Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management The Future of Incarceration Christopher Stone February 2007

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management The growth of the US prison population over the last 30 years is well known Total US But no one is in charge of US penal policy…. It is mostly a matter for state and local governments where these rates vary widely.

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Some state prison populations grew in the 80s and 90s, but have since declined Total US New York Illinois Mass.

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Other states continue to drive their prison populations upwards Total US Florida New York Illinois Mass. Virginia Wisc.

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Total US Federal California Texas Florida New York Illinois Mass. Virginia Wisc. …and the federal prison system is growing faster than any state system. Two states account for most of the national growth since the mid-90s…

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Incarceration rates for Black, White, and Hispanic Americans, 2005 (per 100,000 population) Vermont Massachusetts Vermont has the fourth highest rate of Black imprisonment in the nation. Both New Hampshire & Connecticut are also above the national rate. New Hampshire Connecticut Blacks in Massachusetts have a higher incarceration rate than Blacks in the District of Columbia, Maryland, or New York. Connecticut and Massachusetts have the third and fourth highest rates of Hispanic incarceration in the country. Black incarceration rate for all states

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management The nation’s prison population will continue to grow Total US Federal California Florida New York Illinois Mass. Virginia Wisc. Projection A recent compilation of state projections forecasts 13% growth from ; higher than the growth rate from

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Two experts warn that we are locking in these high rates “On a national level, an African-American man today has a 30 percent lifetime chance of serving at least one year in prison. I would like to be optimistic about the likelihood of reversing this reality and returning to the status quo of 1972, but I think the chances of even getting close to that are slim. I think we have to recognize that we now live—regrettably in my view—in an era of mass incarceration.” Jeremy Travis, President, John Jay College of Criminal Justice “We are creating a culture of imprisonment; we are turbo- charging whatever is going wrong in those young people's lives.” Martin Horn, NY City Corrections Commissioner

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Incarceration Rates by State, 2005 (per 100,000 population)

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Nationally, 35% of people entering prison are there for violating parole 54% Increase 7% Increase 6% Increase 18% Increase

Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management Behind the numbers….