Kenya Population Factors and the National Vision Presenter: 2 Photo by Felix Masi

Outline 3 The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation Population and Social and Economic Development Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services Policy Response Outline

Kenya National Vision 4 Vision 2030 “To transform Kenya into a globally competitive, newly industrializing, middle-income country and provide a high quality of life to all of its citizens in a clean and secure environment.” Photo by Chubby Chandru Vision

Economy and Society 5 How will population growth affect Kenya’s economic growth and social development in the coming decades? 5 Photo by Zoriah Population

1999 Kenya’s Population Population Million Source: 1999 Census

2008 Kenya’s Population Population 7 Source: CBS Population Projections 38.3 Million

Current Situation Population Statistics 8 38 million people (2008) 4.6 births per woman (2008) 23% teens ages 15–19 bear children 40% population under age 15 Population Sources: Spectrum; DHS 2003, 2008 Photo by Felix Masi

Trend in Fertility Kenya, 1989–2008 Population 9 Sources: Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys Fertility Rate

40% of the population is under age 15 Population Pyramid Kenya’s Youth Bulge Population –79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4 Age (Years) Per cent of the Population Female Male Source: Spectrum

Under Current Fertility Rate Population Explosion by 2040 Population 11 Population (Millions) High Fertility Low Fertility Source: Spectrum 82 Million People …

Demographic Transition By Assuming a Decline in Fertility 65 Million People Population 12 Population (Millions) High Fertility Low Fertility Source: Spectrum

Outline 13 The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation Population and Social and Economic Development Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services Policy Response Outline

Africa can learn from East Asia on economic growth Development 14

Economic Benefit Slower population growth increases the opportunity for economic growth. A decline in fertility can be a way out of poverty for many families. 15 Sources: Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World and Population Dynamics and Economic Development: Filling the Research Gaps. Photo by Mothers Fighting for Others

Success Story Thailand, An Asian Tiger Development Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, GDP Per Capita (US$2000) Fertility Rate

Declining Fertility The “Asian Miracle” Development 17 Population quality versus size Better education More investment in modern agriculture More savings and investment, lower dependency ratios Photo by Uggboy

Outline 18 The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation Population and Social and Economic Development Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services Policy Response

Social Pillar Vision 2030 “Kenya’s journey towards widespread prosperity involves the building of a just and cohesive society that enjoys equitable social development in a clean and secure environment.” 19 Photo by Center for Communications Programs

Population Growth Two Scenarios Population 20 Population (Millions) High Fertility Low Fertility Source: Spectrum

Education 21 Photos by Zoriah; Center for Communications Programs “ The education and training of all Kenyans is fundamental to the success of the Vision. ” Vision 2030

Source: Spectrum Primary Students Fewer Students, More Resources Available per Child Education 22 High Fertility Low Fertility Primary Students (Millions)

Sources: Spectrum; Ministry of Education Primary Teachers Fewer Students, Fewer Teachers Required Education 23 High Fertility Low Fertility Teachers Needed (Thousands)

Primary Education Expenditures Education 24 Cumulative Savings US$772 Million Expenditures ($US Millions) Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009 High Fertility Low Fertility Savings with Slower Population Growth

Better Education With Less Population Pressure Education 25 More resources for training and teacher incentives More resources for classrooms and educational material Smaller classrooms and better learning environments Progress on MDGs 2: Achieve universal primary education Photo by Rebecca Mbuy_Brown

Health 26 Photo by Mothers Fighting for Others (top) and the Department for International Development (DFID) (bottom) Kenya’s vision for health is to provide “equitable and affordable health care at the highest affordable standard” to her citizens. Vision 2030

Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009 Nurses Less Pressure on Health Providers Health 27 Nurses Needed (Thousands) High Fertility Low Fertility

Sources: Spectrum; Health Sector Facts and Figures Health Centres Less Pressure on Health Facilities Health 28 High Fertility Low Fertility Health Centres Needed

Health Expenditures Increase in Savings Health 29 Cumulative Savings US$500 million Expenditures (US$ Billions) High Fertility Low Fertility Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey

Birth Spacing Reduces Infant Deaths Health 30 Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births Months Since Last Birth

Improved Health With Less Population Pressure Health 31 More resources to train staff and retain staff Fewer maternal and child deaths Longer life expectancy Progress on MDGs 4: Reduce child mortality 5: Reduce maternal mortality 6: Combat HIV/AIDS and malaria Photo by Mothers Fighting for Others (top), Angela Sevin (bottom)

Water Sustainability 32 Photo by Felix Masi The Vision for the water and sanitation sector is “to ensure water and improved sanitation availability and access to all by 2030.”

Water Consumption Water 33 Water Consumption (Billion Liters) Low Fertility High Fertility Less Consumption with Lower Fertility Sources: Spectrum; Water Services Strategy

Urbanisation 34 Photo by Mark Auer “Kenya has so far been unable to plan adequately in order to accommodate her increasing urban population. It must now do so under the Vision 2030.” Urbanisation

Urban Population Urbanisation Trend Urbanisation 35 Urban Population (Millions) High Fertility Low Fertility Sources: Spectrum; Vision 2030

Rapid growth puts increasing pressure on urban infrastructure. 36 Photo by Felix Masi

Urban Housing Fewer New Units Required by 2040 Urbanisation 37 New Housing Units Required (Millions) Sources: Spectrum; KDHS 2003 High Fertility Low Fertility

Economic Pillar Vision 2030 “To maintain sustained economic growth of 10% per annum until 2030.” Economy 38 Photos by K Burns, Leila Darabi, K Burns (top to bottom)

Economy Six key sectors have been identified to deliver the economic growth envisaged under the economic pillar: tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, business process outsourcing (BPO), and financial services. Economy 39 Photos by Meaduva, David Blume, Angeli Kirk (top to bottom)

Economic View Economy 40 Source: Kenya Vision 2030 GDP Growth Rate (%) GDP Growth Rate

GDP Per Capita 10% Growth Rate Economy 41 Constant Year 2008 US$ High Fertility Low Fertility Source: Spectrum

GDP Per Capita 4% Growth Rate Economy 42 Constant Year 2008 US$ High Fertility Low Fertility

Better Economy With Less Population Pressure Economy 43 More funding for social sector Greater disposable family income for education and health Lower youth unemployment Greater stability Progress on MDGs 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Photos by Karl Mueller, Hodag, The World Bank (top to bottom)

Agriculture and the Environment 44 Photo by Felix Masi “Agriculture is a mainstay of the Kenyan economy.” Vision 2030

Food Requirements Agriculture 45 *Assumes consumption per capita stays at 2007 levels Sources: Spectrum; MOA: Economic Review of Agriculture Maize Required (Billion Tonnes) High Fertility Low Fertility Less Food Required at Lower Fertility Rate Actual Production

Land Fragmentation Higher Population, Less Land per Holder Land holdings divided among more family members Lower productivity from small farms—less food security Less food per person Agriculture 46 Photo by The Curt CarnemarkWorld Bank Issue #1

Lower Productivity Environmental Degradation Higher Population Leads to Overuse Overexploitation Deforestation Erosion Less soil fertility 47 Issue #2 Photo by Chubby Chandru

Better Agriculture Less Pressure on Resources Used to … Modernise Fertilise for higher yields Improve family nutrition Reduce environmental degradation Progress on MDGs 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Agriculture 48 Photo by The World Bank

Political Pillar 49 Photo by Zoriah “… moving to the future as one nation.” Vision 2030

Population and Stability Youth Bulge Links between population growth and stability Conflict over resources Equity issues Research has found that: Youth bulges and armed conflict are strongly correlated 50 Conflict and Equity Photo by Eirasinn

New Job Requirements Economy New Jobs Required (Thousands) 51 Fewer Jobs Needed High Fertility Low Fertility Sources: Spectrum; World Development Indicators

Outline 52 The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation Population and Social and Economic Development Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services Policy Response Outline

Family Planning Kenya 53 Primary factor to lower growth Many women want to delay or limit births but are not using family planning. Family Planning Almost 1 in 2 births are unintended or arrive too soon Photo by Gunnar Salvarsson Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey

Family Planning Embedded in the Culture 46% of married women of reproductive age use family planning. Family Planning Source: 2008 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 54 Photo by Kitui

Trends in Family Planning Use Over Time Family Planning Sources: Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys 55 Percent

Family Planning Unmet Need 56 Family Planning Sources: Demographic and Health Surveys Percent 1 in 4 women want to space or limit births but are not using family planning

Outline 57 The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation Population and Social and Economic Development Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services Policy Response Outline

25% of married women want to space or limit births but are not using family planning. Policy Response Unmet Need High Demand in Kenya 58 Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey

Improving access to and use of high-quality, affordable FP services: … will help satisfy unmet need… …resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growth… …thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision Conclusions FP and the National Vision 59 Photo by Wendy McNaughton

Why and How to Act Cost of Inaction Increases with Time Policy Response 60 There is high population growth, an unbalanced age distribution, and high unmet need for family planning 46% of women already use family planning Potential for increased use is large (25% unmet need) Political will is present Service networks are established and developing Increase funding for family planning Ensure the availability of family planning commodities Expand access via community-based distribution and public and private clinics Improve information, education, and communication around family planning ISSUE OPPORTUNITY READINESS ACTIONS

Thank You 61 Population Factors and the National Vision Kenya 61 Photo by Zoriah Support for this presentation was provided by the USAID | Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1