George W. Bush (43)

The 2000 Race Al Gore (D)Ralph Nader (G)

2000 Election 2000 election results

Florida votes Legal Documents

The Questions Is the country polarized? Are there red and blue states?

Red States 2016 (180 EV)

Blue States 2016 (215 EV)

Swing States (143 EV)

The Country by County

Explaining Polarization If the US electorate is really polarized… 1.Party Changes 2.Urban vs. Rural, plus College Towns 3.Regional a)Solid South 4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays” 5.Result of “winner-take-all” system 6.Gerrymandering

1. Party Changes Evolution of Parties since 1960s Homogenization of the parties Republican Party Conservatives and Moderates Democratic Party Conservatives and Liberals

2. Urban vs. Rural, plus College Towns Population Density Matters Red State by County: Alabama Blue State by County: Illinois

Purple States by County VirginiaPennsylvania

3. Regional: The South Switches

4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays” Which one of these looks like freedom?

5. Result of “winner-take-all” system Florida 2000: Red State? Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential Candidate Political Party Popular VoteElectoral Vote George W. BushRichard CheneyRepublican2,912, %25 Albert Gore Jr.Joseph LiebermanDemocratic2,912, %0 Ralph NaderWinona LaDukeGreen97, %0 Patrick BuchananEzola FosterReform17, %0 Harry BrowneArt OlivierLibertarian16, %0 Other (+)+--6, %0

6. Gerrymandering: Ugly, UglierUglyUglier Governor Elbridge Gerry (MA) From Boston Gazette, March 1812

Explaining Polarization If the electorate is not polarized… 1.Polarization is an election strategy a)Polarized elites b)The use of fear 2.Low Turnout a)only the most ideological vote 3.Purple States: swing voters 4.Independents: alienated voters

1. Polarization as an Election Strategy 1996 Gopac Memo 1996 Gopac Memo from Newt Gingrich

2. Voter Turnout only the most ideological vote PresidentialMidterm PrimariesPrimaries % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Voter Turnout

3. Purple States: swing voters (143 EV)

4. Independents: alienated votersIndependents The center doesn’t vote? But the left and right do?

Bush Background Senator Prescott BushPres. GHW Bush (with Ike)

His Administration Foreign Affairs advisers: Bush II Domestic Policy advisers: W I Policies: Reagan III But: “Compassionate Conservatism” No Child Left Behind

Post-Modern Presidency? : Pre-Modern : Modern or Crisis Presidency 1989: End of the Crisis Presidency Post-Modern? –Bush-Clinton-Bush –Weak executive –Madisonian model –“Governor of the USA”

World Trade Center, NYC

Pentagon

Post-September 11 New Crisis Presidency Return to Modern Presidency Bush Address to Congress 9/20/01

Unitary Executive Theory Executive Power National Security Theme in Republican Presidencies –Nixon - Impoundment –Nixon - Watergate –Reagan – Iran-Contra

Bush and Presidential Power 1.Office of Homeland Security vs. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)(DHS) 2.Asking for Authority 1.AUMF 9/18/01 (Authorization to Use Military Force)AUMF 2.Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iraq Resolution of 2002, 9/16/02Iraq Resolution of Surveillance 4.Detainees

5. Signing StatementsSigning Statements Standard US Governmental Process Congress introduces bill negotiation beginsExec-Leg Bill becomes agreementlaw Pres Introduces billExec-Leg disagreement Congress passes bill Pres vetoes Congress overrides

Standard Process with Signing Statement P. implements his version Congress of law introduces billExec-Leg negotiationagreement Bill becomes beginslaw Pres Introduces billExec-Leg disagreement Pres. signs bill anyway; Adds interpretation in signing statement

The Language in the Bush 43 Signing Statements “The executive branch shall construe {reference to the bill} in a manner consistent with the constitutional authority of the President to supervise the unitary executive branch.”

Executive Orders By President Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation 9/22/62Emancipation Proclamation FDR’s Orders 1937Orders 1937 Carter creates FEMA 7/20/79FEMA Bush creates HSC and OHS 10/8/01HSC and OHS Bush Military Order on Unlawful Enemy Combatants 11/13/01Military Order Obama Executive Order on Immigration 11/20/14Immigration

The Current Battle House Lawsuit against Obama Actions on Affordable Care Act The Resolution Authorizing the LawsuitResolution New York Times Wall Street Journal

Bush 43: The Slide Iraq Hurricane Katrina The Great Recession

Hurricane Katrina

US public opinion turns against the war Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, , March 2007: public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq

The Great Recession

Bush Public Approval