Eugenijus Ušpuras Lithuanian Energy Institute Lithuanian Research Activities in Energy Security.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Capacity Building for Public Health and Health Promotion in Central and Eastern Europe Caroline Costongs Programme Manager EuroHealthNet
Advertisements

STATE OF TRANSPORT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN EEA COUNTRIES, RECENT EXPERIENCES Natalia Sobrino (TRANSyT- UPM) ETC/CCA Task Adaptation.
Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP)
The future Role of VPPs in Europe Pan European Balancing Market: EU-FP7-Project eBadge Workshop on DSM Potentials, Implementations and Experiences 20 th.
New market instruments for RES-E to meet the 20/20/20 targets Sophie Dourlens-Quaranta, Technofi (Market4RES WP4 leader) Market4RES public kick-off Brussels,
VIEW TO CO2-EMISSIONS IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH REORGANIZATION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE Gintaras DENAFAS Department for Environmental Engineering, Kaunas.
1 Antonio Soria Head of Unit Economics of Energy, Climate Change and Transport Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Joint Research Centre European.
New opportunities for regional development through cross-border cooperation Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development November 16,
Baltic Energy Strategy Einari Kisel Director of Energy Department.
Energy Policy in Romania BOGOS Zsolt, Secretary of State Ministry of Economy and Commerce, Romania - Black Sea Energy Conference - 3 – 5 April 2006, Bucharest,
EStorage First Annual Workshop Arnhem, NL 30, Oct Olivier Teller.
EU Energy Strategy
IES Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy.
Russian Energy Strategy up to Period 2030: Questions, Troubles, Risks Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia.
BALTIC RING STUDY From the beginning of 1996 to early 1998, 18 power companies and utility organizations from the 11 countries around the Baltic Sea have.
Climate Change Research Initiatives in EU Member States Side event: Research in response to the IPCC TAR 21 June, 2004, Bonn SB20 Dr. Frank McGovern, Ireland.
NEW VISION OF ENGINEERING ECONOMY COURSE (VISION) MODULE 3 LECTURE 7 Cairo, 17 July 2005.
Naujos galimybės pastačius naujas elektros jungtis ir SGD terminalą New opportunities after construction of new interconectors and LNG terminal prof. Jurgis.
RES Integration for Increasing of Energy Supply Security in Latvia: ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICAL FACTORS NEEDS FORUM 2 “Energy and Supply Security – Present.
Russia-EU Relations Development and perspectives.
EU 3 rd Energy Package in the context of the tax problems of cross-border energy supplies REPORTER: KUROCHKIN DENIS ALEKSEEVICH EURASIAN RESEARCH CENTRE.
Economic Research in Lithuania Dr. Albertas Žalys Director Department of Science and Technology Ministry of Education and Science Forum of Economic Researchers,
© OECD/IEA 2010 Energy Policies of the Czech Republic 2010 In-depth Review Energy Policies of the Czech Republic 2010 In-depth Review Prague, 7 October.
THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH WORKS, STUDIES AND TRAINING IN REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT.
Part-financed by the European Union Management of the Baltic Sea as a common resource Bo Löwendal, Sweden Member of the BSR INTERREG IIIB Steering Committee.
Christopher Burleson Leslie Kay Ritchie Jitesh Sharma European Energy Restructuring: The Quest for a Competitive Single Energy Market.
Natural gas industry in Lithuania. Gas transmission and gas distribution companies in Lithuania. Gas consumption, gas consumers.
Presentation by Greta Monika Tuckute
1 National qualifications frameworks in Europe – developments and challenges Jens Bjornavold, Helsinki 17 June 2010.
The embassy of Lithuania in Finland Ambassador A. Jievaltas Lithuanian Energy Policy.
Directorate General for Energy and Transport Nina Grall Directorate General – Energy and Transport European Forum Gas 2007 – Paris Towards one.
1 Gas Regional Investment Plan North West Europe GRI Meeting, November 25 th 2011.
Updates on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP model, and Implications of a Regional Alternative Path for the Russian Far East Victor Kalashnikov Economic.
