Applying SEEM Updates, Calibration, and Measure Interaction Decisions to: Single Family Weatherization and HVAC UES Measures Regional Technical Forum August 12, 2014

Goal for Today Get approval (or direction) on updated Savings and Costs for Residential Weatherization and HVAC UES measures for Single Family homes. 2

Our Journey Staff Highlights - 3 SEEM Calibration Phase I Phase II “Option 3” More Data? Option 3 Uo-based Are we there yet? LMI, Old Calibration, Old SEEM Tweak Option 3

Presentation Outline Measure Overview Staff Highlighted Areas Measure Analysis & Results – Heating – Cooling – Costs Staff Recommendations Proposed Decision 4

Measure Overview 5

MeasureMeasure SpecificationsHeating System Measure Identifiers Starting PointEnding Point Attic: R0-R38< R-7 R-38 or highest practical Electric Forced Air Electric Zonal Air Source Heat Pump Ductless Heat Pump Attic: R0-R49< R-7R-49 Attic: R11-R38*≥ R-7, ≤ R-11 R-38 or highest practical Attic: R11-R49*≥ R-7, ≤ R-11R-49 Attic: R19-R38> R-11, ≤ R-19 R-38 or highest practical Attic: R19-R49> R-11, ≤ R-19R-49 Attic: R30-R49> R-19, ≤ R-30R-49 Attic: R38-R49 ≤ R-38R-49 Wall: R0-R11No insulationFill cavity Floor: R0-R19< R-11≥ R-19 Floor: R0-R25< R-11≥ R-25 Floor: R0-R30< R-11≥ R-30 Measure Overview - 6 Missing, but will add: Attic R30-R38; Floor R19-R30 Intentionally removed: Attic R0-R19 (Attic R0-38 is required by specs) * This is a new measure

MeasureMeasure SpecificationsHeating System Measure Identifiers Starting PointEnding Point Window: Single-u30Single Pane ≤ u-30 Electric Forced Air Electric Zonal Air Source Heat Pump Ductless Heat Pump Window: Double-u30Double Pane Metal Frame ≤ u-30 Window: u35-u30Std. Practice ≤ u-30 Window: Single-u22Single Pane ≤ u-22 Window: Double-u22Double Pane Metal Frame ≤ u-22 Window: u35-u22Std. Practice ≤ u-22 Infiltration Reduction*Pre-blower doorPost-blower door ASHP UpgradeStd. PracticeHSPF ≥ 9.0 ASHP FAF to ASHP ConversionElectric FAFStd. Practice ASHP eFAF Zonal to DHP ConversionElectric ZonalDHP in main area eZonal ASHP PTCS CC&SStd. PracticePTCS CC&S ASHP Duct TightnessStd. PracticePTCS Ducts eFAF & ASHP Measure Overview - 7 Missing, but will add: Zonal to ASHP conversion; FAF to DHP conversion (after BPA/Ecotope proposal) * Changed from kWh/0.1ΔACHn/ft 2 to kWh/ΔCFM 50

Staff Highlighted Areas 1.Mixing Measure Identifiers and Option 3 – Staff recommends adding simple measure identifiers to the heat pump conversion measures to alleviate potential errors in savings. This would cause program burden, however. 2.Cooling Calibration – Does the RTF approve of the proposed cooling calibration? 3.Cost Analysis – Updates to weatherization based on SIW updates. – Changes to the heat pump conversion methodology (forecast of cooling equipment and addition of cooling NEB) to align with recently approved DHP methodology. – Correction made to the DHP cooling NEB methodology. 4.Cost-Effectiveness – Many measures are no longer cost-effective. Staff Highlights - 8

Measure UES Analysis and Results 9

Workbooks Analysis - 10 Savings Analysis Workbook: “SEEMruns_SingleFamilyE xistingHVACandWeatheriz ation_all.xlsm” Wx UES Measure Workbook: “ResSFWx_v3_Proposed.x lsm” HVAC UES Measure Workbook: “ResSFHVAC_v1_Propose d.xlsm” PTCS Ducts SF Measure Workbook (provisional): “tbd.xlsm” PTCS CC&S Measure Workbook (provisional): “tbd.xlsm” SEEM Calibration Workbooks - Heating - Cooling

