Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability assessment Trinity International Development Initiative Dr. Elizabeth Cullen 10th November 2011

‘Every doctor should know what to expect of the weather’ Hippocrates 400 B.C Hippocrates 400 B.C

Summary of presentation Climate change Climate change Impacts on health Impacts on health Conclusions Conclusions

Source: Hadley Centre 2005

Climate model A climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system and combines known laws of physics with factors such as climatic parameters and atmospheric factors to compute the evolving state of the climate in response to the changing composition of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004) A climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system and combines known laws of physics with factors such as climatic parameters and atmospheric factors to compute the evolving state of the climate in response to the changing composition of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004)

Impacts of climate change on health in Ireland Temperature related mortality Temperature related mortality Food-borne disease Food-borne disease Water-borne disease Water-borne disease Vector-borne diseases Vector-borne diseases Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, skin cancer Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, skin cancer

Reductions in mortality, particularly from cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and principally in the over 75 age group Reductions in mortality, particularly from cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and principally in the over 75 age group

Future changes in temperature related mortality % Change in mortality ( ) -2.1 ( ) -4.3 ( )

Foodborne disease

For every 1 degree rise in mean temperature: Salmonella 8% rise Salmonella 8% rise Campylobacter 6% rise Campylobacter 6% rise VTEC 6% rise VTEC 6% rise

Water-borne disease “ ”Water quality is only of importance to you if you use a tap or a toilet” Boyden, 2006

Climate change and rainfall in Ireland Wide-spread reduction in rain in East and South- East Wide-spread reduction in rain in East and South- East Increase in winter rain in the West Increase in winter rain in the West Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger area and persist for longer periods of time. Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger area and persist for longer periods of time.

Water quality and health : a multi-factorial issue Warmer temperatures - growth of micro-organisms Increased run-off and flooding VTEC and cryptosporidiosis Water treatment plants need urgent attention

Flooding No warning Night time Cold Immediate Immediate Mortality, trauma, pollution Mortality, trauma, pollution Delayed Delayed Leptospirosis,earache, skin infections, Leptospirosis,earache, skin infections, dampness, asthma dampness, asthma Psychological Psychological

Reduced water supplies Increased demand for water Population increases in the East Population increases in the East Warmer temperatures Warmer temperatures Increased use of surface water Decreased efficiency of treatment plants

EU Water Framework Directive To achieve ‘good status’ for all water bodies by 2015 To achieve ‘good status’ for all water bodies by 2015 New Drinking Water Regulations – will result in improved drinking water quality New Drinking Water Regulations – will result in improved drinking water quality

‘Safe water cannot be taken for granted’. (Wall 2001)

Other indirect effects Malaria and Lyme disease Skin cancer Allergies

Summary of findings Less temperature related mortality Less temperature related mortality Increase in food-borne disease Increase in food-borne disease Increase in water-borne disease Increase in water-borne disease Change in vector-borne diseases Change in vector-borne diseases Increase in skin cancer Increase in skin cancer Change in timing and location of allergic diseases Change in timing and location of allergic diseases

Recommendations Heat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ register Heat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ register Food hygiene Food hygiene WFD and Drinking Water regulations are public health issues WFD and Drinking Water regulations are public health issues Education re exposure to sun Education re exposure to sun

Africa Increase heat stress and drought -human and animal mortality Increase heat stress and drought -human and animal mortality Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and South Africa and decrease in Central Africa Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and South Africa and decrease in Central Africa Changes in tsetse fly distribution Changes in tsetse fly distribution Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - meningitis belt Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - meningitis belt Increased flooding in Eastern Africa Increased flooding in Eastern Africa

Drought Zambia 2002 Photo 2002 Richard Lord / UMCOR

The most important challenge is the limited capacity for research and adaptation in low- and middle-income countries” IPCC Fourth Report 2007

Conclusion Imbalance between human activity and environment diminish life support systems Imbalance between human activity and environment diminish life support systems Climate is a life supporting system Climate is a life supporting system We need to address the causes We need to address the causes

“We are in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have”. Douglas Kennedy 2006

I would like to acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth I would like to acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency Thank you Thank you