15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 1 HYDRAULICS MODELLING SOFTWARE COMMENTS ON HISTORY, RESEARCH, MARKET, DEVELOPMENT & AVAILABILITY Hydraulics modelling software.

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Presentation transcript:

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 1 HYDRAULICS MODELLING SOFTWARE COMMENTS ON HISTORY, RESEARCH, MARKET, DEVELOPMENT & AVAILABILITY Hydraulics modelling software

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 2 Hydraulics modelling software RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT: EVOLUTION BY INTERACTION BETWEEN CONCEPTUALISATION, FORMULATION, NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS AND TOOLS (hardware & software )

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 3 Hydraulics modelling software conceptualisation computational hydraulics applications Informatic tools DEVELOPPEMENT MECHANISM

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 4 Hydraulics modelling software MARKET AND APPLICATIONS INTERACTION BETWEEN: - DEMAND - STATE OF KNOWLEDGE - AVAILABILITY OF THE TOOLS

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 5 Hydraulics modelling software TWO KINDS OF DEMAND, TWO KINDS OF EVOLUTION : - TECHNICAL, INTEGRATING NEW KNOWLEDGE - COMMERCIAL/ EVERYDAY ENGINEERING EVOLUTION OF THE TECHNICAL DEMAND - EXAMPLE OF RESERVOIR STUDIES

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 6 Hydraulics modelling software Reservoir hydraulics problem until 1960 h = h (Q,x), v = Q/A Bresse: or Schoklitsch, Rühlmann, Tolkmitt:

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 7 Hydraulics modelling software EVOLUTION OF THE TECHNICAL DEMAND : STRONG DEMAND : 1960-steady state flow 1D backwater D wave propagation following turbines and gates manoeuvres 1980-unsteady 2D vertical, variable density (heat, sediments, salinity) WEAK DEMAND : Until unsteady 3D, variable density, water quality, ecosystems

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 8 Hydraulics modelling software 30 YEARS OF STRONG TECHNICAL DEMAND DUE TO NEEDS OF ENGINEERING WORKS BUT « soft » TECHNICAL DEMAND: SOCIAL COST AND WATER QUALITY DID NOT FIND THEIR EXPRESSION IN BUDGET TERMS IN DECISION MAKING AND MANAGEMENT

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 9 Hydraulics modelling software : explosive COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR HYDRAULICS SIMULATION TOOLS DUE TO  NEEDS OF ENGINEERING WORKS  GLOBAL USE & SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS, EXISTENCE OF INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE  PROACTIVE MARKETING OF EXISTNG INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE VERY LIMITED COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR SOCIAL COST AND WATER QUALITY TOOLS

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 10 Hydraulics modelling software EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF PCs - EXPLOSIVE MARKETING AND USE OF INDUSTRIAL MODELLING SOFTWARE CONCEPT OF « ENCAPSULATED TECHNOLOGY » - 4th GENERATION OF MODELS CONCEPT OF BRILLIANT FUTURE OF IA AND 5th GENERATION => FLOP! CONCEPT OF HYDROINFORMATICS

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 11 Hydraulics modelling software GENERALISATION OF THE USE OF SIMULATION TOOLS IN ENGINEERING ACTIVITIES -STABILISATION OF THE MARKET OF THE TOOLS WITH LIMITED NUMBERS OF MAIN ACTORS -RESEARCH DEVELOPMENTS CONCERNING ALGORITHMS WITHOUT BEING APPLIED IN MARKETED SYSTEMS -DEVELOPMENTS FOR WATER QUALITY AND ECOHYDRAULICS BUT LIMITED APPLICATIONS - HYDROINFORMATICS – MANAGEMENT OF INFORMATION IN WATER SECTOR (MODELLING, NETWORKS, RESERVOIRS, FLOODS).

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 12 Hydraulics modelling software conceptualisation informatics tools 1995HYDROINFORMATICS 1996M.B. Abbott th GENERATIONGIS, UNIX 1986 DHI 19873rd GENERATION MAINFRAMES - IBM 340 IAHR Committee nd GENERATION FORTRAN SOGREAH, A. PreissmannIBM J.J. Stoker 1st application 1927 CFL – numerical theory 1895 Massau & characteristics 1871 B. de St.-Venant equations

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 13 UNSA – Hydro-Europe - Software, models and simulation conceptualisation informatics tools Modelling software and Future ????? expertise as the service ????? D & 2D models & market availbale software with hundred thousands points of the grid. - Integration of facilitators (GIS, ARC) and fluid and pollution modelling. Parallel computation - - Some understanding of the Cluster networks uncertainty of numerical modelling New lap-top capacities results (SIMHYDRO) INTERNET !!! Massive marketing of “encapsulated” modelling software Massive use of modelling with market available codes: MIKE,TELEMAC & MASCARET, DELFT 3D, ISIS, HEC, etc.