6, rue du Général Clergerie Paris – France Tel: +33-(0) Fax: ~ Michel COLOMBIER IDDRI Paris Impacts and Adaptation.
ENERGY SECURITY AND THE IMPORTANCE OF EU - RUSSIA ENERGY RELATIONS By Const. S. MANIATOPOULOS Chairman, Institute of Energy for S.E. Europe IENE, Athens,
Challenges for the electricity sector from a TSO perspective Zbyněk Boldiš Member of the Board ČEPS, a.s. ASD Annual Convention – Knowledge Café 24 April.
VUJE, a. s., Okružná 5, Trnava Strengthening the European Union Energy Security Prepared by Peter Líška (Slovak proposal) Brussels, 14th September.
Piemonte Workshop 1 11 September 2006 Paolo Salieri European Commission DG ENTR-H4 Security research in FP7.
GRIP South South Region Gas Regional Investment Plans SGRI – 30 th April 2013.
UPDATES ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN LITHUANIA Aistija Zubaviciute National Control Commission for Prices and Energy 3 April 2007, Riga.
Information and communicationDirectorate-General for Energy and Transport European Commission Security of Electricity Supply in the EU Stefan Gewaltig.
© World Energy Council 2014 Energy Security in Focus: from Local to Global The Baltic States as the testing ground for more balanced energy policy Einari.
IFIEC Europe International Federation of Industrial Energy Consumers 1 Promotion of Renewable Energies in the EU Member States Consequences on the Price.
INTERREG IIIC - REGENERGY Gefördert durch die Europäische Union Promoted by the European Union European District Heating and District Cooling Market Berlin/Leipzig,
1 South Gas Regional Initiative 16 th Dec 2011 South Gas Regional Initiative 16 th Dec 2011.
ENERGY SECURITY AND ENERGY UNION PERSPECTIVES FOR COUNTRY October/20/2015 CSF, Brussels BETTER RESEARCH, BETTER POLICY, BETTER REFORM
Long-term modeling of resilience and flexibility of European gas transportation system: integrated factors Dresden, April 3, 2009 Vitaly Protasov, Expert,
Energy Management and Planning MSJ0210 Energy planning Eduard Latõšov.
POWER SECTOR, ENERGY RELATED RESEARCH POTENTIAL in LITHUANIA by dr. Anzelmas Ba čauskas Lietuvos energija AB, Lithuania CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPEAN ENERGY.
E-notes European NGOs Observatory on Trafficking, Exploitation and Slavery Brussels, 20 October
Substantiative data on the Russian Energy Strategy 2030: expert views on the potential export of energy resources Vladimir Feygin, Vitaly Protasov Institute.
The 7th Framework Programme for Research: Strategy of international cooperation activities Robert Burmanjer Head of Unit, “International Scientific Cooperation.
Lithuanian Electricity Supply Assignment #3 to be announced February 17, due March 8 MS&E 290.
Workshop on Energy – Framework of the WS Moderator - Eugenijus Ušpuras, Lithuanian energy institute “The Baltic Sea Strategy – Region and Cohesion Policy.
Regional Storage Investment Artúr Böröcz Security of Supply Working Group GSE Regulatory Expert, E.ON Földgáz Storage Zrt. ENTSOG Workshop Bruxelles, 22.
Energy Security of Lithuania and Impact of Nord Stream Project dr.Tomas Janeliūnas The Institute of International Relations and Political Science.
Energy Meeting with the NGOs Taipei, 25 September 2013 Christian Kirchsteiger European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) EU Policy Context.
Ojārs Kehris Economist Association 2010 President Energy market and security of supply in the Baltics – Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia Reforming Infrastructure.
ASEM MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE on Energy Security Tensions and Opportunities of Energy Security in the Baltics Vytautas Naudužas 18 th of June, 2009 Brussels.
Power market structure and market price development in the SEE region
Crisis management related research at
Dr. Benoît ESNAULT (CRE) and Dr. Stefanie NEVELING (BNetzA)
Security challenges in the Balkans
EU – Russia Energy Relations: The legal and political framework
EU-RUSSIA ENERGY DIALOGUE,
SPA Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation & Risk Assessment (LERA) Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes Project reference.
Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP)
Energy Management and Planning MSJ0210
European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP)
EU – Russia Energy Relations: The legal and political framework
Presentation transcript:

