WRI International Climate Policy Post-2012 Quantitative Tools and Negotiating Capacity A Review of WRIs Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) Beijing, China February, 2006 Jonathan Pershing Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute

WRI A web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by The World Resources Institute (WRI). CAIT includes: –Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus other data and indicators relevant to climate change policy –Data for 186 countries (most UNFCCC Parties) and regions –Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis) What is CAIT? WRI

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WRI What is CAIT? (2) Purposes –Promote greater access to information –Support decision-making processes and help build capacity –Provide common platform for data and analysis Policy neutral Available free to the public at

WRI Data providers –CDIAC –RIVM –IPCC –IEA –World Bank –UNDP –U.S. EPA –U.S. EIA –UNFCCC –Houghton Acknowledgements Funding providers U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation

WRI Working assumptions: –Information is the first step to solving any problem –Better information better decisions –Delivery system matters 1.CAIT 2.Navigating the Numbers report Data – Policy Linkage

WRI Who is Using CAIT? ~5000 total users from 108 countries, December 2003 to present

WRI CAIT Screens Using CAIT

WRI Rank by national emissions total

WRI Bottom of the ranking: 186 countries

WRI Rank by per Capita emissions

WRI Choice of gases

WRI Other indicators Analyses possible Customize Displays

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WRI Choosing Display Regions

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WRI Vulnerability and Adaptation

WRI Some CAIT Results

WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Implications

WRI Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth % Percent change from 2000

WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Implications

WRI Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing

WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Conclusions

WRI Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025

WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Conclusions

WRI Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

WRI Emissions per Capita: Consensus? GHG Emissions per Capita

WRI Fuel mix affects CO2 emissions Electric Power Sector

WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Conclusions

WRI GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

WRI Different forms of sectoral cooperation How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation –Promote participation –Avoid leakage –Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness) Options for international cooperation International Sectoral Cooperation

WRI Global trends are in the wrong direction Address GHGs in context of big emitting countries and sectors –Intl cooperation, investment, technology No single indicator tells a complete story Data does not point directly toward a solution –Nature and scale of problem –Diverse national circumstances Conclusions

WRI Using CAIT