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 14 Hydraulics modelling software SINCE 1995? è Conceptualisation – NOTHING REALLY NEW è Algorithms - INDIVIDUAL RESULTS (Guinot, Kutija,…) NOT INTEGRATED IN COMMERCIAL CODES è Massive applications : engineering studies encapsulation (management & forecasting systems) ▬►ICT developments independent of modelling needs STAGNATION ?

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 15 Hydraulics modelling software NUMERICAL METHODS USED :  Finite Differences Method (FDM)  Finite Elements Method(FEM)  Finite Volumes Method PROGRESS IN NUMERICS:  Detailed treatment of discontinuities (jumps, shocks)  Better understanding of boundary conditions for 2D BUT NOT INTEGRATED IN COMMERCIAL CODES!!! WHY?

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 16 Hydraulics modelling software LACK OF DEMAND LACK OF INSTITUTIONAL FINANCING WEAK PROFIT MARGINS OF ENGINEERING REFUSAL OF INVESTMENT RISKS

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 17 Hydraulics modelling software TALKING ABOUT ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS NEW SINCE 2000: - 2D AND 3D MODELS USING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS COMPUTATIONAL POINTS! -NOVELTIES THANKS TO THE COMPUTER AND ICT EVOLUTION BUT NO PROGRESS IN MATHEMATICAL OR PHYSICAL UNDERSTANDING -LINKS WITH DATA PROCESSING (GIS, DTM, etc.) AND GRAPHICAL TREATMENT OF RESULTS

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 18 MODELLING CODES – CURRENT SITUATION INDUSTRIAL DIVISION OF WORK - DEVELOPERS/USERS AVAILABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL CODES ON THE MARKET TWO ILLUSIONS : « EVERYTHING can be found free on the WEB » « We can develop this ourselves from “open software” » !!! Hydraulics modelling software

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 19 Hydraulics modelling software RESULTS OF HISTORICAL EVOLUTION In Europe: - Emergence of suppliers of industrial-quality codes - Impossibility within market framework to catch up with the latter (prohibitive costs) - Two types of users * those who have real expertise * «slaves» of 2 or 3 codes, limited to standard applications

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 20 Hydraulics modelling software traditional consultants High Tech: laboratories developers and modellers  Golden age: high margins, Strong demand Engineering companies Users of industrial codes Industrial age : weak margins, Ferocious competition, new kind of demand Developers and suppliers of encapsulated products Survive with obsolete, no investment, hidden maintenance costs 

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 21 Hydraulics modelling software SOME APPLIED MARKET AVAILABLE CODES: RIVERS AND INUNDABLE PLAINS ONE DIMENSIONAL PROBLEMS (1-D)

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 22 Hydraulics modelling software l MIKE 11 Owner:DHI (Denmark) Developer:DHI (Denmark) l ISIS Owner:HALCROW (UK) & Developer: Wallingford Research (UK) l MASCARET Owner:EDF (France) Developer: EDF (Fraance) l SOBEK Owner : Delft Hydraulics (NL) Déveloper:Delft Hydraulics (NL)

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 23 Hydraulics modelling software Free of charge available code: HEC RAS Developer & Owner:US Army Corps of Engineers

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 24 Hydraulics modelling software SOME OF MARKET AVAILABLE CODES: RIVERS AND INUNDABLE PLAINS, COASTAL AREAS TWO DIMENSIONAL PROBLEMS (2-D)

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 25 Hydraulics modelling software l MIKE 21 Owner:DHI (Denmark) Developer:DHI (Denmark) l TELEMAC 2-D Owner:EDF (France) Developer:EDF (France) Commercialisation: ARTELIA Group (FR), HR Wallingford

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 26 Hydraulics modelling software l Delft 3D/2D Owner:Delft Hydraulics (NL) Developer:Delft Hydraulics (NL)

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 27  “ CLOUD COMPUTING”  Software as a Service (SaaS) 40% of USA companies in 2009 !!!  Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)  Platform as a Service (Paas) And... In egngineering & modelling: Software & Expertise as a Service Near Future possibilities Hydraulics modelling software

15/09/2015Dr. J. A. Cunge 28  INTEGRATION OF DENSE TELESENSOR NETWORKS WITHIN MODELLING PRACTICE & REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT, DRONES  MASSIVE APPLICATION OF GPUs (graphical processing units) instead CPUs  FORM- RECOGNITION TECHNOLOGY (using GPUs) TO SCENARIO CHOICE FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT Hydraulics modelling software