Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling Joint Operational Utility Joel M. Caplan Leslie W. Kennedy Eric L. Piza Rutgers, The State.

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Presentation transcript:

Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling Joint Operational Utility Joel M. Caplan Leslie W. Kennedy Eric L. Piza Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ

Joint Operational Utility ► Capitalize on unique strengths of each method Slide 2 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Data ► Violent crimes (aggravated assaults, homicides, robbery, shootings, and weapon possession) ► Provided by the NJ State Police through the Regional Operations Intelligence Center. ► 52 violent crime incidents from April to August 2007 ► 57 violent crime incidents from April to August Slide 3 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Joint Operational Utility Slide 4 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | ► Violent crimes occur at places with higher environmental risks  Especially if violent crimes already occurred there

Joint Operational Utility Slide 5 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Joint Operational Utility Summary: ► Violent crimes occur at places with high environmental risks ► If environmental risks aren’t mitigated, then crimes will continue at same places, creating hotspots ► Unpreventable instigator crimes will attract near repeats at places of higher environmental risk Slide 6 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Slide 7 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | Joint Operational Utility 1. Plot new crime incident

Slide 8 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | Joint Operational Utility 2. Isolate expected NR bandwidth area

3. Count high risk cells within bandwidth area (Use the “Near Repeat Opportunities” tool in the RTM Toolset for entire procedure) Slide 9 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | Joint Operational Utility 87 out of 237 cells = 37%

3-Part Integration for Crime Analysis and Forecasting Slide 10 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

3-Part Integration for Crime Analysis and Forecasting Slide 11 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

3-Part Integration for Crime Analysis and Forecasting Slide 12 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Slide 13 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | Tactical Deployment Decisions: From Product A Respond immediately to crime hotspots and high-risk places From Product B Limit length of time for targeted deployments From Product C Prioritize target areas

Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling Joint Operational Utility Joel M. Caplan Leslie W. Kennedy Eric L. Piza Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