Pacific Panel Major activities over the past year Panel meeting in Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010 International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and Climate Change in South America, Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010 SPCZ workshop, Aug 2010, Samoa Islands. International workshop on North Pacific West Boundary Current dynamics, May 2010, Qingdao Workshop “New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes in climate models”, Paris, France, November 2010 EGU ENSO sessions Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and PCCSP, plus “MIXET”Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and PCCSP, plus “MIXET

Pacific panel Major future plans/activities Indonesian Throughflow Task Team (jointly with IOP) Strengthen links and develop activities with PICES and other “green” programmes Development of several review papers (the South Pacific Convergence Zone, Intra-seasonal Oscillation, and WBCs’ response to global warming. Support for South America East Boundary Current research Continue coordination of major programs

Workshops/meetings planned ITF Task Team meeting, early 2012, Indonesia 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April – 01 May 2012 – Noumea, New Caledonia. NPOCE open science meeting, early 2012.

Pacific Panel Recent scientific highlights J Climate paper “Wind effect on past and future sea level trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific”Wind effect on past and future sea level trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific SPCZ and climate change J Climate paper “Impact of Decadal Pacific Oscillation on regional drought and flood” led to a Wall Street Journal opinion pieceImpact of Decadal Pacific Oscillation on regional drought and flood Climate dynamic paper “Impact of mean state climate change on ENSO flavours”Impact of mean state climate change on ENSO flavours Paper on ENSO instablitity analysis published.ENSO instablitity analysis Continuing work on “El Niño and Climate Change” after Nature Geoscience paper.El Niño and Climate Change NPOCE conducted its major (52-day long) investigation survey to the Northwestern Pacific.NPOCE conducted its major (52-day long) investigation survey to the Northwestern Pacific

Detection: Ensemble Mean Std. Dev. 30-year NINO3 Natural variability 5-95%tiles obs 5-95%tiles of ensemble mean Collins et al. 2011

Risk of Large El Nino Event

Position and flux associated with ENSO Vincent et al. 2010

Tropical Cyclone Genesis

As in Vincent et al 2010 but extending to 2008 EOF1 EOF2 EOF 1, 48% EOF 2, 16% Applied to 24 CMIP3 models since 1950 PIC runs, only 11 models are able to produce

Aggregated over 11 models Control experiments Climate Change experiments

SST and Wind Projection in CMIP3 SST response to CO 2 is Characterized by enhanced Equatorial warming  Convergence of trades towards equator  Ekman suction in South-Western Pacific Timmermann et al. 2011

Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise ( ) IPCC (2007) Rahmstorf (2007 ) 10% means delay by 1 decade per century 10% means delay by 1 decade per century Wind-induced deceleration of global mean sea level rise Wind-induced acceleration of global mean sea level rise

Cai et al. 2010

(20-yr sliding frequency of CP El Nino (red sold line) and EP El Nino(black dashed line). 20-yr sliding frequency is defined by counting each El Nino event during the 20-yr period) Changes in the number of EP and CP El Nino events Choi et al. (2010) CP El Nino EP El Nino

TAO/TRITON ITF MONITORING OKMC GAIA NPOCE Pacific climate change science Programme PCCSP Pacific Panel Issues and challenges (for input to JSC)

NPOCE launched in May, 2010

Design and progress of NPOCE field experiment Design and progress of NPOCE field experiment Deployed moorings and buoy by IOCAS, OUC and KORDI

2 Chinese moorings deployed, 8 Argo floats and 30 ARGOs drifters released in Dec Chinese moorings to be recovered and replaced in Jun NPOCE timeline (Hu et al., 2010, NPOCE Science/Implementation Plan) POSEIDON Project Workshop, Oct. 2010, Jeju, Korea NPOCE Coordinating Meeting, Mar. 28, 2011, Busan, Korea 2 Japanese moorings to be deployed in Aug Korean buoy deployed in May 2010 NPOCE activities ( )

The first NPOCE cruise of China (November, 2010-January, 2011) Mooring(2) Argo(8)/Argos(30) 75kHz ADCPs + EvoLogics Acoustic Modem, 400 m DVS 700 m 1200 m 5450 m IXSEA 1500 m ORE 5500 m

End

Ongoing experiments, Coral Sea Gliders (2005/06 and 2007/10) Gourdeau et al., 2008 Kessler, Davis, Gourdeau GBROOS: XBT and Argo floats ( ) Maes et al., submittedCruisesSECALIS/SECARGO ( ); Gasparin et al. 2011; Ganachaud et al., 2008 Cruise FLUSEC (2007) Maes et al., 2011 regional 1/12° Coral Sea ROMS Couvelard et al. (2008) regional 1/12° Solomon Sea ORCA Melet et al. (2010a, c) Observations Models: 2012 IMOS GBROOS IMOS GBROOS

Wu et al. 2011