GCP International Project Office CSIRO Earth Observation Centre Canberra, Australia Prepared by Pep Canadell January 2004

Outline Rationale for the establishment of the GCP Brief History Mandate, Science and Implementation Portfolio of Activities Products

Rationale for the establishment of the GCP

1. Past and future atmospheric composition IPCC 2001, GCP ppm 180ppm

IPCC Global and annual mean radiative forcing >60%

3. Multiplicity of research disciplines Biological sequestration Geological sequestration Energy systems Institutions Biophysical system Management system Canadell et al. 2000

4. National and regional research LBA CarboEurope China Australia North America Carbon Plan Siberia Jp SA NZ Canada

International Geophere- Biosphere Program IHDP WCRP Diversitas Water Food Global Carbon Project Joint Projects on Global Sustainability Earth System Science Partnership World Climate Research Program International Human Dimensions Program IGBP

Brief History

1997 GCTE (Hal Mooney and Pep Canadell) convene a meeting in Palo Alto, California, to discuss the integration of process level studies, inverse CO 2 concentrations approaches, biogeochemical modeling, and flux and remote sensing data for C cycle studies. They recognize the existence of a programmatic gap IGBP (Berrien Moore and Will Steffen) recognize the need for an IGBP-wide integration effort on the carbon cycle outside of GAIM IGBP convenes the first IGBP-wide meeting in Isle-sur-la-Sorge, France Jil Jäger, IHDP executive director, challenge IGBP to make more concrete the collaboration with IGBP and the C cycle is chosen as the first challenge IHDP and IGBP organize a meeting in Oslo with Oran Young, Arid Underdal, Will Steffen and others to address the challenge. Brief History - 1

2000 Interest on Earth system science is on the rise and becomes clear that WCRP brings another fundamental piece of the carbon-climate- human system that we want to study and manage. The concept of the triple sponsorship for the C project is now a reality The GCP is presented at the IGBP-IHDP-WCRP Open Science Conference in Amsterdam. Right after, the project is approved by the Chairs and Directors, and the first SSC is assembled. The idea to institutionalize the partnership among the 4 major global environmental change programmes (IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, Diversitas) result in the creation of the Earth System Science Partnership which becomes the official sponsor of the GCP The GCP develops a science framework and implementation building upon a number of meetings: Isle-sur-la-Sorge- 1998, Stockholm-1999, Lisbon-2000, Paris-2000, New Hampshire-2000, San Francisco-2001, Tsukuba-2002, Tsukuba The GCP Science Framework and Implementation is published. Brief History - 2

Mandate, Science, and Implementation

Objectives To develop comprehensive, policy- relevant understanding of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and their interactions.

Mandate 1. Providing international coordination (gaps, duplications, recommendations) 2. Leveraging resources among countries 3. Increasing comparability and standardization among national progr. 4. Adding the global connectivity and constraints to national and regional programmes 7. Leading a highly interdisciplinary research agenda on the CC 5. Providing capacity building opportunities 6. Working with FCCC and other Conventions as a Research Non Governmental Organization

Observations IGOS-P (IGCO) Research GCP Links to other C international efforts Assessment IPCC

What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks? Science Themes What are the control and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non- anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle? What are the likely dynamics of the carbon- climate system into the future and what points of intervention and window exist for human societies to manage this system? [aCO 2 ]Land use Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3

1. Patterns and Variability 1.1. Enhancing Observations Coordination & Standardization 1.2. Model-Data Fusion Model-data fusion techniques 1.3 Carbon Budgets Methodologies, Sector Analyses 2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks 2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechanisms Multiple mechanisms and interactions 2.2. Emergent Properties C-Climate Paleo and Forward 2.3. Emergent Properties C-C-Hum. New modeling approaches 3. Future & C Management 3.1. Mitigation Options Control points land, ocean, FF 3.2. C Management & Sustainabil. Portfolios and sustainable develop Regional/Urban Development C consequences and Management GCP Implementation Plan

The Conceptual Framework Disturbances Ecosystem Physiology Atmospheric Carbon Terrestrial Carbon Ocean/Coastal Carbon Biological Pump Climate Change and Variabil. Solubility Pump Unperturbed C Cycle Perturbed C Cycle Land Use Systems Industry Transport Systems Ocean-use Systems Fossil Carbon Perceptions of human welfare Changes in institutions & technol. Human Response

International Project and Affiliate Offices CSIRO,Canberra Australia NIES,Tsukuba Japan (April 2004) USA Beijing, China Affiliate Off. Proposed only CarboEurope, Germany GHG CA, Italy IOC/SCOR-CO 2 Panel Paris, France Affiliate Off. Inter.Proj.Off.

