RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 1 Michel den Elzen, Paul Lucas and Marcel Berk National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2 4To explore and evaluate the environmental and abatement costs implications of possible future international climate policy regimes for differentiation of mitigation commitments 4The model is not made to promote any particular regime, but to allow for comparing regimes in consistent and transparent way 4NB: 3Developed to support long-term policy development, but also used for analysing near-term policy issues 3Developed to support Dutch climate policy, but used / available for other Parties as well. Objective FAIR 2.0

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 3 4Contents: 3links differentiation of commitments to adequacy of commitments 3based on established science (IPCC) 3includes many proposed regimes options 3includes emission trading and costs 4Form: 3PC computer model 3geographical user interface 3relatively simple to use 3Interactive Features of FAIR

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 4 Some proposals for climate change regimes 3Brazilian Proposal (Brazil / RIVM)* 3Multi-criteria (CICERO) 3Multi-stage (RIVM)* 3Contraction & Convergence (Global Commons Institute)* 3Global Compromise (Benito Müller)* 3Multi-Sector Convergence (ECN/Cicero) 3(global) Triptych approach (UU)* 3Technological convergence (Tol) 3(Convergence in) Emission-Intensities (targets)* 3Growth cap index (Ellerman, M IT) 3Jacoby rule (ability to pay) (MIT)* 3Soft landing (IEPE) 3Sectoral commitments / sectoral CDM 3SD-PAMs (University of Cape Town) * Green = included in FAIR 2.0

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 5 4Strategy: different models for different target groups 4General Public: web model version: 3 aims: orientation on the issue / education / capacity building 3 conditions: for free; no commercial use; no technical support; no publications without consent RIVM 3Policy Advisors: full model version (no access to code) 3 aim: support other Parties in policy analysis 3 conditions: on a case by case basis; licence agreement; limited support; no commercial use; no publication without consent RIVM 3Research institutes: full model (access to code) 3 aim: co-development of the model; scientific analysis / publications 3 conditions: selected network partner; collaboration agreement; contribution to development of model; no commercial use FAIR model versions

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 6 Global emission profile Regional emissions targets Regional GHG emissions after trade Climate assessment model Per capita Convergence Multi-stage approach emission intensity system CLIMATE MODEL Global emission profile Abatement costs & permit price DATASETS EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL Mitigation costs & Emissions trade EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL Historical emissions Brazilian Proposal Triptych approach Baseline scenario Emissions profile MACs FAIR 2.0 model Global emission reduction objective

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 7 Regions in FAIR 2.0

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 8 Datasets FAIR 2.0- internet version 4Historical emissions ( ): 3CDIAC (only CO 2 ) 3EDGAR/HYDE (all non-CO 2 GHGs) 4Baseline scenario 3IMAGE 2.2 IPCC SRES scenarios 3IMAGE-POLES scenario 4Emission profiles 3two global GHG emission profiles (550 CO2-eq and 650 CO2-eq.) 4Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves 3MACs CO 2 : energy model (TIMER IMAGE) 3MACs non-CO 2 : GECS (European Commission)

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 9 Global emission profile Regional emissions targets Regional GHG emissions after trade Climate assessment model Per capita Convergence Multi-stage approach emission intensity system CLIMATE MODEL Global emission profile Abatement costs & permit price DATASETS EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL Mitigation costs & Emissions trade EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL Historical emissions Brazilian Proposal Baseline scenario Emissions profile MACs Emissions allocation model of FAIR internet Global emission reduction objective

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 10 Climate regimes included in FAIR 2.0 3Brazilian proposal approach * 3Multi-Stage (RIVM) * 3Contraction & Convergence (GCI) * 3CSE convergence * 3Global Compromise (Muller) * 3Grandfathering * 3Multi-criteria convergence 3Jacoby rule (MIT) 3Emissions Intensity Targets approach * 3Triptych approach (Utrecht/NWS) * Included in FAIR internet version

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 11 Brazilian Proposal 4distribute emission reductions Annex I based on regional contribution to temperature increase due to their historical emissions (from 1890) 4Global application with participation threshold (per capita income levels, and/or per capita emissions) 4Our implementation => Brazilian Proposal approach Policy choices (in FAIR 2.0 internet version ): 4Participation threshold 4Time frames: 3start-date (1765, 1890, 1950, 1990)

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 12 Multi-Stage approach Multi-stage Approach (RIVM): a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules Berk and den Elzen (2001), Climate Policy Four stages (for non-Annex I): Stage 1. No constraint Stage 2. Intensity targets (threshold 1) Stage 3. Stabilisation emissions (threshold 2) Stage 4. Emission reduction targets (Annex I) Policy choices: 4Threshold options: per capita income, per capita emissions 4Stabilisation period 4Burden-sharing options: income, emissions, per capita emissions/income, etc.

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 13 Multi-Stage approach Gradual participation and different type of commitments 4Example for S550e: –threshold 1: 20% 90 Annex I per capita income –threshold 2: 50% 90 Annex I per capita income –5-year stabilisation emissions –contribution to reductions using burden-sharing key p.c. emissions

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 14 Global emission profile Regional emissions targets Regional GHG emissions after trade Climate assessment model Per capita Convergence Multi-stage approach emission intensity system CLIMATE MODEL Global emission profile Abatement costs & permit price DATASETS EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL Mitigation costs & Emissions trade EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL Historical emissions Brazilian Proposal Baseline scenario Emissions profile MACs Costs model of FAIR internet version Global emission reduction objective

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 15 Abatement costs model 4Function: 1.To calculate abatement costs (multi-gas) 2.To calculate the buyers and sellers on the international permit market 3.To distribute the global emission reduction objective over the different regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms.

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency on the basis of Marginal Abatement Cost curves (MAC): 6 GHGs, 11 sectors and 17 world regions; 4MAC curves only represent direct costs, there is no direct link to GDP losses 4Assumption is made of international emission trading: full trading in case regions participate; limited trading for non-participants (CDM) Methodology

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 17 Costs as % of GDP 550 CO2-eq vs. 650 CO2-eq. Example: 4S550e leads to much higher abatement costs than the S650e (equivalent to 0.4% versus 0.05% of world GDP in 2025) 4Costs are subject to considerable uncertainty (only baseline)

RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 18 Regional costs under C&C 2050 (S550e) 4Buyers and sellers on the market 3India, Africa and China sellers; Rest buyers 4Large differences costs 4Low-income non-Annex I regions gains for most regimes (up to 2%)