Financial Stability Report 2009:

Financial Markets

The central banks’ balance sheets Index, January 2000=100 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and BloombergChart 1:1

Three-month interbank rate relative to expected policy rate Basis points Source: BloombergChart 1:2

Outstanding volumes in US commercial paper USD, billions Source: Federal ReserveChart 1:3

Outstanding volumes of EUR commercial paper USD, billions Source: EuroclearChart 1:4

Ten-year government bond yields in various countries Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:5

Swedish government bond yields Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:6

European countries’ borrowing requirements 2009, as a percentage of GDP Per cent Source: FitchRatingsChart 1:7

Standard & Poor’s upgrades and downgrades, per quarter Source: BloombergChart 1:8

Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the United States and euro area Basis points Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:9

Credit spreads for high yield corporate bonds in the United States and euro area Basis points Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:10

Global default rate, actual and forecast Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:11

Difference between mortgage bond yields and government bond yield with two and five years maturity respectively Basis points Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:12

Premiums in the CDS index Basis points Sources: EcoWin Reuters och BloombergChart 1:13

Stock market developments Index, 28 December 2007=100 Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:14

Implied stock market volatility Per cent, 10 day moving average Source: BloombergChart 1:15

P/E ratios Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:16

The monetary base in Sweden SEK Billion Source: The RiksbankChart B1

GDP in Eastern Europe Annual percentage change Sources: The IMF and the RiksbankChart B2

GDP and IMF forecast for 2009 Annual percentage change Sources: The IMF and the RiksbankChart B3

Exchange rates against EUR Index, September 2008=100 Sources: Reuters EcoWinChart B4

Exposure to Eastern Europe, as a proportion of host country’s GDP 2008 Per cent Sources: BIS and IMFChart B5

How has your propensity to take risk changed compared to six months ago? Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart B6

How has your institution’s buffer of liquid assets changed in relation to six months ago? Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart B7

Do you consider that the financial crisis has peaked? Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart B8

The Swedish household sector

The banks' lending broken down into Swedish and foreign households and companies, December 2008 Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart 2:1

Banks' loan losses, allocated by geographical location, Q and Q Per cent of total loan losses Source: The RiksbankChart 2:2

Households' financial net wealth in relation to disposable incomes Per cent Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:3

Households' nominal disposable incomes and saving ratio Annual percentage change and per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:4

Households' total borrowing from credit institutions Annual percentage change Source: The RiksbankChart 2:5

Mortgage rate, interbank rate and repo rate Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:6

Housing equity withdrawal in Sweden, the United Kingdom and Australia Per cent of disposable income Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:7

Households' debt and post tax interest expenditures Per cent of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:8

Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential loan losses Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:9

Percentage debt, financial assets and real assets held by indebted households in different income groups Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:10

House prices in Sweden, Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö regions Index: 1986=100 Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:11

Tenant-owned apartment prices, three- month moving average SEK per square metre Source: 2:12

Time to sale, sell houses and tenant-owned apartments in Sweden Number of days, median Sources: Hemnet and 2:13

Housing investments in relation to GDP, seasonally-adjusted data Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:14

Number of housing starts in relation to population Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:15

Indebted households' interest ratio and debt ratio broken down into different income groups Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart B9

The Swedish corporate sector

Current ratio in Swedish listed companies Per cent Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:16

Debt/equity ratio in Swedish listed companies Ratio Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:17

Profitability in Swedish listed companies Per cent Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:18

Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companies Ratio Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:19

Lending rates on new loans signed by non-financial companies Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:20

The number of company bankruptcies broken down by company size Twelve-month moving average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:21

Bankruptcies during and after various crises in Sweden Index, last month prior to beginning of crisis = 100 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:22

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investment Annual percentage change Source: The RiksbankChart 2:23

Maturity structure for outstanding corporate bonds SEK billion Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:24

Maturity structure for corporate certificates 2009 SEK billion Source: Euroclear Sweden AB and the RiksbankChart 2:25

Corporate credit quality measured by expected Expected default frequency (EDF), historical outcomes and forecasts according to the Riksbank’s main scenario Per cent Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:26

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and their securities funding in Sweden and abroad SEK billion Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart B10

Total issued in the Swedish corporate bond market broken down by issuer SEK billion Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart B11

The commercial property market

Commercial property prices in Sweden and abroad Annual percentage change Sources: Investment Property Databank (IPD), Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate and the RiksbankChart 2:27

Commercial property prices in Sweden Annual percentage change Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:28

Real prices of office premises in city centres Index 1981 = 100 Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:29

Average yield levels for modern office premises in city centres Per cent Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:30

Real prices and rents of office premises in Stockholm city centre Annual percentage change Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:31

Real rents of office premises in city centres Index 1981 = 100 Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:32

Vacancy rate for office premises in city centres Per cent Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:33

Vacancy rate and nominal rents for office premises in Stockholm city centre Per cent, SEK per square metre and year Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:34

Price development of property shares Index 29 December 1995=100 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:35

The property companies' credit quality measured according to the EDF Per cent Source: Moody's KMV CreditEdgeChart 2:36

The Nordic countries excluding Sweden and Germany

House prices Annual percentage change Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the BISChart 2:37

Companies’ borrowings Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:38

Households’ borrowings Annual percentage change Sources: Reuters EcoWin, ECB and the RiksbankChart 2:39

Expected default frequency for listed non-financial companies Per cent Source: Moody’s KMV Credit EdgeChart 2:40

Expected default frequency for transport companies Per cent Source: Moody’s KMV Credit EdgeChart 2:41

Expected default frequency for construction companies Per cent Source: Moody’s KMV Credit EdgeChart 2:42

Commercial property prices Annual percentage change Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IPD and the RiksbankChart 2:43

The Baltic countries

GDP Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:44

Real exchange rates for the Baltic countries Index 2000=100 Source: The BISChart 2:45

Change in export and real exchange rates for various countries Per cent Sources: BIS and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:46

Current account Percentage of GDP, totalled over four quarters Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:47

Unemployment Per cent Source: EurostatChart 2:48

Real wages Annual percentage change Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:49

Harmonised index for consumer prices Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:50

Consumer confidence indicator Net figures, per cent Source: European CommissionChart 2:51

Household borrowing Percentage change from the previous month, calculated as an annual rate Sources: National central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:52

Corporate borrowing Percentage change from the previous month, calculated as an annual rate Sources: National central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:53

Households’ and companies’ debts in relation to GDP in the Baltic countries and Sweden Per cent Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin.Chart 2:54

Late payments in Estonia and Latvia Per cent of outstanding loans Sources: Eesti Pank and the Financial and Capital Market CommissionChart 2:55

Ukraina

Industrial production in Ukraine Annual percentage change Sources: Reuters EcoWin, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine and the RiksbankChart 2:56

Exchange rates Hryvnia per dollar and per euro Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:57

Households' bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency in Ukraine Per cent of nominal GDP Sources: Reuters EcoWin, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF and the RiksbankChart 2:58

Non-financial companies' bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency Per cent of nominal GDP Sources: Reuters EcoWin, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF and the RiksbankChart 2:59

Developments in the banks

Distribution of net operating profits 2008 Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:1

The banks’ earnings SEK billion Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:2

Lending per geographical area and borrower category Per cent of total lending Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:3

Earnings distribution over the last three years Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:4

Net interest income in relation to interest-bearing assets Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:5

The major banks’ securities-related commission income and turnover and stock market index Index: 2003 Q 1 = 100 Sources: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the RiksbankChart 3:6

Cost-effectiveness at the major banks Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:7

Allocation of assets weighted for risk Per cent, March 2009 Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:8

Share valuation and CDS premiums over the previous year Sources: Bloomberg, Handelsbanken Capital Markets and the RiksbankChart 3:9

Market shares of lending in the Baltic countries Per cent, March 2009 Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:10

The major bank’s loan losses Percentage of lending Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.Chart 3:11

The major banks’ impaired loans, loan losses and provisions Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:12

Earnings before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major banks Summed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 Mars 09 Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the RiksbankChart 3:13

Distribution of loan losses per region in the Riksbank’s main scenario Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:14

Distribution of loan losses in 2009 and 2010 in the Riksbank’s main scenario Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:15

Tier 1 capital ratios including new issues Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:16

The core Tier 1 capital ratios of European banks Per cent, first quarter 2009 Source: NomuraChart 3:17

The banks’ sources of funding Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:18

The banks’ deposits and lending SEK billion Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:19

Annual change in the banks’ lending to other credit institutions SEK billion Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:20

The major bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another bank defaulted on its payments Per cent Source.: The RiksbankChart 3:21

The banks’ actual Tier 1 ratios and Tier 1 ratios in the stress test Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:22

Regulatory capital requirement, economic capital and Tier 1 capital As a percentage of balance sheet total, December 2008 Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart B12

Article: Global recession and financial stability

Global GDP growth Annual percentage change Sources: IMF and the RiksbankChart 1

Actual global level of defaults and forecast Percentage of total number of companies Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Moody’sChart 2

GDP growth during various crises Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 3

GDP growth during the Asian crisis Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 4

Proportion of problem loans and GDP loss internationally in a selection of previous crises Per cent Source: Laeven, Luc and Valencia (2008),”Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database” IMF Working PaperChart 5

Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the United States Basis points Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 6