Kimberly Gordon Policy Analyst, Duke University CFMC Meeting June 28-29, 2011

Major Workshop Outcomes Major Workshop Outcomes Data-Poor Approaches Recap Data-Poor Approaches Recap Ecological Risk Assessment (ERAEF) Ecological Risk Assessment (ERAEF) Concept Concept Process Process Lessons learned/words of wisdom Lessons learned/words of wisdom Resources Resources

Major Outcomes Major Outcomes Goals and Recommendations Goals and Recommendations Materials and Presentations Materials and Presentations Final Report Final Report Intention Intention Structure Structure

4 Innovative Data-Poor Approaches Spawning Potential Ratio Decision Tree Spawning Potential Ratio Decision Tree Dr. Jeremy Prince Dr. Jeremy Prince Marine Reserve-based Decision Tree Marine Reserve-based Decision Tree Jono Wilson Jono Wilson Ecological Risk Assessment For the Effects of Fishing Ecological Risk Assessment For the Effects of Fishing Ross Daley Ross Daley Density Ratio Control Rule Density Ratio Control Rule Dr. Elizabeth Babcock Dr. Elizabeth Babcock

Developed by CSIRO in Australia Developed by CSIRO in Australia 4 -Step Hierarchical Framework that provides a comprehensive risk assessment 4 -Step Hierarchical Framework that provides a comprehensive risk assessment Risk – the probability that a (specified) fishery management objective is not achieved (Hobday, 2011) Risk – the probability that a (specified) fishery management objective is not achieved (Hobday, 2011)

ERAEF Evaluates 5 Ecological Components: Target Species Target Species Byproduct and Bycatch Species Byproduct and Bycatch Species Threatened, Endangered and Protected (TEP) Species Threatened, Endangered and Protected (TEP) Species Habitat Habitat Ecological Communities Ecological Communities

LEVEL 1: Qualitative Negligible, low risk Medium, high risk Risk Management Response LEVEL 2: Semi-quantitative Negligible, low risk Medium, high risk Negligible, low risk Medium, high risk LEVEL 3: Quantitative SCOPING $$ $ $$$ DATA DATA DataDataDataDataData TIME TIME TimeTimeTimeTimeTime

Develop a profile of the fishery (sub- fishery) being assessed Description of fishery Description of fishery Units of Analysis Units of Analysis Management Objectives Management Objectives Activities/Hazards Activities/Hazards

 Description of fishery General fishery characteristics General fishery characteristics Gear Gear Issues Issues Management Management Data Data *Template available

 Units of Analysis Target Species Byproduct/Bycatch TEP Species Habitat Ecological Communities Species / Stocks Pelagic / Benthic Species Distribution & Biotic Elements & Biotic Elements

 Management Objectives Set management objectives for each sub-fishery for each component Core Objectives Core Objectives What are you trying to achieve? Operational Objectives Operational Objectives What are your measureable endpoints?

 Activities/Hazards Absence/Presence for Capture Capture Direct impact without capture Direct impact without capture Addition of biological material Addition of biological material Addition of non biological material Addition of non biological material Distribution of physical processes Distribution of physical processes External hazards External hazards Activities/Hazards identified as present are analyzed at level 1 *Template available

Scale Intensity Consequence Analysis (SICA) Identifies which activities/hazards lead to significant impact to any component Rapid screening tool Rapid screening tool Looks at “worst case” scenarios within each component Looks at “worst case” scenarios within each component

Scale Intensity Consequence Analysis (SICA) Exposure – Effects risk assessment ScaleIntensityConsequence * Scoring guidelines & workbook available Exposure Effects

Scale Intensity Consequence Analysis (SICA) Consequence of Intensity Scoring LevelScore Negligible1 Minor2 Moderate3 Major4 Severe5 Intolerable6 Screened Out Level 2

Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) Comprehensive risk screening for all units within the ecological components Productivity: The rate the unit can recover from fishing activities Productivity: The rate the unit can recover from fishing activities Susceptibility: Susceptibility of the unit to fishing activities Susceptibility: Susceptibility of the unit to fishing activities *Excel workbook templates available

Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) Productivity Productivity Attribute Score Average age at maturityLow (1) – High (3) Average size at maturityLow (1) – High (3) Average maximum ageLow (1) – High (3) Average maximum sizeLow (1) – High (3) FecundityLow (1) – High (3) Reproductive strategyLow (1) – High (3) Trophic levelLow (1) – High (3) Averaged to determine overall score

Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) Susceptibility Susceptibility AttributeScore AvailabilityHigh (1) – Low (3) EncounterabilityHigh (1) – Low (3) SelectivityHigh (1) – Low (3) Post Capture MortalityHigh (1) – Low (3) Multiplied to determine overall score

Fully Quantitative Assessment ERAEF process will provide guidance on appropriate methods for assessment

So how does this actually work?

