Debt and the 2007 Budget Freedom from Debt Coalition January 2007

DEBT Becomes Her An Overview of the Debt Situation Under GMA

The country again is in grave danger from spiraling into a debt tragedy. For one, the government under the administration of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is increasingly relying on debt to keep its finances afloat. Second, this administration is changing some fiscal procedural, management, and reporting rules that allow it to juggle funds and statistics simply to make its “numbers” look good.

Third, under GMA we are again witnessing unscrupulous borrowing practices and provision of government guarantees that can be expected to further add to our debt burden. And lastly, under the GMA administration the little gains achieved in attempts of the national government to recover and hold accountable those responsible for behest and onerous loans under the Marcos dictatorship are now being compromised.

Heavy Borrowings As of September 2005, total Philippine debt has ballooned to a staggering Php 6.5 trillion or UsD billion. From Php 4.5 trillion or UsD billion in 2000 and Php 1.8 trillion or UsD 74.7 billion in The county now stands as the 10th most indebted country in the world.

The current Philippine government under Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) has opted to take an aggressive borrowings and repayment policy. The total borrowings of the Arroyo administration amount to more than the combined debts of the country’s past three presidents. In power for only 5 years and 7 months, GMA has already borrowed a total of Php 2.77 trillion. On the other hand, the combined debt of Cory, Ramos and Erap only totals PhP 1.51 trillion.

Heavy Debt Payments The most evident impact of the Philippines’ continued reliance on debt and its government’s lack of prudence in accessing and assuming debt is the ever-increasing burden of repayment. In 2005 alone, the Philippine NG paid PhP billion in interest and principal debt payments. This amount represents 85 percent of the country’s total revenue collection and 52.7 percent of the total government budget for the same year.

49% 63% 76% 86% 85% Revenues after Debt Payments year amount ( in million pesos) Debt Servicing Available Funds

PER MINUTE Debt Service:PhP 1.37 million PER DAY Debt Service:PhP 1.98 billion Per capita Debt Payment:PhP 8,400 Per capita SOCIAL Spending:PhP 3,400 Per capita ECONOMIC SPENDING:PhP 2,300

On the Fiscal Deficit: Beyond Image Despite the ballooning debt, increasing interest and principal debt payments the GMA administration continue to project an image of a stronger fiscal position. The manipulation of procedures, funds and statistics simply to project this image was discussed in a paper written by Maitet Diokno-Pascual, former FDC president, last July 2006.

Relying on Borrowings Using data from the COA audit reports for the years , the combined debt-related cash outflows of PhP 4.5 trillion are 2.6 times the total tax revenues earned by the Arroyo government in the same period. In order to keep afloat, Diokno-Pascual pointed at how the Arroyo government is borrowing heavily from itself. Based on the same COA reports, from 2002 to 2004 the Bureau of the Treasury “invested” PhP billion in Treasury bills issued by itself.

The amount came from the Bond Sinking Fund which is money set aside for payment of maturing government securities. In effect, the Treasury earns from lending to itself. Nearly a third or 31.4 percent of the non-tax revenues earned by the Arroyo government from 2001 to 2005 consisted of interest earned from money the Treasury lent to itself. What this means is that the Arroyo government augments its revenue by borrowing from itself.

Cutting Spending At the same time, improvements in the deficit numbers were also achieved by massive cuts in government expenditures particularly for social and infrastructure spending. From , the Arroyo government’s total expenditures exceeded total revenues by PhP892 billion. A deficit is not entirely a bad thing, especially if it is incurred in order to support employment-friendly growth. But in the case of the Arroyo government, only nine centavos of every peso it spent from 2001 to 2005 was used for capital outlay.

In short, deficit spending was not channeled towards increasing and upgrading our productive capacity. Capital outlay fell from 2.1 percent of nominal GDP in 2001, to 1.3 percent of nominal GDP in In 2005, the Arroyo government cut non-interest, non-IRA spending—social and infrastructure spending—by PhP 50 billion or a significant 10% of the year’s program. In the first half of 2006, it cut even more posting cuts in social and infrastructure spending of 19 percent PhP 60 billion.

Since 2001, spending on social services and infrastructure has consistently fallen from 11.1 percent of nominal GDP to 8.6 percent in In contrast, total debt service payments (interest and principal) have risen from 4.8 percent of nominal GDP to 5.5 percent over the same period.

Growing Contingent Liabilities The growing indebtedness of the Philippines is also alarmingly bolstered by the advent of contingent liabilities. As of end-December 2005, the NG contingent debt amounted to PhP billion pesos or percent of the total NG debt, while the broader public sector’s contingent debt stood at PhP billion.

Under the GMA regime except for 2005, contingent liabilities have been growing annually by some 16 percent (2001 to 2004). Bulk of which is accounted for by direct guarantees provided by the national government to foreign debts.

Jan- May 2006 Total 495,777591,738708,539833,708586,350591,912 Domestic Debt 23,16721,06522,63533,13548,18348,134 NG Direct Guarantee 22,98420,88122,45132,95148,01247,983 Assumed GFI Guarantee Foreign Debt 472,610570,673685,904800,573538,167543,778 NG Direct Guarantee 456,09354,852670,778787,821529,542536,357 Assumed GFI Guarantee 16,51715,821 12,7528,6257,421

GMA’s Compromise Deals Under GMA, several institutions of government have been entering into compromise deals particularly in onerous and behest loan Marcos debt cases. Instead of pursuing the Marcos debt cases in order to bring to court those who were directly responsible for these loans and to recover what in effect they stole from the Philippine government. Following the pronouncements of PCGG Commissioners, as a policy, the GMA administration will pursue compromises on these cases. Example: PNCC-Radstock Compromise Deal

Overview of the 2007 Budget

Total proposed budget for 2007 amounts to PhP 1.13 trillion. New appropriations only reach PhP billion compared to PhP billion in Automatic appropriations for internal revenue allotments of LGUs and for personnel retirement/gratuity funds will reach PhP billion. Interest payments on the debt only at PhP billion. This amount is slightly lower than last year’s level. The appropriations bill, however, did not reflect principal payments on the debt.

