John Ferree NWS Severe Storms Services Leader Warning Improvements Second Workshop on Severe Weather Technology for NWS Warning Decision Making Tuesday, July 10, 2007 John Ferree NWS Severe Storms Services Leader May 8, 2003

Some Things to Think About How does the technology discussed assist in other high impact events? Hurricanes, Volcanoes, Accidents, Terrorism What are the roles of partners in defining requirements? What are the impacts of changes in dissemination technology? How do we improve on our best performances? First and Last Slide

Can We Do Better? Warning Performance on March 12, 2006 95 Tornado Events POD = 99% Tornado Average Lead Time = 23.1 min Tornado FAR = 68%

Quote from an Emergency Manager “For my purposes, (severe thunderstorm and tornado) watches aren’t that useful. Usually, they are too early. I don’t want to deploy spotters and have them wait four hours for the weather. Warnings are always too late. Give us about an hour lead time before the severe storms get here.” As a backdrop for the discussion – just a reminder of what our mission is within NOAA/NWS – and that the mission encompasses protection of life and property AND enhancement of the economy. I’ll describe how SR Warnings will result in such economic enhancement – in addition to the obvious first priority of saving lives.

Science, Technology, Societal Impacts Collide

Inclusive – Anybody can throw in an idea! Formal Gates

OSIP Projects in this Presentation 05-080 | Storm-Based Warnings 06-056 | Synchronization of preliminary LSR and Storm Data Event Types 04-008 | Next Generation Warning Tool

A Few Other Projects of Interest

05-080 | Storm-Based Warnings Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms More specific Increased clarity Supports new dissemination technology The next several slides will address the reason WHY the NWS is going to a SBW system. First, here is an example to illustrate some of the benefits of going from county-based warning to storm-based warnings. In this case, there were actually three significant tornadoes on the ground at the same time. Eight counties were included in tornado warnings, with almost a million people under a tornado warning. With storm-based tornado warnings, only those area that are threatened are in the warning, not the entire county. In this case, 70 percent less area was covered by warnings, and approximately 600,000 fewer people would encouraged to take immediate cover. A test of storm-based warnings in 2005, actually showed that warning area could be reduced by around 70 percent. There are several other benefits to going to storm-based warnings including being able to increase specificity and clarity with the warning. Since any particular community will be under warning less on average in the new storm-based system, the hope is that over time confidence in NWS warnings will increase, and those under warning will be more likely to take action. The more geographically based warnings also are supported by new dissemination technologies. County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned

Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases

Storm-Based = GIS Based WFO Fort Worth is combining SB warnings and U.S. Census information. It is valuable to know if an area has a high percentage of citizens who are elderly or English is a second language.

Digital Emergency Alert System (DEAS) Increased Direct Dissemination Any digital device Digital TV Satellite Radio Internet Cell Phone PDA Geo-located Text, Audio, Video The previous slide showed how our SB warnings can now be displayed on a number of devices. A recent NSF study shows a majority of Americans now obtain weather information via the internet and TV. More difficult is how to describe a SB warning via text or voice. For now, EAS still warns entire counties, including NWR. DEAS is under development for possible implementation in 2008 and will go a long way towards solving this problem by immediately activating devices within geo-targeted area. Of course, that could include devices which are in moving vehicles with enter SB warned areas. To start plotting a course towards the future, a dissemination workshop was recently held at TAMU with participation by federal, state and local EM staff. Purpose: Discuss how warnings can become more machine readable for rapid transmission over a variety of digital devices.

Outstanding Issues for Storm-Based Warnings County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries Multiple warnings in a county CAP format Local Storm Report (LSR) improvements Here are four outstanding issues for storm-based warnings that we are targeting for improvement in the upcoming year.

County Warning Area Boundaries Madison Bond Clinton Fayette Marion St. Clair Washington Randolph Perry Jackson Franklin Jefferson Hamilton Williamson Saline Wayne Clay STL PAH ILX St. Louis CWA Paducah CWA Lincoln CWA There are challenges for storm-based warnings that still need to be worked out. In the example the tornadic storm is in Randolph County, IL with is in the St. Louis NWS office forecast and warning area. The storm will be moving NE and impact both portions of Perry County, IL that is in Paducah’s County Warning Area (CWA). In this example, ,having multiple warnings for Randolph, Washington, and Perry county is not ideal. It would be better if the one office could issue a storm-based warning for the entire area. To do this will take extensive operational testing to make sure there is adequate collaboration between offices, and that all dissemination systems are prepared to handle this issue.