Eugenijus Ušpuras Lithuanian Energy Institute Lithuanian Research Activities in Energy Security

Content 1. Energy security (research) institutions 2. Energy security research in Lithuania 3. Security of Energy Supply 4. Security of Energy Infrastructures

Energy security (research) institutions  Lithuanian Energy Institute (established in 1956)  Energy Security Research Centre – founded by Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) and Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) in 2008  NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, established on 10 July 2012 (previously – Energy Security Center under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania)  Other institutions

Energy security research in Lithuania (1)  Ignalina NPP. Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) (Risk analysis, Accidents analysis);  Lithuanian Energy Strategy (1999; 2002; 2005: 2007);  Special Studies (e.g. Ignalina NPP decommissioning impact to Lithuanian economic security after 2010).

Energy security research in Lithuania (2)  State funded research project Development of methodologies of Security and Reliability Assessment of Energy Supply to Lithuania ( ; ).  Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Energy Security Analysis and Integrated Security Level Assessment (2010 – 2011).

Energy security research in Lithuania (3)  Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Optimal Integration of Future Technologies into Energy Sector ( ).  Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Investigation of Lithuanian energy security and energy security level assessment ( ).

Energy security research in Lithuania (4)  7FP project Security of Energy Considering Its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications (SECURE) ( ). The project developed appropriate tools for evaluating the vulnerability of the EU to the different energy supply risks, and for promoting the optimization of EU energy insecurity mitigation strategies, including investment, demand side management and dialogue with producing countries.  SECURE partners from France, Italy, Denmark, Lithuania (LEI), JRC, Germany, Switzerland, Russian Federation, UK, Belgium, Austria.

Energy security research in Lithuania (5)  Leonardo da Vinci programme project European energy supply security management coordinators UNDER way towards STANDard indicators for continuous vocational education and training (UNDERSTAND) ( ).  UNDERSTAND is a pilot training project which is intended for the emergency planners and emergency operators of the European energy supply, transmission system operators (TSOs) in particular.  UNDERSTAND partners from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Lithuania (LEI), UK, Italy, Slovak Republic

 Energy security research we could divide into two branches:  Security of Energy Supply  Security of Energy Infrastructures

Security of Energy Supply

Assessment of Security of Energy Supply Different approaches are used for assessing security of energy supply in Lithuanian Energy Institute: economical modelling (MESSAGE model), disturbances impact to the energy system assessment employing probabilistic and deterministic models development of security indicators system for the assessment of energy security level.

Lithuanian electricity system model Lithuanian electricity system Lithuanian district heating system Poland, (ENTSO-E) Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Russia Sweden (Nordpool) Belarus, Russia (IPS/UPS) Kaliningrad (IPS/UPS)

Diagram of renewable energy sources flow

Economical modelling MESSAGE MODEL model is designed for planning energy sector in long perspective, where could be predictable technological process; optimization function is minimization of costs of energy system during the considered period. Using model it is possible to assess and compare different energy development strategies, alternatives of using different energy resources or new energy technologies. Applying sensitivity analysis it is possible to investigate the influence of particular indicators to functioning of energy system. Results: costs of energy production, then exits limitations of: primary energy resources, environment, policy.

Two parts of energy security Energy security analysis (ESA) Goal: Investigation of different energy threats, building disturbance scenarios, simulation of energy system reaction to disturbances, barriers and system resistance against different threats, assessment of possible consequences, identification of the worse situations and suggestion of mitigation measures. Assessment of energy security level Goal: Description of energy security indicators system, calculation of integrated characteristic – energy security level, comparison energy security levels for different countries or regions, different energy development scenarios, different energy policies.

