Chapter 5

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Public Opinion  Public opinion about the death penalty a good example of how opinions affect policymaking  Opinions about a given government policy can change over time, often dramatically  Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policies  If asked, citizens will give opinions about matters with which they have experience  Governments tend to respond to public opinion  The government sometimes does not do what people want 3

The Death Chamber 4

Taking the Public Pulse 5

Public Opinion and Models of Democracy  Opinion polling dates from the 1930s  Not a powerful research tool until computers invented in 1950s  Founders built public opinion into structure of government by allowing direct election of representatives to the House and apportioning representation there by population 6

Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone  Statistical theory of sampling holds that a sample of a population selected by chance is representative of that population  Three factors affect accuracy of sample:  Must be chosen randomly  Larger samples more accurate  Greater variation in population means greater chance for differences in ability to predict 7

Accurate Polling  Most national opinion polling organizations poll 1,500 individuals  Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of the time  Even this small margin of error can mean incorrect predictions in close elections  Polls can be wrong because of biased question wording or superficial responses  Look at current polls: 8

Public Opinion and Democracy  Majoritarian model of democracy holds government should do what a majority of the people want  Around 70% of Americans think majority opinion should have a great deal of influence on politicians  Pluralist model of democracy believes democracy requires free expression of opinions by minority groups  Public as a whole rarely demonstrates clear, consistent opinions 9

Public Opinion and Democracy  Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under majoritarian model  Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not always reflect public opinion  Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against majority opinion  Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent public opinion about public policies  Pluralist model sees public uninformed and ambivalent about specific issues 10

Gallup Poll Accuracy 11

Stop the Presses! Oops, Too Late…. 12

The Distribution of Public Opinion  To understand and act on public opinion, government must understand how it is distributed  Distribution of public opinion falls into three patterns:  Skewed  Bimodal  Normal 13

Figure 5.2 Three Distributions of Opinion 14

Distribution Models for Public Opinion  Description of public opinion results depends on mode, or most frequent response  Skewed distributions have most respondents with one opinion  Bimodal distributions have two answers chosen with about equal frequency  Normal distributions are bell-shaped along a continuum, requiring a moderate approach to policymaking 15

Stability of the Distribution  Stable distributions have little change over time  When same question produces different responses over time, public opinion has shifted  When different questions on same issue produce similar results, underlying attitudes stable 16

Ideological Distributions  Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed towards conservatism  Since 1992, slightly more conservatives and fewer moderates  Changes in subgroups, such as college students, may not be reflected in general population  Opinions about controversial issues can change dramatically over time 17

Figure 5.3 Are Students More Conservative Than Their Parents? 18

Political Socialization  Values acquired through political socialization  Most people exposed to same sources of influence, or agents of socialization  Family  School  Community  Peers  The media 19

The Agents of Early Socialization  Fundamental principles of early learning:  The primacy principle  The structuring principle  The extent of any socializing agent depends on our exposure to it, communication with it, and receptivity to it 20

Family and School  Important agent of socialization, because most people learn first from family  Learn wide range of values  If parents interested, learn to be politically interested and informed  If both parents identify with one political party, kids tend to also identify with it  Religion stronger socialization than party because of regular activities 21

School  Some believe schools have equal or greater influence on political learning as parents  Elementary schools teach kids about nation’s slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior, and democratic decision making  In high school, kids learn to distinguish between political leaders and political institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and an awareness of the political process  College courses may teach students to question dominant political values and stimulate critical thinking 22

Community and Peers  Community makeup determines how political opinions of members formed  Homogeneous communities exert strong pressures to conform  Peer groups sometimes can provide defense against community pressures  Adolescent and college peer groups against parental opinion 23

Bearing Global Warming 24

Continuing Socialization  Political socialization a lifelong process  Adults rely more on peer groups and the media for political information  Adults gain perspective on government as they grow older 25

Word of God? 26

Social Groups and Political Values  Each person’s political socialization unique  However, people with similar backgrounds tend to have similar political opinions  Questions from the 2008 National Election Study (ANES) about abortion and the government guaranteeing employment good illustration  Check out your views: 27

Figure 5.4 How Groups Differ on Two Questions of Order and Equality 28

Education  Education increases awareness and understanding of political issues  With regard to abortion, college-educated individuals tend to choose personal freedom over social order  With regard to government programs to reduce income inequality, those with more education tend to choose personal freedom over equality 29

Income  Most Americans consider themselves to be “middle class”  Wealth linked to opinions favoring a limited government role in promoting equality, somewhat less with order  Groups with more income and higher education value freedom 30

Region  Historically, regional differences in political opinion important  Fed by differences in wealth  Today, those in the South and Northwest more likely to favor restricting abortion  Those in the Northeast and West more supportive of government programs for income equalization 31

Race and Ethnicity  Historically, those of different races and ethnicities have tended to differ in their political values  Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s tended to favor Democratic party  African-Americans initially Republican, but later Democratic  Today, minorities tend to have similar attitudes on equality issues 32

Religion  Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable since 1940s  Today, population 56% Protestant, 22% Catholic, 13% profess no religion, and less than 2% Jewish (among 9% “other”)  Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes about social order  Look at attitudes about abortion, death penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research, human cloning, and the teaching of evolution or creationism 33

Gender  Men and women differ on many social and political issues  Look at abortion, affirmative action, government spending on social programs, death penalty, and going to war  “Gender gap” means women tend to favor Democrats 34

35 Gender

The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion  Some believe terms liberal and conservative no longer adequate  However, political analysis requires categories  Most people don’t think of themselves in ideological terms 36

The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion  Differences in liberals and conservatives used to be based on opinions about the role of government  Today, liberals associated with change and conservatives with tradition  Liberals more likely to trade freedom for equality  Conservatives more likely to trade freedom for order 37

Ideological Types in The U.S.  People’s preferences for government action depend on what the action targets  Poll respondents do not always categorize themselves the same way their responses do  Ideological tendencies reflect differences between different social groups 38

Figure 5.5 Respondents Classified by Ideological Tendencies 39

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Forming Political Opinions  Studies show at least half of Americans knowledgeable about government and politics  Some groups much less knowledgeable  No ideological distinctions  Most people know if a policy will directly help or hurt them  Self-interest principle  Some use decision making “short cuts” 41

Political Leadership  Public opinion on specific issues affected by public perception of political leaders  Politicians make arguments based on shared ideology and self-interest  Issue framing or “spin”  Politicians’ ability to influence public opinion enhanced by growth of broadcast media 42