level modeling system for mathematical optimization. WEAP – Water Evaluation And Planning System An integrated water resources planning tool. Adaptable to varying levels of data availability and system sophistication. Python A general purpose, high-level programming language.

Why link MYWAS and WEAP? MYWAS can be run simply as GAMS code. However, WEAP provides an interface which: Simplifies the process of updating input files Facilitates the evaluation of different management scenarios Allows for the viewing of MYWAS results

MYWAS-WEAP The most important distinction between MYWAS and WEAP is that MYWAS goes much further than WEAP in looking at the role and impact of social policies, including subsidies and tariffs, and how these play out system-wide. WEAP only tells you about water use – not water demand – which is an understanding of the value of water for each sector. S The combination of MYWAS and WEAP actually gives policy advice and thus makes a very powerful tool both internally and externally donors and banks for making decitions about funding the best investments in the water sector. de.

Two general approaches Make an accounting of the various components of costs and values and compare them Model the entire system of demands, supplies, along with social and ecological values

Economic Optimization A country or region can be divided into governorates or units that capture the distribution of demands and supplies. With this, the optimal allocation of water is achieved – one that maximizes the social welfare.

Entering Data into MYWAS-WEAP WEAP model objects have built-in parameters that allow the user to describe physical capacities, cost of transmission, and factors influencing water demand

Entering Data into MYWAS-WEAP The WEAP interface has model objects of water supply and demand that facilitate the construction of a model schematic

Step 7: Results of Current account (Base Year 2010)

Scenarios as Tools Three main basic scenarios have been developed considering the political and economic uncertainties as the two main driving forces to the development of the Palestinian future water sector These three scenarios are: 1- No Action Scenario (Status Quo-Crossroads) 2- Full Application of Oslo Agreement Scenario 3- Palestinian Spring Scenario

1- No Action Scenario (Crossroads) This scenario assumes no real additional quantities of water to be allocated to the Palestinians which reflects somehow the present situation. Under this scenario, some mitigation measures are being considered (increasing pumping rates, water conservation, minimize losses, enhance roof top rain water harvesting. The time horizon for this scenario will be the year 2025.

2- Full Application of Oslo Agreement Scenario Under this scenario, additional quantities of water will be allocated to the Palestinians. These quantities are estimated based on the fact that Israel would fulfill its obligations according to the Oslo Agreement. The time horizon for this scenario will be the year 2025.

3- Palestinian Spring Scenario This scenario assumes that Palestinians will have their own independent State and will be entitled to develop their own water resources according to International Law and Principles. Two time horizons are assumed: 2025 when Palestinians will develop part of their resources 2040 when we will be able to develop all our water resources

National-Regional possibilities Potential for joint decision-making regarding trans-boundary issues and projects with Jordan and even Lebanon The incorporation of the AGSM model in MYWAS, a model that deals with agriculture,costs and benefits. Can be used for cropping patterns. GMS/MODFLOW – incorporation of existing aquifer models for more detailed and precise analysis of production potentials and well coordinates. Fashkha Springs along north-west banks of Dead Sea and other development schemes can be studied by applying a wide range of scenarios.

Every Water Drop in Palestine Counts Since most of Palestine’s water resources are controlled by Israelis, the remaining available Palestinian quantities need to be managed with a reliable and economic approach. An economic systems approach like MYWAS gives the most comprehensive picture of the best investments and policy choices in the water sector..

Acknowledgment PWA is grateful for the Czech Development Agency’s support beginning in 2008 for the first phase of the “WAS” and then for “MYWAS”. This support has motivated and allowed PWA to gather and update national data in the water sector – firstly for entry into the MYWAS model – but maybe even more important – data that is and will be a foundation for the water data bank.

Thank you