Provisional Protocol and Research Plan: Non-Residential Lighting Retrofits Nonresidential Lighting Subcommittee November 6, 2014

The saga continues... Started March, 2012 Significant work on protocol in subcommittee Brought before the RTF several times – Working through provisional protocols at the time – Never complete with regards to clear research needs and adherence to Guidelines January 16, 2013 – Sent back for major revisions September 2014 – Sent back to better coordinate with ongoing and planned research 2

Since September… Met with R&E subcommittee – Identified two possible paths HOO-interview path (presented at September meeting) HOU-interview path (consistent with ongoing BPA research) – R&E subcommittee supports HOU path RTF CAT has revised HOU interview Guide and Protocol to reflect HOU path (still working through Research Plan revisions) Pending sign-off from the lighting subcommittee, CAT and Staff plan to recommend the HOU path. 3

Why all this effort? 42% 20% Source: BPA Regional end-use achievement data 4

Outline for today Review key terms and protocol application Describe and compare HOO and HOU paths, choose direction Outstanding items for HOU path (assuming that’s the direction) 5

The Measure 6

Key Definitions (1) Hours of Use (HOU). Burn time. Hours that a lighting system is on. – Full-power-equivalent hours; partial-power periods contribute partial hours. Hours of Occupation (HOO). Hours that the space served by a lighting system is occupied. Space-use Type (SUT). Each space is associated with a building type and a space-use type within the building. – Example: Private offices, conference rooms, hallways, and stairwells within an office building. – SUT is linked to code LPA nomenclature when possible 7

Key Definitions (2) Lighting System. Set of fixtures in a space type that are associated with a single control type. – Many fixtures can be considered a single lighting system if they have the same control type and serve the same space type. – Discretion: Define one system or several separate systems? Example 1: Multiple occupancy sensors in single open office. Example 2: Multiple private offices in an office suite. Project. All modifications to lighting systems included in a single protocol application Lighting Calculator. Estimates kWh consumption, savings. – Generates kWh estimate for each base-case system and efficient-case system in a project. – Existing-conditions baseline: Savings is difference in consumption between base case and efficient case. 8

Measure Application Non-Residential Lighting Retrofits Lots of different building types and space-uses within buildings Measures include lamp/fixture changes as well as controls Example 1: Covert T8  T4 in an office space Example 2: Covert T8  T4 and install motion sensors in an office space Protocol must account for savings due to controls. 9

HOO Path (September proposal) 10

HOO Path: Simplified method Structured HOO Interview to estimate Hours of Occupancy for each Space – HOO usually unchanged pre- and post-project – Pre- and post- HOU estimates based on HOO and controls savings fraction (CSF) Example: Change open office lighting controls from manual on/off switch to photocell dimmer – Base case: HOU BASE = HOO x 1 – Efficient case: HOU EFF = HOO x (1 – CSF) – HOU change: ∆HOU = HOO x CSF Savings due to controls very closely tied to CSF parameter(s) 11

HOO Path: Provisional research Provisional research needed to estimate CSF value(s) Basic research question: How does HOO relate to HOU? How does the relationship change when we go from uncontrolled systems to systems with automated controls? – Hard to research without pre- and post- meter data. – Answer probably differs by space use and automated control type (CSF not expected to generalize well) Implications: Large sample size, pre- and post- meter data required, limited applicability. 12

HOO Path leads to… Implications for provisional research: – Large sample size, – Pre- and post- meter data required. Implications for simplified method: – Limited applicability (CSF doesn’t generalize well) – ∆HOO usually zero, so usually don’t need separate pre- and post-retrofit HOO Interviews. – ∆HOU directly tied to CSF, not tied to ∆HOO. Not much risk of gaming via fudged HOO estimates No need to restrict incentive structures to avoid conflicts of interest. 13

HOU Path (Current proposal) 14

HOU Path: Simplified method Structured HOU Interview to obtain stated Hours of Use for each Lighting System – Need separate pre- / post- interviews if controls change Actual pre- and post- HOU based on stated pre- and post- HOU and (probably) adjustment factor(s) Example: Change open office lighting controls from manual on/off switch to photocell dimmer. – Base case: HOU BASE, FINAL = C 1 x HOU BASE, STATED – Efficient case: HOU EFF, FINAL = C 2 x HOU EFF, STATED Savings due to controls closely tied to pre-/post- changes in stated HOU. 15

HOU Path: Provisional Research Provisional research needed to estimate adjustment factors that relate stated HOU to actual HOU Basic research question: How good are people at estimating HOU in this or that situation? – Doesn’t critically depend on whether the question is being asked pre- or post-retrofit. – Answer probably does generalizes across some (but not all) space uses and control types. Implications: Moderate sample size, pre- and post- meter data not essential, less limited applicability. 16

HOU Path leads to… Implications for provisional research: – Moderate sample size, – Pre- and post- meter data not essential, – Still need to fill in some blanks (targeted research around this or that question) Implications for simplified method: – More flexible applicability (probably generalizes OK) – Stated HOU changes if controls change; separate pre- and post- HOU Interviews are often required – ∆HOU directly tied to changes in stated HOU High risk of gaming via cooked-up stated HOU Probably do need to restrict incentive structures to avoid conflicts of interest. 17

Direction Lighting Subcommittee head-nod: Does the group agree with R&E direction that HOU Path is preferred on balance? HOO path – Harder research questions – Easier simplified protocol HOU path – Easier research path – Harder simplified protocol – Still need to fill in some gaps (pending head nod) 18

Outstanding Issues (HOU Path) 19

Outstanding issues: Research Probably not sufficient to simply estimate an average adjustment factor. May need to test specific questions… Are typical differences between HOU STATED and HOU METERED similar for controlled and uncontrolled systems? Specific control types for targeted research? Stepped dimmers? Do we want to require some amount of Pre- and Post- metering? 20

Outstanding issues: Applicability HOU path has a good chance of generalizing. We may not need targeted research for all building- /space-/control-type combinations, but… Stated HOU estimates might be completely useless in some applications. – Should we eliminate some from eligibility in advance? – Should we flag some for targeted research? BTW, do we still need to eliminate systems with EMS controls? 21

Outstanding issue: CP Baseline How do we pull off the current-practice baseline calculations for obsolete equipment? Example: Base-Case System with manual controls and T-12 lamps; Efficient-Case System has occupancy sensor and LEDs. What is the CP-Baseline? A system with manual controls and T-8 lamps? A system with manual controls and fixture power calculated as a weighted average of T-8 and other standards- compliant options? A system with some kind of CP-weighted average controls and CP-weighted average fixtures? (yikes!) 22

Outstanding issue: Misc. Burned-out lamps in pre-case. What do we do about these? Alternative data collection. Someone noted that for some systems you can get pretty good HOU info from whole-building interval data if you have it. If we allow EMS systems in the protocol, should we write up this (or other) options in the research plan. 23