Key Drivers of Savings Calculations SEEM – Updated with improved infiltration modeling Phase I Calibration – Aligns SEEM heating energy use output with RBSA houses with well-known heating energy use Phase II Calibration – Aligns SEEM heating energy use with program-eligible houses, making adjustments for partially occupied and unoccupied houses, non-electric fuels, etc. Measure Interactions: Option 3 – Modifies the “last-measure-in” method to take into account starting point of RBSA houses. This allows measures to be additive. Heating system type is a measure identifier Analysis - 11

Analysis - 12 Adjustment factors are to be applied to the heating energy use output of RTF standard SEEM runs (69F/64F).

Phase II Adjustments These adjustment factors are applied to the Phase I-adjusted heating energy use to determine a) heating energy use, and b) non-electric heat consumption (in kWh/yr). Analysis - 13

Measure Interactions - Option 3 Analysis - 14

Measure Interactions - Option 3 Full Measure Package (Defining efficiency levels) Attic: R-38 Walls: R-11 Floors: R-25 Windows: u-0.30 Infiltration: 0.35 ACHn Duct Tightness: PTCS Duct Insulation: Existing Heat Pump HSPF: 9.0 HP CC&S: PTCS Analysis - 15 Limit on Full Measure Package (Maximum efficiency of starting point) Attic: R-19 Walls: R-0 Floors: R-0 Windows: Double Pane Metal Frame Infiltration: 0.35 ACHn Duct Tightness: n/a Duct Insulation: n/a Heat Pump HSPF: n/a HP CC&S: n/a The analysis stopped short of bringing all RBSA houses up to the full measure package level – houses with moderate existing levels of insulation did not receive the full measure package levels (example: Existing R30 in the attics remained).

Heating System as Identifier – Savings Logic Analysis - 16 Heat Pump Logic, Example using fake numbers

Mixing Measure Identifiers and “Option 3”: Program Implications Order of measure installation can cause a significant difference in total claimed savings – In reality, the order shouldn’t matter; the total savings should be the same. Analysis - 17 This is a concession we made in favor of ease of program implementation, but is this the magnitude of differences in savings we expected? – Staff’s take – this is an issue (we don’t know how big) and should be addressed. – Possible solution: Have more measure identifiers in the heat pump measure. For example, measure identifiers might be: little insulation, some insulation, insulated This adds burden to programs and the RTF 1

18 This slide is from the October 15, 2013 presentation where the RTF selected Option 3.

Other Things to Note Measures with DHP heating systems use characteristic scenarios for zonal houses. – This is because there aren’t enough DHP houses in the RBSA to determine characteristic scenarios. Analysis excludes electronic t-stats (zonal houses) and GSHP’s. Analysis - 19

Results 20

Heating Savings: Attic Insulation 21

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Heating Savings: Wall & Floor Insulation 25

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Heating Savings: Windows 29

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Heating Savings: Infiltration and Heat Pumps 33

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Cooling Savings Historically, cooling savings have been – Uncalibrated – A small fraction of heating savings Now, cooling savings are – Still a small fraction of heating savings EXCEPT: Heat pumps 36

Cooling Calibration Data: RBSA Metering Study (Available on NEEA’s website) (Available on NEEA’s website) Methodology: – Using the characteristics data in the RBSA, SEEM runs were developed for these 23 houses. The cooling thermostat input was adjusted until the average cooling energy use (per ft 2 ) matched the metering study average of 0.4 kWh/ft 2 /year. Result: Cooling T-stat Setting = 78°F (no setback) 37 2

Cooling System Weightings 38 RAC systems include PTAC, “Window Shakers”, and Evaporative Coolers. RAC=room AC; CAC=central AC

Cooling Savings Methodology: HP’s For HP’s, RAC are assumed to use ½ the energy of a CAC system, based on 78°F. For DHP’s, AC use is based on DHP metering study 18 SEER, 9 SEER). See ResSFHVAC workbook, CostData&Analysis tab for calculation details 39

40 Cells where cooling savings are significant (10% or more of total savings) are highlighted in red. Note: To simplify analysis, and since they make up a small fraction of the total savings, cooling savings are calculated using “LMI”, not “Option 3”.

