WRI International Climate Policy Post-2012 Quantitative Tools and Negotiating Capacity A Review of WRIs Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) Beijing, China February, 2006 Jonathan Pershing Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute
WRI A web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by The World Resources Institute (WRI). CAIT includes: –Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus other data and indicators relevant to climate change policy –Data for 186 countries (most UNFCCC Parties) and regions –Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis) What is CAIT? WRI
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WRI What is CAIT? (2) Purposes –Promote greater access to information –Support decision-making processes and help build capacity –Provide common platform for data and analysis Policy neutral Available free to the public at
WRI Data providers –CDIAC –RIVM –IPCC –IEA –World Bank –UNDP –U.S. EPA –U.S. EIA –UNFCCC –Houghton Acknowledgements Funding providers U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation
WRI Working assumptions: –Information is the first step to solving any problem –Better information better decisions –Delivery system matters 1.CAIT 2.Navigating the Numbers report Data – Policy Linkage
WRI Who is Using CAIT? ~5000 total users from 108 countries, December 2003 to present
WRI CAIT Screens Using CAIT
WRI Rank by national emissions total
WRI Bottom of the ranking: 186 countries
WRI Rank by per Capita emissions
WRI Choice of gases
WRI Other indicators Analyses possible Customize Displays
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WRI Choosing Display Regions
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WRI Vulnerability and Adaptation
WRI Some CAIT Results
WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Implications
WRI Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth % Percent change from 2000
WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Implications
WRI Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing
WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Conclusions
WRI Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025
WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Conclusions
WRI Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods
WRI Emissions per Capita: Consensus? GHG Emissions per Capita
WRI Fuel mix affects CO2 emissions Electric Power Sector
WRI Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Conclusions
WRI GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
WRI Different forms of sectoral cooperation How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation –Promote participation –Avoid leakage –Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness) Options for international cooperation International Sectoral Cooperation
WRI Global trends are in the wrong direction Address GHGs in context of big emitting countries and sectors –Intl cooperation, investment, technology No single indicator tells a complete story Data does not point directly toward a solution –Nature and scale of problem –Diverse national circumstances Conclusions
WRI Using CAIT