South Africa Workshop October 2005 Looking to the Future – Challenges for Developing Countries Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho Visiting Professor Institute for Advanced Studies University of São Paulo BAS I C BASIC

The UNFCCC established a mandatory quantitative objective os stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at a level... BASI C

This implies that all countries are committed, collectively, to reach a situation where the net anthropogenic emissions (net means emissions minus removals), remain constant over time. BASI C

Given the dynamic equilibrium of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere, in practice we have to stabilize the stock of carbon in the atmosphere-biosphere system. BASI C

From this point of view, developing countries are those that, by 1990, had not yet reached their objectives in terms of providing energy, transportation, etc, to all of their population. BASI C

Even if the industrialized countries ceased all of their emissions today, the developing countries would have to limit their emissions BASI C

Regardless of the level at which the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is to be stabilized, it will be necessary to reduce its global emissions by about 60 percent, otherwise there is no stabilization. BASI C

The long-term challenge for developing countries is then to seek a future in which their emissions are limited. This is sustainability from the point of view of climate. The near-term challenge is to use the international agreements to facilitate the transition to that future. BASI C

If and when there will be another round of negotiations with a view to establishing a global regime of limited emissions, the Brazilian Proposal of 1997 could be adapted for that purpose. As originally written, it applies to industrialized countries only. In order to be used globally, would have to contemplate the alleviation of poverty. BASI C