Some Thoughts on Our Possible Energy Futures (In Pictures) Maryland Clean Energy Summit 2013 Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting October 16, 2013

Public Policy Consulting

Credit: University of California, Riverside

Credit: C2ES.org

Credit: Energy Information Administration

Credit: Edison Electric Institute

Credit: Consumer Energy Solutions

Credit: Energy Information Administration

Credit: Citibank

Credit: World Nuclear Association

WECC (2032): Potential Bypass Threats from Distributed Generation are Large WECC-wide Behind-the-Meter DG: 19 GW of solar PV + 7 GW of CHP Distributed PV based on “interconnection potential” (no back-flow through feeders), with adjustments to reflect relative economics among states CHP additions represent a fixed percentage (~40%) of technical potential in each state Percent of 2032 Peak Demand Source: E3 (2013). Credit: Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Credit: Solar Energy Industries Association

MarylandColorado New JerseyGermany Arizona Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Credit: California ISO

Credit: Citibank

Renewable Electricity Futures Study (REF) Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures Available at NREL.gov Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Baseline Case Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

REF ITI Case Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

How does the assumption of an HREF affect the business model?  Much higher levels of variable generation at the bulk power scale  Greater penetration of distributed energy resources at the distribution scale  Greater need for flexibility in the grid components, operations, and architecture  Much higher levels of energy efficiency (sufficient to eliminate load growth) (affects utility organization, operations) (affects utility revenues, services) (affects utility investment, operations) (affects utility role, services)

Authors –Ron Binz –Richard Sedano –Denise Furey –Dan Mullen Available at

Credit: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The Last Word 111(d)

Thank You Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting