Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change: strategies to enhance adaptive capacities International workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice to Policy May 2006, New Delhi

Review of studies on coping measures to extreme events DroughtsFloods RajasthanAssam KarnatakaUP APBihar GujaratOrissa Chattisgarh Single stress – climate change Climate variability and change Multiple stresses Scenario- based modelling Vulnerability indicators Community interaction CIDA agr APN agr/climate info OFDA floods/droughts WB agr/water APN agr/rice- wheat Natcom agr/wat/for/health Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal Natcom coastal/disasters Ford SLR APN glaciers WB agr

HadCM2 Country-level Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s Macro-scale modeling approaches highlight vulnerable regions

Climate change and economic changes in India: the impacts on agriculture Basic theme: –climate change does not occur in isolation –globalization can alter vulnerability patterns – DOUBLE EXPOSURE –agriculture most important sector for India Timeframe: February 2001 – March 2004 Funders: Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Norway Partners: TERI, CICERO, IISD, Rutgers University

Elements of vulnerability profiles Adaptive capacity Biophysical vulnerability Soil degradation and cover Groundwater availability Social vulnerability Agricultural workers and labourers Literacy Gender discrimination Child mortality and fertility Technological vulnerability Irrigation Infrastructure Globalization vulnerability Climate change vulnerability Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness) Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops) Village-level case studies – hh surveys + PRAs coping capacity of communities to current adverse conditions factors that enhance/constrain adaptive capacity of farmers

Jhalawar, Rajasthan drought prone low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure Chitradurga, Karnataka water scarcity proximity to city contract farming and exports Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh semi-arid response of groundnut farmers to import competition Jagatsingpur, Orissa cyclones, river floods high population density acute poverty proximity to port Raipur, Chattisgarh rice belt of central India crop diversification low literacy, infrastructure

Rainfed farming: Lakhakheri Umat Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks Landless labourers – seasonal migration Small/marginal farmers – temporary coping measures No long-term adaptive solutions Opportunities to diversify Mixed farming:Anghora Access to irrigation enhances coping options Much better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets)

Broad objectives Reviewing coping strategies being employed by communities in India and assessing issues and opportunities for adaptation »study focus on drought and flood affected regions »distinguish between reactive temporary mechanisms and measures for strengthening the adaptive capacities »links with developmental aspects will be explored Assessing the effectiveness with which coping measures are being employed and the factors influencing their implementation Identifying/ suggesting measures to enhance adaptive capacities »Incremental in nature than those currently being employed to cope during with such circumstances

Preliminary discussions and consultations Pennar in Andhra Pradesh, Mahanadi in Orissa, Godavari in Maharashtra Study regions

AP Vulnerability Index Focus: Chittoor and Anantapur 1991: Anantapur – very high vul & Chittoor – high vul 2001: Shift to high vul in Anantapur

Micro-scale, case study based approaches highlight who is more vulnerable and extent of vulnerability

Example of matrix: level 1 JhalawarChitradurgaRaipurJagatsingpur Irrigation Insurance Cropping pattern change Marketing network Migration Which coping options are used?

Example of matrix: level 2 IrrigationInsuranceCropping pattern change Marketing network Awareness of govt schemes Education Land holding size Community organisation (SHGs/PRIs/NGOs) Which factors influence the effectiveness of those coping options?

Adaptive capacity influenced by… Physical factors –cropping pattern, crop diversification / shift to resistant varieties or tolerant crops Socioeconomic factors –asset ownership – land, house, cattle, pumpsets, tractors, tillers, threshers –access to public goods & facilities – banking, education and health services –infrastructural support – irrigation, markets, proper communication network –alternative employment options

Coping Strategies Reactive Coping Change in cropping intensity Credits/ loans Shifting cattle and household Proactive Coping Diversification to non-vulnerable income sources (aquaculture, tolerant crop varieties….) House adaptation - platforms Insurance Access to Government programs

Case study in Orissa: Preferred interventions in terms of priority as suggested by villagers

Case study in Maharashtra Developments in the last 15 years –soil conservation initiatives introduced uphill by the village head »Includes digging trenches to control soil erosion and develop its fertility –most villagers not supportive of the fact initially –interest only in a very small group »Related to threat of water being utilised uphill further affecting its availability downhill –actual situation »High rates of run-off from the hillock surpassing the village, low recharge rates within the domain of that watershed Picture: World Bank Study S Bhadwal, 2005

A journey in the past –activities relating to construction & restoration of tanks taken up –process for building simultaneous large and small tanks for storage and recharge started –tanks located downhill one after the other in series Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005

Results to be seen..… –benefits in the form of reduced run-off, increased recharge rates, increase in water tables and recharge of open wells visible –community investments and other bilateral investments for soil conservation efforts and development of tanks started –situation today………of water tables lying at a depth of feet, its availability for irrigation purposes –checking outward migration –generation of other income generating opportunities –And more to list…….

Further developments Proper planning and execution of other plans/ programmes in the village Setting up of an NGO within the village with villagers as members »Various village development activities promoted including education and health centres besides the other development work »In some cases technical expertise sought from the government bodies, especially the rural development department Village regulates its own water usage in line with the crop plans »Villagers convinced not to grow sugarcane »Cropping patterns changed to onions, maize debarring sugarcane growth »Crops taken each year based on an annual revisit of the rainfall situation

Concluding Strong and purposive leadership in the village has brought about a transformation……..enhancing the resilience of communities in being able to cope even during drought years Examples can be quoted elsewhere in the country where such local level initiatives under strong leadership have been successful »Tarun Bhagat Sangh and »Initiatives by Shri Ana Hazare in Raley Gaon Sidhi Strong need to understand the processes behind and pose as testimonials

From practices to policy Varying degrees of vulnerability at the national, state, district, village and household level Policy formulation to recognise the differentials Also, learning's from community initiatives (eg., Maharashtra) and need for further successful government initiatives (eg., Maharashtra) to be adopted Conditions for replication at different levels needs to be critically analysed Synergise with different government policies for different purpose for better fortification of capacities (SGSY, Bharat Nirmaan, IWDP, DPAP etc….)

Thank you