Scheme of Energy security assessment methodology

Probabilistic Energy Security Analysis Threats Natural Economical Sociopolitical Terrorism Barriers Auxiliary systems Safety systems Physical protection Diversification Long term agreements Diplomacy Generators, power distribution and power supply networks, storages, suppliers, consumers. Energy system War conflicts Consequences mitigation Consequences Emergency plans Warning system Evacuation Deactivation First-aid Human lifes Damages of infrastructure Economical losses Sociopolitical disturbances Technological

Assessment of Energy Security Level Steps : Description of energy security indicators; Grouping of indicators to different blocks; Estimation of critical and precritical values of security indicators; Assessment of weights for indicators and blocks of indicators; Performance of sensitivity analysis of indicators in critical situations; Setting of indicators correlations matrix; Setting of functional systems and equations, which consists parameters energy security of supply; Calculation of energy security level.

Creation of a Security of Supply Index Export share of production External Suppliers Border crossings Reserves / consumption Country risk to border Replaceable share of gas Production share of consumption LNG terminals National storages Security of Supply Import pipelines Offshore pipelines risk Index allows for country specific characteristics Allows for assessment of SoS impact of new investments and policies Allows for analysis of scenarios SECURE - NATURAL GAS STAKEHOLDER MEETING Ramboll Oil & Gasas.com Stefan Schaar Kruse Senior Economist

Security of Supply in the EU – Risk and Impact Low impact –Low SoSHigh impact –Low SoS Low impact –High SoSHigh impact –High SoS Low SoS High SoS Swiden Finland Low impact High Impact

 Security of energy supply is assessed by analysing various energy system development scenarios  For example, just revising the last energy strategy more than 70 different development scenarios were analysed  All scenarios energy production price with various restrictions taking into account energy security were taken into account

Analysed energy system development scenarios Analysed scenarios were grouped in the following group:  Group of scenarios with various restrictions to the electricity import  Flexible non-nuclear scenarios without nuclear power plant  Scenarios with new nuclear power plant

Energy security level of analysed scenarios

 Economic analysis showed that scenarios with nuclear energy and restricted electricity import has slightly higher energy price  Assessing energy security as price increase and system resistance to possible perturbations, we can state that scenarios nuclear energy has higher energy security level

Security of Energy Infrastructures

 Two approaches are used:  Deterministic  Probabilistic

 The solution of the infrastructure security problem is consisting of two parts: 1. Identification of the critical elements of the infrastructure, the development of security plans. 2. The analysis and assessment of infrastructure criticality.

Scheme of energy infrastructure

Scheme of energy infrastructure (Lithuanian case)

Probabilistic Assessment of Critical Infrastructures Reliability and Security Assessment of Lithuanian Power Transmission System. Risk analysis of petrol transportation by trucks through Lithuanian roads

Probabilistic Assessment of Kaunas Hydropower System Kaunas hydropower plant (KHP) Kruonis hydro pump storage power plant (KHSP) KHP dam Flooding zone

Analysis of Aircraft Crash Structural response, Global level. Structural response, Semi-global level. Structural response, Local level. Fire analysis.

Global Analysis of Aircraft Crash

Concluding remarks  In Lithuania we have developed and approved methodology for energy security analysis  Energy security assessment is significant only when it is compared with other countries or regions. For that reason unified understanding of energy security and usage of the common methodology should be implemented  Methodologies developed in Lithuania could be a good starting point at least in Baltic States to introduce unified energy security assessment concept. That would enable to assess separate projects and entire situation.

Concluding remarks  Despite the fact that research in the field of energy security is performed in Lithuania, further collaboration and integration of efforts in this field should be accomplished in Baltic Sea region and entire Europe.

 Thank you for your attention  Eugenijus Ušpuras 