Organizing the Election Process Facilitating Voter Choice Recruiting & Aiding Candidates Organizing a Complex Government Educating Citizens Promoting Civic Participation
TimeframeDominantOpposing FederalistsDem-Reps DemocratsWhigs RepublicansDemocrats RepublicansDemocrats DemocratsRepublicans 1969-now---Democrats/Republicans---
Why two parties? Why no dominance?
Duverger’s Law ◦ Plurality voting systems Fusion Elimination
Alternative? ◦ Proportional Representation
PR allows small parties to win seats
Can still influence elections
Ralph Nader (2000, Green Party) Results ◦ Bush47.9% (271 electoral votes) ◦ Gore48.4% (266 electoral votes) ◦ Nader2.7% (0 electoral votes) Was Nader a spoiler?
97,000 votes in Florida ◦ Nader: "In the year 2000, exit polls reported that 25% of my voters would have voted for Bush, 38% would have voted for Gore and the rest would not have voted at all.“ This is about 13,000 votes Gore would have gained
97,000 votes in Florida ◦ Nader: "In the year 2000, exit polls reported that 25% of my voters would have voted for Bush, 38% would have voted for Gore and the rest would not have voted at all.“ This is about 13,000 votes Gore would have gained ◦ Nader: blame the Supreme Court, Gore losing his home state, and the quarter-million democrats that voted for Bush
97,000 votes in Florida ◦ Nader: "In the year 2000, exit polls reported that 25% of my voters would have voted for Bush, 38% would have voted for Gore and the rest would not have voted at all.“ This is about 13,000 votes Gore would have gained ◦ Nader: blame the Supreme Court, Gore losing his home state, and the quarter-million democrats that voted for Bush ◦ Also…don’t forget uncounted military ballots!
No recount in Gore victories in ◦ New Mexico (Gore won by.06%) ◦ Wisconsin (.22%) ◦ Iowa (.31%) ◦ Oregon (.44%) Numerous irregularities reported in Wisconsin State law guarantees right to recount if <.5%
Ross Perot (1992, independent) Results ◦ Clinton43% (370 electoral votes) ◦ Bush38% (168 electoral votes) ◦ Perot19% (0 electoral votes)
1992 Outcome
Perot voters…(without Perot running) ◦ 38% would have voted for Clinton ◦ 38% would have voted for Bush ◦ 24% wouldn’t have voted
Perot voters…(without Perot running) ◦ 38% would have voted for Clinton ◦ 38% would have voted for Bush ◦ 24% wouldn’t have voted ◦ Or spoiled… 36% “would have voted for Perot” if they thought he had a chance
End of the “New Deal Coalition” Secret Ballot Primaries Merit System
Ross Perot (1996, Reform Party) Results ◦ Clinton 49% (379 electoral votes) ◦ Dole41% (159 electoral votes) ◦ Perot8% (0 electoral votes)
Run-off elections
Preference Voting
Run-off elections Preference Voting ◦ Ireland (1990 presidential election) First PreferenceFinal Robinson 39% Lenihan 44% Currie 17%
Run-off elections Preference Voting ◦ Ireland (1990 presidential election) First PreferenceFinal Robinson 39%52% Lenihan 44%46% Currie 17%
Will these “more accurate” systems ever be adopted in the U.S.?