Linac4 Risk Assessment Criteria and Methodology

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi Definitions A risk is any event that could produce a change in the project management plan: A threat has negative impact An opportunity has positive impact A risk is defined by its probability to occur and by its impact on project objectives. Project objectives are: Cost, Time, Scope and Quality Scope Availability of the injector Quality Beam Brightness for LHC

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi Objective Decide actions and develop strategies to minimize threats (and enhance opportunities). Define clear responsibilities for each risk response, which should be accepted by all parties involved. Link the risk management activity to all other management processes.

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi Tools The Risk Management Plan: Provides definitions for roles & responsibilities, for probability and impact of a risk, defines criteria for risk evaluation and possible responses. It defines the processes involved in the risk management activity. The Risk Response Plan The Risk Register: Lists the prioritized risks by their “scores”, highlights the risk owners, summarizes risk responses and contingency plans. OUTPUT Risk Monitoring and Control

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi The Risk Management Plan methodology The risk owner for the RMP is the Linac4 project management, which supervises the implementation of the Risk Response Plan. Work package holders have already minimized risks within their work packages. First risk identification is performed in a brainstorming session of the Core Team. The risk analysis will be initially qualitative. Quantitative risk analysis is left to cases with high impact if more information is required to prioritize the response. The draft of the Risk Register will be submitted to work package holders for feedback. The Risk Response Plan is revised at least once per year and after that significant project milestones are obtained.

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi The Risk Management Plan criteria The project objectives have been benchmarked as follows: COST: project overall cost estimate (baseline 2009) TIME: project total duration (baseline 2009) SCOPE: injector availability (reference to Linac2) QUALITY: beam brightness for LHC as compared to Linac2

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi The Risk Management Plan criteria Criteria for impact on project objectives: Impact on Cost: I c =  cost / overall cost Impact on Time: I t =  time / total duration Impact on Scope: I s = Injector Beam uptime after 1 year of operation Impact on Quality: I q = enhancing factor to L2 beam brightness. Impact on project objectives: IMPACT / Project objectives Cost (%) Time (yr) Scope (%) Quality (L2) CATASTROPHIC 30 < I c 2 ≤ I t I s < 70I q < 0.5 CRITICAL 20 < I c < 30I t = 170 < I s < < I q < 1 MARGINAL 5 < I c < 20I t = < I s < 981 < I q < 1.5 NEGLIGIBLE I c < 5I t < ≤ I s 1.5 < I q < 2

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi The Risk Management Plan criteria The probability for a risk to occur is summarized by four levels: HIGH:50% < P. Several evidences already present. MEDIUM: 20% < P < 50%. A few evidences already present. LOW: 5% < P < 20%. One simple indication exists. VERY LOW:P < 5%. No indications, but still some probability. The “score” associated to a risk is given by: S = P x Impact (I c, I t, I s, I q )

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi The Probability and Impact Matrix CATASTROPHICCRITICALMARGINALNEGLIGIBLE HIGH MAX IMPORTANTMINOR MEDIUM MAXIMPORTANTMINORMIN LOW IMPORTANTMINOR MIN VERY LOW MINORMIN Numerical values could be associated to Probability and Impact: PROBABILITY : HIGH = 4, MEDIUM = 3, LOW = 2, VERY LOW = 1 IMPACT : CATASTROPHIC = 5, CRITICAL = 3, MARGINAL = 2, NEGLIGIBLE = 1

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi The Risk Register Excel file summarizing information on identified risks: It may contain also: Indication of common risk causes; Triggers for contingency plans; Responsibilities for risk responses.

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi The Risk Response Plan The activity of Risk Response Planning concerns: planning interventions to reduce the risk to a project developing and enlisting a series of options in hopes of reducing any threats that may exist to the predefined project objectives. Possible responses to a risk: AVOIDANCE : change the project plan to avoid the threat or reduce the scope of the project ACCEPTANCE : Active Acceptance: a contingency plan is developed should the risk occur Passive Acceptance: no action required MITIGATION : reduce the consequences of a threat. Reduce the probability of the event TRANSFER : transfer the risk to a third party that has more suitable means to face it.

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi Risk Monitoring and Control The activity of Risk Monitoring and Control concerns: Updating the Risk Register; Reviewing the risk responses and evaluating their effectiveness; Integrating the risk management activities into the management process. Risk Monitoring & Control Risk Monitoring & Control Qualitative / Quantitative Risk Analysis Qualitative / Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Register Risk Identification Risk Identification Risk Response Planning Risk Response Planning