Co-Chairs: Michael Raupach, Australia Robert Dickinson, USA Oran Young, USA Executive Directors: Pep Canadell, Australia Penelope Canan, Japan (starting April 2004) Affiliated Offices: EU-CarboEurope: Annette Freibauer, Germany SCOR-IOC Panel on Ocean CO 2 : Maria Hood, France Michael Apps, Canada Alain Chedin, France Cheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China, Taipei Peter Cox, UK Ellen Druffel, USA Christopher Field, USA Patricia Romero Lankao, Mexico Louis Philipe Lebel, Thailand Annan Partwardhan, India Monika Rhein, Germany Christopher Sabine, USA Riccardo Valentini, Italy Yoshiki Yamagata, Japan Scientific Steering Committee

Portfolio of Activities A few examples

Portfolio of Activities: Overview Annual SSC Meeting Publication Science Framework Terrestrial Sinks Wk Research Institute Data Assimilation State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk Ocean Coordination Wk 2004 Regional T. C Budgets Confer. Coupling Humans-Biogeochem. Data Assimilation: Data Wk Urban Dev.-Carbon Institute CoP9-Synthesis Book Land Use-Carbon SI

IOCCP - [with the IOC-SCOR CO 2 Panel] International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project January 2003, Paris, France International Workshop on Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities. Contact: Maria Hood, Chris Sabine International Workshop on Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities March 2003, Hazaki Town,Ibaraki, Japan International pCO 2 sensor intercomparison experiment. Contact: Y.Nojiri January 2004, Tsukuba, Japan Workshop on Ocean Surface pCO 2, Data Integration and Database Development. Contact:Y.Nojiri Workshop on Ocean Surface pCO 2, Data Integration and Database Development Repeated SectionsVolunteer Observing Ships Synthesize large-scale ocean carbon observation activities and plans. Integration of large-scale carbon studies into international research programs Promote acceptance of standardized measurement techniques Improved accessibility to international carbon data sets

Model-Data Fusion Research Institutes (2 weeks long) and focused workshops Research, Tool development, Capacity Building 1.Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [Colorado2002] 2.Terrestrial Model-Data Fusion [Sheffield 2003] w/GTOS 3.Synthesis processes intercomparsion [Australia 2004] 4.Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2005] 5.Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2006]

Integrated Terrestrial C Sink Mechanisms Carbon Storage in the Biosphere aCO 2 concentrationTemperature Land use Fire SuppressionNitrogen deposition Warm ecosystems Cold ecosystems Soil respiration CO 2 fertilization N fertilization Fire Forest conversion Plant growth x x x x With IPCC GCP 2003

Toward CO 2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity Book Presentation: COP9-Milan, Dec03 Publication: February 2004 Integrated Synthesis 1. current status and past trends of the carbon cycle; 2. vulnerabilities in the carbon cycle in the 21 st Century; 3. scenarios, targets, gaps and costs 4. a portfolio of carbon management options; 5. CO 2 stabilization pathways and sustainable Earth System Topics :

Vulnerability of carbon pools in the earth system Grubber et al (from SCOPE-GCP rapid assessment) Compile a catalogue of vulnerable C pools and their global distribution. Quantify the extent of these vulnerable pools and their C content. Assess the processes affecting the balance and release of C (incl. “thresholds) Analyze the impacts of C release from vulnerable pools on a[CO 2 ] and climate NCEAS proposal 2004, submitted

C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and the Global Carbon Cycle START-Packard Foundation NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 4 – 22 August 2003 Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities Establishing a network of regional case studies Asia Pacific (funded) Central-South America (funded) Source: Diane Pataki

