State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program Risk Assessment Process

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.2 How Does “Threat” Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process? Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.3 Threat Assessment Risk Assessment Needs Assessment Shortfalls or “Gaps” Desired Capabilities Current Capabilities Vulnerability Assessment Threat Assessment State Administrative Agency

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.4  PTE Defined  Groups or individuals indicating the unlawful use of force or violence  Specifically the utilization of a WMD…  To intimidate or coerce…  Government or civilian population…  Political or social purposes Threat Assessment R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 11

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.5  Weapons of Mass Destruction (18 USC 2332a) Defines a weapon of mass destruction as (1) any destructive device as defined in section 921 of this title, [which reads] any explosive, incendiary, or poison gas, bomb, grenade, rocket having a propellant charge of more than four ounces, missile having an explosive or incendiary charge of more than one-quarter ounce, mine or device similar to the above; (2) poison gas; (3) any weapon involving a disease organism; or (4) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human life. Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.6  Threat Working Group  Law enforcement personnel/intelligence components  Consider all appropriate personnel/agencies  Additional participants should be limited to subject matter experts who advise on terrorism related issues  FBI WMD Coordinator  FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force  Provide information on motives and capabilities of PTE Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.7  Joint Terrorism Task Force  Combines federal, state and local law enforcement  Develop cohesive strategy for identifying, investigating and prosecuting terrorists  Intelligence collection and analysis to prevent terrorist acts  66 JTTF’s nationwide Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.8  FBI WMD Coordinator  Located within FBI field offices  Assist state and local jurisdictions with identifying WMD threat elements  Assist state and local jurisdictions in their establishment of policies and procedures established for responding to WMD terrorist attacks  Liaison to the Joint Terrorism Task Force Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.9 Threat Assessment Law Enforcement On-line (LEO)

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.10  Safeguards  Information sharing limited to working group  No recording or forwarding of sensitive information  Alternatives recognized but require submission using existing format Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.11  Cautions  “Snapshot” of current operational activity within jurisdiction  Assessment does not warrant opening an investigation  Lone offenders and splinter groups should be considered  Different interpretations of threat factors  Tendency to “inflate” results Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.12  Threat Assessment Process  Assessment completion off-line  Organize threat working group  PTE existence  Past violent history  Evidence of intentions  Evidence of capability  Evidence of targeting  Jurisdiction threat rating (highest threat)  On-line entry of threat rating Threat Assessment R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 12

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.13  Document Threat Working Group  Jurisdiction population and coordinating agency  POC for Threat Working Group  Working group agencies  FBI/Joint Terrorism Task Force participation Threat Assessment R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 14

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.14 Threat Assessment Factors  Existence:  The presence of a group or individual, operating within the jurisdiction… Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.15  History:  Demonstrated past terrorist activity over time or a recorded, violent criminal history… Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.16  Intentions:  Credible advocacy/threats of force or violence, acts, preparations to act; evidencing intent to create a WMD, carry out a plan to release a WMD, or to participate in a WMD incident Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.17  Capability:  Credible information that a specific PTE possesses the requisite training, skills, finances, and access to resources needed to develop, produce, or acquire a particular type of WMD in a quantity and/or potency sufficient to produce mass casualties, combined with information substantiating the PTE’s ability to safely store, test, and deliver the same Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.18  Targeting:  Credible information indicative of preparations for specific terrorist operations against identifiable targets located within the specified jurisdiction Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.19 Threat Factor Values Threat Assessment R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 16

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.20  Assess PTE Motivations  Political  Religious  Racial  Environmental  Special Interest Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.21  Identify WMD Capabilities of PTE  Chemical  Biological  Radiological  Nuclear  Explosive Threat Assessment CBRNE

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.22 Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Threat Factors Threat Level (1-10) Motivation P=Political R=Religious E=Environmental Ra=Racial S=Special Interest Choose one or more WMD Categories C=Chemical B=Biological R=Radiological N=Nuclear E=Explosive Choose one or more PTE Existence (1) Violent History (1) Intentions (2) WMD Capability (2) Targeting (4) PTE 1 112RaE PTE 2 PTE 3

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.23  Jurisdiction Threat Profile process  Number of PTE  Existing PTE capabilities  WMD Threat History  Jurisdiction Threat Rating Threat Assessment R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 18

