Employment: gauging the crisis and outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Prepared for The Jobs Deficit: The Challenge of Putting America.

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Presentation transcript:

Employment: gauging the crisis and outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Prepared for The Jobs Deficit: The Challenge of Putting America Back to Work New America Foundation Oct. 20, 2009

Worst recession by employment

Not the worst by GDP

Jobless claims suggest turning point Four week moving average

Signs of reviving demand for labor in construction, manufacturing Source: BLS, JP Morgan Chase Vacancy rate, %

USA now a high unemployment country Unemployment rate, %

Long term unemployment may lead to hysteresis Median duration of unemployment, weeks

Crises leave lasting damage Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Sept 2009 p 122

A smaller future GDP than we thought Source: CBO 2007 & 2009 Budget & Economic Outlooks

Finance, autos & housing share of total employment Source: Citigroup, July, 2009

Slower labor force growth Source: CBO Budget & Economic Outlook Aug, 2009

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