Workshop Series (2004 – 2007): Coupling the human dimensions to the climate-carbon system In preparation Title: Coupling biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle. Goal : To identify and develop key methods, models, process knowledge and interactions necessary to treat the global carbon cycle as a coupled carbon-climate-human system. Topics: Dynamical-system and game-theory approaches. Models of Intermediate Complexity Integrative Assessment Models Institutional dimensions Technological opportunities and constraints Conceptual Frameworks Scenarios-based approaches

Products

Synthesis Products Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P (eds.) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change. Special Issue (in press) Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P (eds.) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change. Special Issue (in press) Field C, Raupach M (eds.) (2004) The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate and the Natural World. Island Press, Washington D.C. (in press) Field C, Raupach M (eds.) (2004) The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate and the Natural World. Island Press, Washington D.C. (in press) Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds.) (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds.) (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation. Canadell J, Dickinson R, Hibbart K, Young O, Raupach M (eds.). ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1, Canberra, p.69 GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation. Canadell J, Dickinson R, Hibbart K, Young O, Raupach M (eds.). ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1, Canberra, p.69

All publications Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann M (2003) Quantifying terrestrial carbon sinks. Special issue in Climatic Change (in preparation)Quantifying terrestrial carbon sinks Field C, Raupach M, editors (2003) Towards CO 2 stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences, Field C, Raupach M (Eds.). Island Press, Washington D.C. (in press)Towards CO 2 stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences Global Carbon Project (2003). The GCP Science framework and Implementation. Canadell JG, Dickson R, Raupach M, Young O (Eds). Earth Science System, Partnership (ESS) Report Series No.1, GCP Report Series No 1, Canberra, pp. 69The GCP Science framework and Implementation Sabine C, Hood M (2003) Ocean carbon scientists organize to acheive better coordination, cooperation. EOS 84: Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I, editors (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Hibbard K, Steffen W, Benedict S, Busalachi T, Canadell J, Dickinson R, Raupach M, Smith B, Tilbrook B, Velling P, Young O (2001) The carbon challenge. An IGBP-IHDP-WCRP project. Stockholm.The carbon challenge Pre-project products Schimel DS, House JI, Hibbard KA, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Peylin P, Braswell BH, Apps MA, Baker D, Bondeau A, Canadell J, Churkina G, Cramer W, Denning AS, Field CB, Friedlingstein P, Goodale C, Heimann M, Houghton RA, Melillo JM, Moore III B, Murdiyarso D, Noble I, Pacala SW, Prentice IC, Raupach MR, Rayner PJ, Scholes RJ, Steffen WL, Wirth C (2001) Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Nature 414: Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems Gupta J, Lebel L, Velling P, Young O, IHDP Secretariat (2001) IHDP Global Carbon cycle research. Bonn, IHDP. Falkowski P, RJ Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, S. Linder, F.T. Mackenzie, B. Moore III, T. Pederson, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Smetacek, W. Steffen [The IGBP Carbon Working Group] (2000) The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of our Knowledge of Earth as a System. Science 290: The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of our Knowledge of Earth as a System Canadell J.G, Mooney H.A., Baldocchi D.D., Berry J.A., Ehleringer J.R., Field C.B., Gower S.T., Hollinger D.Y., Hunt J.E., Jackson R.B., Running S.W., Shaver G.R., Steffen W., Trumbore S.E., Valentini R., Bond B.Y. (2000). Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: a multi-technique approach for improved understanding. Ecosystems 3: Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: a multi-technique approach for improved understanding Steffen, W, Noble, I, Canadell, J, Apps, M, Schulze, E-D, Jarvis, PG, Baldocchi, D, Ciais, P, Cramer, W, Ehleringer, J, Farquhar, G, Field, CB, Ghazi, A, Gifford, R, Heimann, M, Houghton, R, Kabat, P, Körner, C, Lambin, E, Linder, S, Mooney, HA, Murdiyarso, D, Post, WM, Prentice, IC, Raupach, MR, Schimel, DS, Shvidenko, A and Valentini, R (1998) The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto protocol. Science 280: