HOW PRESIDENTIAL IS TONY BLAIR?

How powerful is the British Prime Minister? “ In a huge range of areas the British executive may bypass the parliamentary process, as it enjoys the inherent power and authority to act and take decisions in many instances by virtue of Crown prerogative.” Matthew Flinders, Politics Review, Vol 13 No 1

What are the powers of the British Prime Minister? Appoints ministers Chairs cabinet Directs government policy Party leader Commons majority Can reorganise structure of government Can exercise powers of royal prerogative Chooses date of general election

Other factors that contribute to PM’s power High public profile – best known person in government Prime Minister has no departmental responsibilities – free range over govt. business Represents country internationally Controls government media relations

The Blair Effect – Has he changed things? Changed PMQ’s Cabinet meetings are shorter More reliance on inner cabinet? Media control? Independence for ministers – is there any? How much regard does he have for Parliament? Does he act like a monarch?

Blair as President? Little time for cabinet government – they last little over half an hour Prefers one to one meetings with ministers Little time for Parliament – as a rule, he attends only for PMQs – once a week Prime Minister’s Office has been strengthened – large number of Special Advisers Main check on Blair’s authority seems to be the influence of Gordon Brown as Chancellor

Issues supporting ‘presidential’ theory War policy (Iraq, Kosovo) – Iraq, especially, conducted in spite of party and public opposition Education policy conducted from No. 10 when Estelle Morris was Minister – real influence held by No. 10 policy adviser Andrew Adonis Blair frequently overrode even senior ministers – e.g. Robin Cook over arms to Mugabe – Blair took advice of chief of staff Jonathan Powell instead

Issues supporting ‘presidential’ theory Establishment of No. 10 Press Conferences Policy announcements made straight to media, before being made in Parliament (e.g. independence for Bank of England, proposals for judicial reform and abolition of Lord Chancellor) Announcement of referendum on European Constitution made without consultation in cabinet

What limits have been apparent on Blair? In his second term, Blair has faced increasing opposition in Parliament, mainly from his own party – foundation hospitals, tuition fees, war with Iraq. House of Lords has checked several policies – Hunting Bill, Judicial Reform, Committee system has put heat on government in some areas – notably Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committees, again over Iraq The media – but this, of course, is not a constitutional check

In the Third Term… Tony Blair has already faced defeat at the hands of MPs – on Detention for 90 days, and the religious hatred Bill. He has had to rely on Conservative votes to pass his Education Bill. He is hampered by the knowledge that he will not fight another election. He has been embroiled in the loans for peerages scandal.

Limits on Blair Gordon Brown’s influence “Blair’s one to ones are one-way traffic except when Gordon Brown is in the room” (Cohen, New Statesman, May 02) Unrest amongst his own MP’s – recent speculation about his leadership

“Control means influence, not direct power; advice, not command; criticism, not obstruction; scrutiny, not initiation; and publicity, not secrecy. Here is a very realistic sense of parliamentary control which does affect any government.” Bernard Crick (1968)

Thatcher and Blair – similar leaders? Both dominant leaders Both seemed to operate without reference to cabinet High profile international issues boosted authority (Falklands, Iraq) Both relied heavily on press adviser (Bernard Ingham, Alistair Campbell) Both sometimes seemed to prefer advice of advisers over Cabinet

Blair and Thatcher - Differences Thatcher held longer Cabinet meetings, although used them to argue with her ministers as much as decision making meetings Thatcher had fewer ‘yes men’ in Cabinet No press conferences under Thatcher BUT, main lesson for Blair – when Thatcher lost confidence of her Cabinet and parliamentary party over policy that she forced through – she lost office.