Budget Items2005 (actual) 2006 (adjusted)2007 (proposed) New General Appropriations 717,373,260734,084,485641,120,897 Automatic Appropriations: Interests 299,807,000339,998,000328,733,000 Automatic Appropriations: Others 75,428,41036,299,961223,493,582 Continuing Appropriations 37,410,055102,499,298- sub total 1,130,018,7251,212,881,7441,193,347,479 Less: unobligated allotments 182,464,997159,604,74467,008,479 Total obligations (1) 947,553,7281,053,277,0001,126,339,000

Increase for IRAs While the total budget posted a slight 2.4 percent real growth, it is only the automatic appropriations of internal revenue allotments (IRAs) to LGUs that reflected an increase. This single budget item increased more than five fold. For 2007, government will be automatically appropriating a total of PhP billion in IRA. In the previous two years, the NG classified this budget line item under general appropriations rather than being automatically appropriated. Appropriations for regular government programs, operations and for new expenditures actually shrunk in real terms by 17.2 percent.

 The decline in interest payments by 7.7 percent do not necessarily imply a reduction in debt burden but can be attributed to the US-Peso exchange rate and the retirement of short term debts for longer term maturity debts.  The President’s budget message claims the availability of funds for economic and social services and for new infrastructure projects. This is clearly misleading when the single biggest increase in the proposed budget are in fact already automatically appropriated.

Budget Itemsin % of Total Nominal Growth Rate Real Growth Rate New General Appropriations56.92(12.66)(17.21) Automatic Appropriations: Interests29.19(3.31)(7.86) Automatic Appropriations: Others Continuing Appropriations-(100.00)(104.55) sub total(1.61)(6.16) Less: unobligated allotments5.95(58.02)(62.57) Total obligations (1)

Across Sectors Looking at sectoral allocations, debt service (for interests alone) eats up 29.2 percent of the total budget. This, however, does not contain debt servicing for principal payments. If principal payments are reflected then it can be expected that debt servicing will eat a hefty chunk of the proposed 2007 budget. This allocation is almost equal to the allocation for the whole of the social service sector which will receive 29.2 percent of the 2007 budget. Economic services will only corner 20.7 percent of the budget.

Level % Distribution Growth Rate (Nominal) Sectoral Allocations Debt Service (interests)299,807339,998328, (3.31) Social Services255,533293,714329, Economic Services173,875196,945233, General Public Services168,998161,712182, Defense47,63452,65753, Net Lending1,7078,2509, Grand Total947,5541,053,2771,126,

On Budget Financing The appropriations bill regularly provides a copy of the national government’s budget financing plan. (Usually Table D of the BESF) This copy is not available in this year’s budget documents. It is within this table, the one can see the allocation for principal amortization.

At the same time, this table also shows how much government is planning to borrow for the coming year in order to finance its principal amortization payments and in order to finance this deficit. Previous years’ data on government financing showed that reduction in the fiscal deficit was caused primarily by GMA increasing its borrowings and cuts in spending for LGUs and social services.

Budget Advocacy Points

Transparency in the Presentation of the Budget The presentation of this year’s budget did not reflect the principal amortization on debt payments disallowing us to see the complete picture on debt servicing. While this amount is said to be an off budget item, in the past appropriations bill this has been reflected. It thus becomes misleading when the President’s budget message claim that our debt burden has been reduced. The national government financing plan must be presented by the Executive during the budget deliberations.

Repeal of the Automatic Appropriations Law (PD 1177) The FDC consistently calls on the Congress to repeal PD 1177 particularly provisions that automatically appropriates payments for debt principal amortization and interests. Automatically appropriated debt payments unnecessarily constrain government’s capacity to provide for vital economic and social services. At the same, government ends up automatically appropriating scare resources for payments of debt that have been found behest and/or onerous.

Stop Appropriations for Interests and Principal Debt Payments for Marcos Debts Immediately Investigate and Review Compromise Deals Entered into by the PCGG and other government agencies

As of end Dec 2005, the Bureau of Treasury estimates that the national government still has an outstanding obligation amounting UsD 783 million of all Marcos Debts. This means we shall continue to pay for interests and the principal amortization of these despite the fact that debts are considered odious and most of these debts are under contention by government itself. FDC asserts that payments for the remaining Marcos debts be stopped. In the immediate, the PNCC-Radstock compromise deal must be reviewed.

Assess future indebtedness by Reviewing government’s growing contingent liabilities particularly the executive’s policy on providing sovereign guarantees even for private enterprises.

Do not provide budget counterpart; and, Investigate new borrowings ridden with controversies such as the North Rail Project

Under the Senate investigation the PhP 28 billion North Rail Project approved by the GMA government is proving to be full of anomalies. This project was approved despite the lack of competitive public bidding, the questionable legality of the buyer credit loan agreement (BCLA) and the lack of the contractor’s engineering experience and expertise.

Although funded by a loan, Congress can refuse to allocate counterpart funds for this project in order to derail its implementation pending a full review. Not only will this avert implementation of an anomalous contract but it will also have a big impact in the country’s future indebtedness.