Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008
2 Forward-Looking Statements The statements made by representatives of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (“NRP”) during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although NRP believes that the assumptions underlying these statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and necessarily involve risks that may affect NRP’s business prospects and performance, causing actual results to differ from those discussed during the presentation. Such risks and uncertainties include, by way of example and not of limitation: general business and economic conditions; decreases in demand for coal; changes in our lessees’ operating conditions and costs; changes in the level of costs related to environmental protection and operational safety; unanticipated geologic problems; problems related to force majeure; potential labor relations problems; changes in the legislative or regulatory environment; and lessee production cuts. These and other applicable risks and uncertainties have been described more fully in NRP’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K. NRP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.
3 The Global Coal Markets And Their Impact On NRP
Current Coal Market Exciting time in the coal industry Demand increasing Coal prices continue to improve month over month U.S. coal pricing with global coal World economic indicators point toward higher global coal demand and a supply shortfall Bodes well for U.S. coal industry and NRP 4
5 Global Coal Consumption – Growth 2001 to 2006 Global Coal Consumption has increased 30% between 2001 and 2006 China ~ 75% India ~ 38% Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007 MM tonnes
6 Coal is on the Move
7 Global Demand and the Domestic Coal Markets China doubled its annual coal production between 2000 and 2006 –Still cannot keep up with demand within China –Has gone from exporter to importer of coal China, India, East Asia and Europe importing coal –High freight rates give U.S. coal into Europe an advantage –Weakness in the U.S. dollar Problems in global coal deliveries creates extremely tight coal market –Australian floods and infrastructure issues –Power shortages in South Africa causing mines to shut down periodically Currently - no excess production in U.S. market Increasing exports boosting U.S. domestic coal prices Swing coals that were being sold into steam market are now going into met market causing shortages in the steam market
Exports Increasing U.S. exports increasing – up 19% in 2007 over 2006 and rising –metallurgical coal at average price of ~ $89 per ton in 2007 –steam coal at average price of ~$48 per ton in 2007 Exports forecasted to increase by approximately 48% in 2008 over 2007 –Steam exports forecasted to increase by approximately 73% –Met exports forecasted to increase by approximately 28% Exports 2007 –Canada and Mexico ~ 35% –Overseas ~65% 8 Source: EIA and COALCAST
Spot Coal Price Comparisons May 16, month ago M/M1 Year ago Y/Y CAPP Big Sandy Rail 12,500/1.2 $98.50$ %$ % CAPP Barge NYMEX - spec % % NAPP Pittsburgh Seam 2.5 lbs % % Illinois Basin Barge 11, % % PRB % % 9 Source: Argus Coal
10 Recent Announcements – Coal Contracts BHP signs contracts with Japan for $315 per metric tonne for metallurgical coal setting the tone for new contract negotiations around the globe U.S. coal companies 1Q08 conference calls and earnings releases –Alpha, the largest exporter of U.S. metallurgical coal and NRP’s largest met producer After end of 1Q08, secured 2008 contract for 750,000 tons of met coal at $240-$250 per ton at the mine 57% of 2009 planned production is still uncommitted Have sold remainder of 2008 thermal coal (340,000 tons) at $87 per ton –Patriot Coal 5.5 to 6.5 million tons of met coal and 3.5 to 4.5 million tons of thermal coal still uncommitted for 2009 –Arch Coal In Central App., recent metallurgical coal sales approached the Asian market benchmark prices, on a quality adjusted basis. Arch also committed substantial steam coal volumes for 08 and 09 at pricing averaging more than a 40% premium over 1Q08 Source: Company reports and industry trade publications
11 NRP Stands to Benefit
12 NRP Investment Considerations A Proxy for the Coal Industry Landholding company –Lease reserves to coal mining companies –Receive royalty on production based on a % of the gross selling price 2.1 billion tons of coal reserves (22% metallurgical and 78% steam) 66 lessees produce approximately 5% of U.S. production from NRP’s 191 leases Three major coal producing regions in eleven states 2008 estimated production: 57 million tons to 67 million tons Coal royalty accounts for approximately 75% of NRP’s revenue stream Continue to Diversify Income Stream Coal Infrastructure and Transportation Aggregate Royalties Oil and Gas Royalties, Timber, Wheelage and other
NRP - 25% of U.S. Metallurgical Coal Production 2007 U.S. Met Production ~ 52 million tons –Exports 32.2 million tons at an average price of ~$89/ton 2007 NRP Met Production ~ 13 million tons NRP Met Production 1Q08 –28% of NRP’s total production and 37% of NRP’s coal royalty revenue –4.1 million tons –15 Lessees of which 8 are public companies 22% of NRP’s 2.1 billion tons of reserves are metallurgical NRP is highly leveraged to movements in metallurgical coal prices 13 Source: EIA and NRP
14 Historical Performance We believe that NRP’s 2008 financial performance will be better than originally forecasted and shown on this slide Currently do not have sufficient information from our lessees to quantify increase in guidance New guidance to be issued August 11 with 2Q08 earnings Increasing revenue stream provides for growing distributions Total Revenues Distributable Cash Flow 31% CAGR 27% CAGR ? ?
15 Increased distributions last 19 quarters, 93% overall Distributions 93% Distribution Increase Increased Quarterly Distributions
16 Where are we going next?
Short Term Outlook for Coal Markets World dynamics that would need to change to see lower coal prices –China and India economies would need to slow significantly –Infrastructure problems in both Australia and South Africa need to be resolved –Stronger dollar –Lower freight rates –Lower fuel, steel and labor costs Met prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010 are well positioned to remain strong Global demand and U.S. exports will continue to place upward pressure on domestic coal prices 17
18 Long Term Outlook for the Coal Markets Strong demand next few years EIA expects total U.S. electricity sales to increase 50% by 2030 EIA expects U. S. coal fueled electricity to gain additional market share over the next 25 years growing to approximately 54% by 2030 from 49% today Developing nations around the globe are looking to coal to supply their energy needs creating increasing demand Source: EIA – Energy Information Agency and NRP