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.24  Step 1 - Number of PTE  PTE assessed in your jurisdiction  If no known PTE - a rating of zero is recorded here Threat Assessment Total Number of PTE

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.25  Step 2 - Existing PTE capabilities  Document PTE capabilities  CBRNE Threat Assessment ChemicalNuclear BiologicalExplosive RadiologicalNone

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.26  Step 3 - WMD Threat History  Document threat history  January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2002 Threat Assessment Threatened WMD Hazard Total Number of Responses to Suspected WMD Threats and/or Incidents Number of WMD Threats and/or Incidents Determined to be Criminal Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear Explosive

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.27  Step 4 - Threat Rating  Jurisdiction threat rating  Highest threat level Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Threat Rating

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.28 DISCUSSION Threat Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.29 How Does “Vulnerability” Fit Into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process? Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.30 Basic Vulnerability Assessment Risk Assessment Needs Assessment Shortfalls or “Gaps” Desired Capabilities Current Capabilities Threat Assessment Vulnerability Assessment State Administrative Agency

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.31  Vulnerability Defined  The process of identifying any weaknesses that can be exploited by an adversary to gain access or information  Vulnerabilities can result from, but are not limited to:  Building characteristics  Equipment properties  Personal behavior  Operational practices Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.32  Potential Targets  Facilities  Sites  Systems  Special events Basic Vulnerability Assessment R E F E R E N C E : Reference Handbook page B-10

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.33  Vulnerability Working Group  Multi-discipline members  Include personnel who can provide specific information unique to potential target Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.34 Basic Vulnerability Assessment 4 Step Process Identify Potential Targets Critical Assets List Top 10% (10 or less – all targets) Determine Jurisdictional Vulnerability Highest Worksheet Rating Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating Conduct Individual Target Vulnerability Assessments Vulnerability Assessment Worksheets 7 Assessment Factors Organize the Assessment Team Multidiscipline members Working knowledge of facilities, sites, systems, or special events R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 20

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.35  Seven Factors Used to Assess Vulnerability  Level of visibility  Criticality of target site to jurisdiction  Impact outside of the jurisdiction  PTE access to potential target  Potential target threat of hazard  Potential target site population capacity  Potential for collateral mass casualties Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.36  Step 1 - Assess the awareness of the existence and visibility of the target to the general public Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.37  Step 2 - Assess usefulness of assets to local population, economy, government, etc. Potential targets deemed essential to the continuity of the jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.38  Step 3 - Assess the effect loss will have outside of the jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.39  Step 4 - Assess the availability of the target for ingress and egress by a PTE Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.40  Step 5 - Assess the presence of legal WMD material (CBRNE) in quantities that could be the target of a terrorist attack or would complicate the response to an incident at that facility Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.41  Step 6 - Assess the maximum number of individuals at a site at any given time Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.42  Step 7 - Assess potential collateral mass casualties within a one-mile radius of the target site Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.43  Summary score  Rating key  Enter target rating  Document rating for each target Basic Vulnerability Assessment Summary Score _____Visibility _____Criticality _____Impact Outside Jurisdiction _____PTE Access to Target _____Potential Target Threat _____Potential Site Population _____Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties ____ TOTAL Basic Target Vulnerability Assessment Rating Key pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = pts. = 12 Target Name or Number: Rating

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.44  Final vulnerability rating  Highest vulnerability rating of all site/targets  Include raw score Basic Vulnerability Assessment Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating Basic Vulnerability Summary Raw Score (Highest Target Score) Basic Vulnerability Rating R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 25

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.45  Legal Hazards:  Adhere to CBRNE definitions Basic Vulnerability Assessment CBRNE Material Number of sites located in jurisdiction Chemical (Tier II) Biological (Infectious Only) Radiological Nuclear Explosive

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.46  Critical Infrastructure Assessment  IAIP in conjunction with the TSA desire to collect Vulnerability Worksheets  Need to compile a national list of valuable assets  USSS Key Asset Program contact  FOIA considerations Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.47  Site-Specific Vulnerability Assessment  Survey for ODP  Specialized assessment to harden target  Estimates future assessments required  By jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 27

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program 5.48 DISCUSSION Basic Vulnerability Assessment