1. Drivers of change

Drivers of change 1.1. Livestock at the crossroads 1.2. Livestock for development 1.3. Globalisation of the livestock industry 1.4. Regionalisation vs globalisation

1.1. Livestock at the crossroads Livestock Revolution: livestock production has to double Livestock’s Long Shadow: environmental impact livestock Competing claims on rural areas A call for socially desirable livestock systems: a license to produce Poverty alleviation and food security

Livestock Revolution 1.3. Globalisation

Livestock Revolution

FAO analysis of 88 countries: population growth: 77% increase in meat consumption and 86% increase in milk consumption E and SE Asia also change in diet (fruits&vegetables, milk&meat) Be cautious about generalizing global data Mainly industrial systems are meeting the increased demand Mixed farming will remain the dominant farming system Increasing demands vs food security and livelihoods: 1.2. Livestock for development

Livestock’s Long Shadow 2006 April Livestock and the Environment

Competing claims on rural areas Landscape: open silent and quiet

Competing claims on rural areas 1.4. Regionalisation vs globalisation - Multi-functional livestock systems as response to the limits of modernization - Hobby farming, nature grazing, care farming, organic farming: also in other FLS sections, just as conventional farming. - How can we maintain all functions, including agriculture, within our rural areas?

Socially desirable livestock systems 3. Livestock and society License to produce Political pressure ‘Mega-farms’, agro parks, or both not? ‘Rural development’

Political pressures: Quest for sustainability Europe: the paradigm of modernization through industrialisation is questioned Developments worldwide: -first government stimulates modernization -negative effects and criticism from society -government starts to take regulatory measures -time lag: the Netherlands, 10 y

Mission statement Dutch ministry: towards a sustainable animal husbandry Challenges: globalisation, climate change, from quantity to quality, aging, urbanisation How: System innovations Health & welfare Societal embedding Energy & environment Market & entrepreneurship Consumer responsibilities Summary is in the reader!

Mission statement Dutch ministry: towards a sustainable animal husbandry Animal production respectful towards men, animals and environment all over the world Projects in EU countries have to be developed in this context!

Other mission statements Farmers’ organisation LTO: Innovation and sustainability the key issues Family farms the mainstay 2020: 75% cattle grazing, farmers manage the majority of the rural areas Closed nutrient cycles Sustainable energy use and reduction in greenhouse gases Committee van Doorn: future of intensive livestock farming All chain partners signed the Convention of Den Bosch Transform the livestock sector into a sustainable sector friendly to the three Ps Human health Reduction antibiotics Animal welfare and health Manure and the environment

Other mission statements Plea wide group of Dutch scientists: Consumption animal products should be reduced Animal welfare the focal point No antibiotics or hormones Closed nutrient cycles the norm Megafarms not allowed Farmers a decent living Answer Animal Sciences group: Livestock farming with care Public health: food safety and security Quality of the environment Respect for the individual animal Modern entrepreneurship considers requirements of the animals, society, environment and the farmer

Livestock farming with care One of its results: a collection of essays on options and prospects helping to inform and enrich the debate. There is not one answer: strength in diversity

Political pressures: Poverty alleviation and food security 1 billion people are food insecure 2 billion people are extremely poor

Political pressures: Poverty alleviation Millennium Development Goals, see reader Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Achieve universal primary education Promote gender equality and empower women Reduce child mortality Improve maternal health Combat HIV, malaria, other diseases Ensure environmental sustainability Develop a global partnership for development Each goal has several targets

MDGs Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger: number of people with less than 1$ should be halved in 2015 Half of the rural population is food insecure Three quarters keep livestock They produce 60% of the meat and 75% of the milk in developing and transforming countries Livestock is a livelihood asset: employment, income, high quality nutrients, supporting crop production Livestock should not be fed with food products

MDGs Promote gender equality and empower women Animals often the responsibility of women Access to and control of products and income? Livestock innovations add to workload women Ensure environmental sustainability Manure, Traction, Genetic resources with unique qualities Greenhouse gas emissions, Pollution, Biodiversity Projects in developing or transforming countries have to contribute to MDGs

Livestock at the crossroads There are myths There are paradoxes Choices are needed for which development pathway to follow New systems are needed that go beyond common dilemma’s Strength in diversity

GRAZING SYSTEMS SPECIALIZED CROP SYSTEMS SPECIALIZED CROPS INDUSTRIAL LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS MIXED SYSTEMS CROP SYSTEMS SPECIALIZED LIVESTOCK Area - wide crop and livestock integration New functions Intensification Specialization Organization Drivers: population pressure, economic growth IntensificationInvolution Nutrient depletion Nutrient surplus Health&Welfare Societal acceptance Development Pathways Farming Systems 22

high- tech multifunct. landuse intensification diversity comm.p&p dairying smallholder dairy, p&p ranching mixed farming pastoralism free-range p&p EUDev. Countries, NIC’s sustainable conventional systems organic farming social care farming nature farming hobby diversity intensification Future Livestock Systems