Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to keep stabilization in reach 18 October 2005 Niklas Höhne, ECOFYS Cologne, Germany

Quantifying future emission paths ECOFYS Energy and Environment European research and consulting company In total 250 employees in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy Example projects: –Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU emission trading system for the UK government –Work on future international climate commitments for, e.g., the German Environmental Agency and EU Commission –BASIC project: Capacity building on climate change negotiations with Brazil, China, India and South Africa

Quantifying future emission paths Future international action on climate change network Collecting information -Activities -Institutions -Ideas Discussion forum Funded by -German Federal Environmental Agency -EU Commissions DG Environment

Quantifying future emission paths Content 1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels 2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa 3. Conclusions

Quantifying future emission paths Time scales of stabilization Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

Quantifying future emission paths Possible temperature trajectories 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; 2000 to 2100, SRES projections Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001 EU climate target of 2°C above pre-industrial level

Quantifying future emission paths Source: IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001 EU climate target of 2°C Linking temperature to concentration Levels of CO 2 concentration Preindustrial: 280 ppm Current: 360 ppm

Quantifying future emission paths Stabilization pathways Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only 450ppm 550ppm 400ppm Reference

Quantifying future emission paths Content 1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels 2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa 3. Conclusions

Quantifying future emission paths Approaches Contraction and Convergence (C&C) Common but differentiated convergence Multistage Triptych

Quantifying future emission paths Contraction and Convergence Contraction: Definition of global emission path (e.g 450ppmv) Convergence: Per capita emissions of all countries converge by 2050

Quantifying future emission paths Common but differentiated convergence Three stages –No commitments –Positively binding emission targets –Convergence to an equal per capita level within e.g. 40 years as of entry Threshold for participation: –World average GHG/cap N. Höhne, M. den Elzen, M. Weiß Common but differentiated convergence (CDC) - A new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy submitted to climate policy

Quantifying future emission paths Multistage approach Participation in e.g. four stages: Countries graduate to a next step, if threshold is passed, e.g. emissions/cap No commitments Sustainable development policies and measures Moderate reduction Reduction

Quantifying future emission paths Industry Adjusted BAU production growth with efficiency improvement Electricity Adjusted BAU production growth with limit on sources DomesticConverging per-capita emissions Fossil fuel production Decline to low level AgriculturalPercentage reduction below BAU WasteConverging per-capita emissions Land use change and forestry Decline to zero (here excluded) Triptych National emission target

Quantifying future emission paths Stabilization pathways Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only 450ppm 550ppm +30% -25% 400ppm

Quantifying future emission paths Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990 No participation: South Asia and Africa, except South Africa Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally Planned Asia

Quantifying future emission paths Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990 Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions

Quantifying future emission paths Emissions per capita GDP/cap Source; Various sources including UNFCCC, IEA as reported in the EVOC model for the year 2000

Quantifying future emission paths Impact on South Africa 450 ppmv CO 2 case: Deviation from reference for all modelled approaches by 2020 Change from 1990 level in 2020 under the 450 ppmv CO 2 case

Quantifying future emission paths Effect of delay of action Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to to achieve the same environmental goal.

Quantifying future emission paths Conclusions EU target of 2°C above pre-industrial levels: below 450 ppmv CO 2 (average climate sensitivity) To keep 450 ppmv CO 2 within reach –Global emissions need to drop below 1990 levels within a few decades –Developed country emissions would need to be reduced substantially –Developing country emissions need to deviate from the reference as soon as possible, for some countries even as of 2020 (Latin America, Middle East, East Asia) Emissions per capita and GDP/cap of South Africa are above global average. Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to achieve the same environmental goal

Quantifying future emission paths Side event Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity 1. Introduction 2. Demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM Venue: Room Gallagher 3 Wednesday 19th October 10am – 12.30pm BASIC