County Warning Area Boundaries ILX Bond Fayette Madison Clay STL Marion St. Louis CWA Paducah CWA Lincoln CWA Clinton Issued by PAH St. Clair Wayne Issued by STL Washington Jefferson There are challenges for storm-based warnings that still need to be worked out. In the example the tornadic storm is in Randolph County, IL with is in the St. Louis NWS office forecast and warning area. The storm will be moving NE and impact both portions of Perry County, IL that is in Paducah’s County Warning Area (CWA). In this example, ,having multiple warnings for Randolph, Washington, and Perry county is not ideal. It would be better if the one office could issue a storm-based warning for the entire area. To do this will take extensive operational testing to make sure there is adequate collaboration between offices, and that all dissemination systems are prepared to handle this issue. Perry Hamilton Randolph PAH Franklin Jackson Saline Williamson

Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish Issue for text, radio, TV crawls Add reference to other valid warnings Include counties with directional delimiters? Summary severe weather statements? Bond Fayette Madison Marion Clinton SVR until 3:45PM St. Clair Washington Jefferson A challenge for the listening audience or text only users is when there are multiple warnings over the same county, there is a potential for confusion. In the example, when a listener in Washington county hears that the tornado warning has expired at 3:30PM they will also need to know that the severe thunderstorm warning continues until 3:45PM. This may require a list of other valid warnings appended to each warning at issuance. Another consideration yet to be determined is if there will be summary severe weather statements when multiple warnings are in effect? These are all ideas that will be tested first in simulations, and then in limited real-time situations in consultation with the private sector prior to nationwide deployment. TOR until 3:30PM Perry Randolph Franklin Jackson Williamson

Federal Communications Commission Announcement CAP Format “The Order requires EAS participants to accept messages using Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)…to ensure the efficient and rapid transmission of EAS alerts to the American public in a variety of formats (including text, audio and video) and via different means (broadcast, cable, satellite, and other networks) and to promote the development of Next Generation EAS.” Federal Communications Commission Announcement May 31, 2007 A related project is to put our warnings in CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) format. This will benefit storm-based warnings by making the warning area digitally available to a wider office, and more flexible to add information. http://www.eic.org/docs/FCCCAPEASnotice.pdf

Local Storm Report Improvements NWSI 10-512 page 12 Why so many other LSR programs? SevereClear WHIRL WarnSpot More… Section 5.2.1 Creation Software. WFOs should use the AWIPS LSR generation software for reports.

06-056 | Local Storm Reports Individual report output with VTEC ETN Accurate corrections Cumulative report output One line per report (15 reports in 15 lines) Flexible time range (severe reports 18Z – 21Z) Flexible report type (snowfall accumulation) CAP/XML Format Integrates with StormData Timeliness and accuracy of Local Storm Reports will be an emphasis during the next year. We are also working on some substantial improvements to the LSR listed here.

06-056 | Local Storm Reports Run from AWIPS or PC Point and Click Map Google Earth Type GIS Lat/Lon is report location Direction from town/landmark is only an estimate Support Street Addresses Overlays with warnings, reports, mesoscale data, radar data, etc. Integrates with

Current Efforts SevereClear – Jason Burks (Huntville ITO) ? - Alaska SIB (WFO Friendly) IEM COW – Daryl Herzmann (Iowa State) WarnSpot – Greg Garrett (Jackson SOO) WHIRL – Matthew Sardi and Steven Fano (FTW) National Performance Management Committee

Proposal for Short Term National support for a local PC based application Similar to GHG development Chose the best Developer input Work Team Implement with training by Jan. 1, 2008

Proposal for Long Term Begin OSIP project for Next Generation LSR system Link with Next Generation Warning Tool development Target first opportunity in AWIPS 2 Architecture

04-008 Next Generation Warning Tool Need for a consistent user interface WarnGen GHG River Pro Allow forecasters to focus on what, where and when of warnings Formatting tools deliver content that is consistent and meets needs of users Hazard Grid in GHG

Additional Benefits of NGWT Minimize training, support resources Foundation for future requirements Allow long fuse warnings to leverage the digital forecast process Anticipate changes in formats and allow greater geographical specificity

Summary and Discussion Storm-Based Warnings Local Storm Reports Next Generation Warning Tool Others? Contact Information Email: John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov Phone: 405-325-2209

More Discussion Topics How does the technology discussed assist in other high impact events? Hurricanes, Volcanoes, Accidents, Terrorism What are the roles of partners in defining requirements? What are the impacts of changes in dissemination technology? How do we improve on our best performances? First and Last Slide

Backup Slides

Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance Measures FY06 FY07 (new) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 75 76 Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 78 Tornado Lead Time (min.) 13 Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 67 69 70 72 Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 74 Storm-Based Tornado Lead Time (min.) 11 12 Because SB represents such a big change in the way we issue warnings, the way in which we evaluate our performance must also change. The existing performance targets are shown at the top of the table; the new SB targets at the bottom. These go into effect Oct. 1. Missed Accuracy – long hot summer resulting in more pulse-type unpredictable storms rather than organized lines. Record hot June A little discussion: If you think of an archer shooting at a target, if you reduce the size of the target, there will be more misses. So, we’ve set our accuracy target lower in 2008 and beyond to reflect this, with expected improvements back towards current values as our forecasters become more experienced with SB warning use. Lead Time may also fall statistically because a “miss” is assigned a “zero lead time”. But we expect FAR may actually improve right off the bat – there are actually trade-offs between “false positives” and “false negatives” as shown in the next two slides. The new numbers are based on an entirely different system and still represent a tremendous service improvement. The apparently falling numbers simply represent that we’ve just set the bar much higher for ourselves. Government Performance Results Act (GPRA) Tornado Warning Performance Goals

Feature Tracking Added Location and motion of feature Estimated location of tornado, leading edge of gust front, leading edge of hail core, or other. AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AKRON AND 8 MILES WEST OF LATNER BY 500 PM MST LAT...LON 4031 10316 4011 10303 3998 10346 4014 10356 TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 18KT 4010 10340 The only major change prior to the implementation is the addition of the feature location and movement in coded format below the latitude and longitude of the polygon vertices. Other enhancements are likely and we will rely on input from the Weather Enterprise for guidance.

OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings Better Matching along CWA Boundary

OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings New Multi-Colored Warning Displays with Frequent Updating

OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings Can’t expand an existing warning

OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings What you hatch is what you get!

OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings What you hatch is what you get! Redo Box

OB8.2 Proposed Changes for Storm-Based Warnings Collaboration polygons Separate land/marine warnings - one polygon FFMP basin map available with WarnGen Add section in text listing other existing warnings in same counties Depiction of archived warnings – pick list

TDWR Data Access Expanding

TDWR Central Data Collection KGSP WSR-88D TCLT TDWR

RDA/RPG Build 9.0 Deployed April-November Sachidananda-Zrnic (SZ) 2 Algorithm Applied only to Split Cut elevations (“2” for two rotations) Implemented on lowest 2 or 3 elevations of specific VCPs 211, 212, 221 Significantly greater velocity data recovery Can often recover velocity from two overlaid trips

Legacy VCPs

VCP 211 SZ-2 VCPs VCP 212 VCP 221

SZ-2 Performance Same Antenna Legacy Range Unfolding SZ-2

SZ-2 Performance Separate (but close!) Antennas Legacy Range Unfolding SZ-2

Four-Dimensional Stormcell Investigator (FSI) Can update X-Section line by dragging reference points 2D and 3D pictures are linked Other representations update on-the-fly The Lemon Technique

FSI Configuration FSIalpha will have a linked 4-panel design: PPI Plan Position Indicator VDX Vertical Dynamic X-Section CAPPI Constant Altitude PPI 3D Flier Three- Dimensional Flier

Summary of Benefits of FSI Improved vertical cross-sections Constant Altitude cross-sections (CAPPIs) 3D visualization Virtual Volumes Access to entire data inventory

Radar Improvements in 2008 Three new Super Resolution Digital Base Products (SDR, SDV, SDW) 0.5 degree azimuths 0.25 kilometer reflectivity to 460 km 0.25 velocity & spectrum width to 300 km All elevation cuts at and below 1.8 deg Both Precipitation Mode and Clear Air Mode VCP 122 Improved version of VCP 121 For the Split Cut tilts, there is one SZ-2 Doppler rotation along with a second CD rotation

Super Resolution Reflectivity 0.5 deg Super Resolution Z 0.5 deg Normal Z

Super Resolution Velocity 0.5 deg Super Resolution V 0.5 deg Normal V

www.weather.gov/sbwarnings For additional information, including information on progress on the issues presented in this presentation see our web site at www.weather.gov/sbwarnings