LEVEL 1: Qualitative LEVEL 2: Semi-quantitative SCOPING DATA DATA TIME TIME PROCESS PROCESS -Gathering information and workshops -Scoping documents, checklists, worksheets -Workshops -Scoring guidelines and spreadsheets -Database-Workshops ESTIMATES!!!???? ? Days to weeks for each species 2 day workshop Two workshops (4-5 days each) 2-3 weeks or months 1 day/species 1 day/species Basic fishery information -Stock structure – stock range (consensus map of fishery) -Existing data -Expert judgment/stakeholder input -Spatial, temporal, effort -Expert judgment/stakeholder input **Comprehensive database of the biological attributes for species -Working group & group leader -Identify fishery to evaluate *Revise worksheets/scoping documents -Plan process and timelines -Identify data gaps

Cost effective Cost effective Transparent & repeatable process Transparent & repeatable process Clearly documented Clearly documented Flexible Flexible Precautionary Precautionary Comprehensive Comprehensive Stakeholder engagement Stakeholder engagement Consensus building Consensus building

Precautionary approach can lead to false positives in level 2 - PSA Precautionary approach can lead to false positives in level 2 - PSA Level 2 – PSA usually focuses on fishing impacts Level 2 – PSA usually focuses on fishing impacts Level 2 – PSA also ignores some management measures in place to manage risk Level 2 – PSA also ignores some management measures in place to manage risk Integration across fisheries/components Integration across fisheries/components

Learning curve with the method Learning curve with the method Clear documentation on the rationale behind scoring decisions in level 1 Clear documentation on the rationale behind scoring decisions in level 1 Consult experts for initial guidance and training Consult experts for initial guidance and training Utilize independent consultant to lead the group Utilize independent consultant to lead the group Decide up front what to do if you can’t reach consensus in scoping or level 1 Decide up front what to do if you can’t reach consensus in scoping or level 1

Incorporate a representative group of stakeholders in the process to build consensus Incorporate a representative group of stakeholders in the process to build consensus Good communication is key – keep everyone informed at every step Good communication is key – keep everyone informed at every step Set yourself up for success Set yourself up for success

Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism Spiny lobster – lack of basic data Spiny lobster – lack of basic data Dolphinfish – level 1 SICA this month, level 2 PSA next year Dolphinfish – level 1 SICA this month, level 2 PSA next year Limited personnel Limited personnel Chose ERAEF to establish a foundation of information Chose ERAEF to establish a foundation of information

Literature and ERAEF reports Literature and ERAEF reports Websites Websites CSIRO research team CSIRO research team Consultants with expertise Consultants with expertise Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism

Presentation References/Resources: Ross Daley, Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO) Workshop presentation and personal communication Ross Daley, Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO) Workshop presentation and personal communication Hobday et al. (2011). Ecological risk assessment for the effects of fishing. Fisheries Research, 108, Hobday et al. (2011). Ecological risk assessment for the effects of fishing. Fisheries Research, 108, Hobday et al. (2007) Ecological Risk Assessment for the Effects of Fishing: Methodology. Report R04/1072 for the Australian Fisheries Management Authority, Canberra. Hobday et al. (2007) Ecological Risk Assessment for the Effects of Fishing: Methodology. Report R04/1072 for the Australian Fisheries Management Authority, Canberra. Dr. Bob Trumble, MRAG Americas, personal communication Dr. Bob Trumble, MRAG Americas, personal communication Dr. Susan Renton, Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism (CRFM), personal communication Dr. Susan Renton, Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism (CRFM), personal communication

Some things to consider: SEDAR Process SEDAR Process Leveraging Experts Leveraging Experts Building Capacity Building Capacity Partnerships within the Caribbean Partnerships within the Caribbean

QUESTIONS?