CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS Post-2012 Negotiations 29 OCTOBER 2007

2 BOGOR : Some progress? Summitry showing results Elements of Bali roadmap clear Linkage of Kyoto Protocol and Convention “tracks” inevitable Idea of a long-term global goal More openness over developing country “contributions”

3 BALI ROAD MAP for post 2012 agreement Four core issues: mitigation, adaptation, technology, finance Plus others: deforestation, impact of response measures, SD PAMs (sustainable development policies and measures), carbon markets Recognition of non UNFCCC processes?

4 Questions Elements of the road map? 2009 end date? A single negotiation or two tracks – Kyoto and Convention? If two, what linkages/conditionalities? Input from non UNFCCC processes? (G8, MEM, APEC etc)

Ad-hoc Working Group (AWG)

6 AWG: work programme (a) Analysis of mitigation potentials and ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex 1 Parties (b) Analysis of possible means to achieve mitigation objectives

7 AWG: work programme (c) Scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex 1 Parties in aggregate and allocation of the corresponding mitigation effort, and agreement on their further commitments

8 AWG: Indicative range for Annex 1 in aggregate 25 – 40% below 1990 (by 2020) may be discussed at Bali Iteration between (a), (b) and (c) of work programme

9 AWG: The Science (1) IPCC AR4 To avoid some of the most extreme impacts of climate change, increase in global mean temperature needs to be limited to no more than 2 – 3 deg C This requires stabilisation below about 560 ppm CO 2 e

10 AWG: The Science (2) 80% chance of staying below 3 deg C if GHG concentrations are stabilised at less than 445ppm CO 2 e But with stabilisation at 560 ppm CO 2 e, there is a 50% chance of exceeding 3 deg C

11 AWG: The Science (3) To achieve stabilisation at ppm CO 2 e would require that by 2020: Emissions from Annex 1 as a whole were 25 – 40% below 1990 levels, and There was substantial deviation from baseline for emissions in LA, ME, EA and Centrally-planned Asia.

12 AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (1) What does the science suggest that the range should be?

13 AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (2) Not necessary that all Annex 1 Parties’ commitments are within the indicative range Comparable effort and equitable burden sharing Easier/harder for New Zealand than other Annex 1 countries?

14 AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (3) Implications of extent of participation and extent of coverage eg. avoided deforestation, bunker fuels, …. Possible range for international Carbon price

15 AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (4) Cost to New Zealand Implications of possible changes to LULUCF rules Level of sequestration in Kyoto forests around 2020, 2030 Length of commitment period

16 AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (5) Direct cost to New Zealand businesses/households, upper bound: commitment x international Carbon price Impact on national economic welfare (NZ commitment, international Carbon price, trade effects, …..)

17 AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (1) Generic Very high probability that the final package will achieve stabilisation at the target concentration ie. sufficient coverage of emissions – activities and countries – with sufficient commitment to sufficient reductions

18 AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (2) Or specific Inclusion of as many activities as possible Participation of all Annex 1 Parties Flexibility mechanisms are available Annex 1 mitigation via flex. mechs. is additional to “substantial deviation ….”

19 AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (3) Effects of changes to LULUCF rules taken into account Indirect trade effects taken into account Fair burden sharing

20 Other Issues: Russian Proposal streamlining inclusion into Annex I Convention voluntary commitments New Zealand position supports new agenda item/s for these issues joining Annex I should be simple; tacit acceptance Voluntary commitments one of elements in post-2012 considerations

21 Other issues: Kyoto Protocol 2 nd Review 2 nd Review at CMP4; Bali = scope and content 1 st Review inadequate; link to AWG and post-2012 New Zealand position Basis = best science & other information Process: prepare during 2008; distinct, clear, time- defined; links to other processes Scope: LULUCF rules, streamlining A1 inclusion, CDM, nature of commitments (type, length)

22 Other Issues: Avoided Deforestation (1) SBSTA 27 agenda item 5: Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: approaches to stimulate action Emissions from deforestation are roughly 20% of global emissions. Widely recognised as a major area to be addressed in any future global climate change action

23 Avoided Deforestation (2) Process to date –In March 2007, Australia and New Zealand co-hosted/funded the second workshop on this issue in Cairns, Australia. –At SBSTA 26 a conclusion could not reached. The draft decision will continue to be negotiated at SBSTA 27 (Bali). –SBSTA 26 invited Parties to make submissions. Key issues of debate –Scope –Fund –Market based Other issues –Baselines (local, regional, national), additionality, permanence, leakage, monitoring.

24 Avoided Deforestation (3) NZ’s position –Action is needed –Mechanism requires sufficient money to address issue –As such fund idea has weaknesses –Technical issues can be addressed –How does this ‘fit into’ the wider processes? –What implications for emissions reductions targets? Possible outcomes from Bali

25 Agriculture: International leadership NZ Government investing $1M p.a. on international collaboration on agriculture and forestry climate change research Major first step is establishment of Livestock Emissions and Abatement Research Network (LEARN)

26 Agriculture: LEARN NZ establishing website for LEARN Proposed that NZ act as administrator of LEARN Exploring possible research secondment programme Will look to co-host and sponsor future activities under LEARN – workshops, conferences, exchanges

27 Agriculture: Next steps GGAA3 – conference to be held in NZ in November this year NZ sponsoring attendance of developing countries at GGAA3 and inaugural LEARN meeting –At least 20 countries will attend LEARN meeting including: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, UK, Switzerland, Ukraine, France, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand

28 Agriculture: Bali Presentation on Non-CO2 ghgs in Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) Advertise LEARN and associated activities Continue to engage with Parties on agriculture