Measure Costs 41

42 The cost for infiltration reduction remains unchanged: $0.66/CFM50.

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Methodology for Estimating Costs for FAF  HP and Zonal  DHP Measures Net Incremental Cost = Heat Pump Cost – CAC Cost Credit – RAC Cost Credit – FAF Replacement Cost (FAF replacement cost = $1030 for HP; not applicable to DHP) 44 3

“Heat Pump: FAF w/ (and w/o) CAC to HP” measures are currently run in ProCost as “retrofit” measures. However, their costs make them look more like a “lost opportunity measure”: Measure Cost (w/o CAC) = Heat Pump Installation Cost – FAF Replacement Cost Measure Cost (w/CAC) = Heat Pump Installation Cost – FAF Replacement Cost–CAC Cost To fix this, staff suggests setting an RUL for the existing equipment (FAF, CAC, and RAC) and using the present value of the replacement cost in the Measure Cost equation: Measure Cost (w/o CAC) = Heat Pump Installation Cost – PV(FAF Replacement Cost) Measure Cost (w/CAC) = Heat Pump Installation Cost – PV(FAF Replacement Cost)–PV(CAC Cost) The RTF should set RUL’s for FAF, CAC, and RAC. 45 More On: Methodology for Estimating Costs for FAF  HP and Zonal  DHP Measures

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Methodology for Estimating Annual Cooling NEB Annual Cooling NEB = Retail Rate of Electricity (from SIW) * Cooling NEB Where, Cooling NEB is the energy consumption of additional air conditioning use DHP

Measure Cost-Effectiveness 48

49 Proposed Measure Cost-Effectiveness Green=Cost-effective; Red=Not Cost-effective (Values are TRC B/C Ratio’s) 4

50 Proposed Measure Cost-Effectiveness Green=Cost-effective; Red=Not Cost-effective (Values are TRC B/C Ratio’s) 4

51 Changes to Cost-effectiveness 4

52 Changes to Cost-effectiveness 4

Staff Recommendations Approve Cooling Calibration for SF & MH, new and existing. Define three measure identifiers “insulated”, “partially insulated”, “uninsulated” for heat pump conversion measures and revise analysis. Set RUL’s as follows (based on judgment/guesses) FAF: 10 years; CAC: 3 years; RAC: 3 years Adopt the Wx & HVAC measures (except for heat pump conversions, which need measure identifiers). Approve new revised savings for PTCS Duct Sealing, but set status to Under Review. – BPA evaluation results are coming soon. Early results show savings could be reduced significantly. Approve new revised savings for PTCS CC&S, but leave status as Under Review, and category as Planning – See July presentation for details, but still needs specification update, research plan, and baseline adjustment. Recommendations - 53

Decisions “I _______ move the RTF: Approve the cooling calibration, as proposed, for new and existing single family and manufactured homes. Adopt the updated savings and costs for Single Family Weatherization UES measures as proposed, and set measure status and category as follows: – Attic Insulation: Status = Active, Category = Proven – Wall Insulation: Status = Active, Category = Proven – Floor Insulation: Status = Active, Category = Proven – Window Retrofit: Status = Active, Category = Proven – Window Upgrades: Status = Active, Category = Proven – Infiltration Reduction: Status = Active, Category = Proven Set Remaining Useful Lives for electric Forced Air Furnace = 10 years, Central Air Conditioners = 3 years, and Room Air Conditioners = 3 years for the purpose of determining cost of the heat pump conversion measures. Approve Staff to (Add) / (Not add) measure identifiers to heat pump conversion measures. Adopt the updated savings and costs for Single Family HVAC UES measures as proposed, and set measure status and category as follows: – Heat Pump Upgrades: Status = Active, Category = Proven – Heat Pump Conversion from FAF: Status = (depends on decision above), Category = (depends on decision above) – DHP in Zonal Heated House: Status = (depends on decision above), Category = (depends on decision above) – Duct Sealing: Status = Under Review, Category = Proven – PTCS CC&S: Status = Under Review, Category = Planning. “ 54

Additional Slides For Reference 55

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