1 International Comparative Data for Research and Policy on Aging James P. Smith

2 What Will (Mostly) Determine the Future of the World? The Aging of the Population –Mortality rates falling –Birth rates falling –Work rates falling –The sky is not falling

3 Population Ages 60+, Total (Millions) China

4 Percent of Population Age 60+

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7 Support Ratios in Asia People 25–64/People 65+

8 What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future? What is the problem with an aging population - Provide income and health security during old age at affordable budgets

9 What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future? What is the problem with an aging population same problems in Asia - disadvantage- aging more rapidly, at lower incomes, and with weak non-familial income and health security systems in place - advantage- much easier to change systems than in Europe and America

10 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection The USA Health and Retirement Survey - HRS

11 Overview of HRS Nationally representative longitudinal survey of ~20,000 people age 51+ designed to produce public use data Funded mostly by NIA (and SSA) Began in 1992 with the birth cohorts of Two year periodicity Links to administrative records—health and pension

12 Core Content Areas in HRS Health Physical/psychological self-report, conditions, disabilities; Cognitive testing Behaviors (smoking, drinking, exercise) Health Services Utilization, expenditure, insurance, out-of-pocket spending Labor Force Employment status/history, earnings, disability, retirement, type of work Economic Status Income, wealth, and consumption Linkage to pensions, Social Security earnings/benefit histories Family Structure Extended family, proximity, transfers to/from of money, time, housing.

13 Scientific Productivity of HRS: HRS Publications, : Cumulative Count by Type Cumulative Count: June 15, 2005 Journal Publications 510 Books and Book Chapters 83 Dissertations 59 Working Papers 326 Total 978

14 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection HRS ELSA (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing) –Two waves completed (2002, 2004) –Third wave now in field –Similar to HRS SES and Health content and breath –Big innovation is biomarkers

/ /52000 HSE (CVD) 5,053 Nurse visit HSE (CVD) 5,053 Nurse visit HSE (ethnic) 2,227 HSE (ethnic) 2,227 HSE (respiratory) 4,549 Nurse visit HSE (respiratory) 4,549 Nurse visit ELSA W1 12,100 Individuals aged 50 or over ELSA W1 12,100 Individuals aged 50 or over ELSA W2 c.10,800 + Nurse Visit ELSA W2 c.10,800 + Nurse Visit ELSA Design Basics

16 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection HRS, ELSA SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) –14 countries in Europe- more on the horizon –completed first wave 2004, approved for EU funding of second wave now in the field –Similar instruments to HRS and ELSA –Big innovation is very strict comparability of survey instruments across countries

17 The International Landscape in Comparable HRS Data Collection- on to Asia HRS, ELSA, SHARE South Korea- finished first wave and data are now available- KLoSA- Japan- internally funded and now in the field- JHRS Thailand- partially funded but early stages of preparation- HART China- large pilot next year- CHARLS India- Discussions in India led by team from Harvard- ???

18 The International Landscape in Comparable HRS Data Collection- on to Asia In every single Asian country multiple preliminary visits were made by key members of the HRS-ELSA- SHARE team –To provide all types of assistance on survey content, design, and implementation –To provide continuing support and collaboration –Some level of NIA funding has been critical

19 Comparable Data Collection- individual sample sizes at baseline HRS - 12,654 -ages 50+ ELSA- 12,100 -ages 50+ SHARE – 22,777 in 11 countries - ages 50+ KLoSA – about 11,000 -ages 45+ Japan- about 10,000 individuals -ages China- about 10,000 individuals – ages 45+

20 Comparable Data Collection- periodicity of surveys All Countries have selected two year periodicity

21 Comparable Data Collection- Content Aim is to have significant comparable content so that cross-national studies can be conducted But also allow for scientific innovation at the country level Content also has to reflect reality and policies of each country Just finished initial meeting in Chiang Mai Thailand in February to discuss issues of comparability across countries – most PIs were able to attend

22 Comparable Data Collection- Health- biomarkers Only ELSA (venous blood) and now HRS (dry blood) are doing biomarkers now but many countries are planning to do so in future waves Performance tests are done by many of the surveys- grip strength, walking speed, etc

23 Comparable Data Collection- links to pensions and health records All Countries have agreed in principle to do these links - allows one to study the impact of variation in the type of pension and health care system on - income security during old age - health outcomes and costs

24 Comparable Data Collection- DATA Distribution All participating countries have committed to widespread and quick release of data into the public domain both within their country and to the international community –This is a big departure in some countries and HRS model helped a great deal

25 The International Landscape in Comparable HRS Data Collection- HRS, ELSA, SHARE New Asian surveys -South Korea (KLoSA); Japan- (JHRS): Thailand (HART): China (CHARLS); India (???): and most likely more to come Latin America- two round of Mexican (MHAS) survey already exist Argentina and Chile have expressed interest in doing HRS style studies

26 HRS Studies’ Global Coverage Health and Retirement Study (HRS) English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)Planned Asian HRS studies Mexican HRS (MHAS) ? ?

27 Conclusions The American HRS has quickly lead to similar types of surveys in almost thirty countries to study aging issues around the world –Small seed investments by NIA have had a very big impact –Gives the opportunity to study effects of health and pension systems different than your own –Produced an international set of scholars in demography, economics, and health who are collaborating on this research