Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Irreversibility in infrastructures of emerging countries Implication for climate

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Towards a sustainable urban development Developing countries will agree to limit their greenhouse gas emissions if synergies are found with their overriding concerns, such as development, poverty eradication and providing for basic needs. The challenge (and the opportunity) is to build societies in a world of high energy prices : the pattern of urban development, the infrastructure choices may affect their emission trends in the long run.

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Identify relevant mechanisms for the international cooperation They are windows of opportunities for the emerging countries to be on low-emission paths of development. The futur international regime must find the relevant mechanisms of cooperation with the emerging countries to act towards a sustainable urban development.

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Driving forces of GES emissions in a long run High inertia of infrastructures (Power station 30 years, Building 100 years) Coal will remain a key energy source for countries like China, India or South-Africa for a long time Efforts must focus on end-use energy sectors : transport system, building design, heating systems, etc. Climate friendly choices on infrastructures will keep the futur open, and preserve the possibility to integrate new technologies and alternative energy sources in energy supply when they will be available.

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing CO2 emissions up to 2030 OECD and DCs Source : AIE, World Energy Outlook 2004 Building sector = 37%, first sector in 2030

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing CO2 emissions in 2002 China and India

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Stakes for climate change of the residential sector in China The energy consumption of the residential sector could increase by 3 or 4 times up to 2020 according to the scenarios of the Energy Research Institute

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing The main reasons … Rapid growth of urban population Housing reform Improvements of living standards (needs of space heating, air conditioning, electrical appliances, etc.)

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Urbanization rates

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Urbanization and housing construction in China Evolution of the chinese populationAssumption of the housing stock increase Hypothesis : 36 sq.m per inhabitant in 2020 and same level of new constructions per year as today + 20 billions of square metres of which 13 billions in urban aera

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Institutional context Building codes have been set up since 1995 (cold region), but only less than 5% of the new urban buildings comply with these design codes of building energy conservation China Medium and Long term Energy conservation Plan (2005)

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing IDDRIs research project A description on the CO2 emission trends of the housing stock and the impacts of energy conservation measures : Elaborate a simple simulation tool (bottom-up approach) A detailed analysis of the institutional framework, the behavior of the actors (investors, developers, energy companies, etc.), the priorities of local decision-makers… Identify the public authorities levers of action

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Large-scale CDM or new mechanism ? This project aims to participate to the discussion on the implementation of large- scale CDM project activities (which are not able to demonstrate financial or investment additionality, or based on governmental policies) : towards a new cooperation mecanism in a post-kyoto regime.

Basic Project Meeting – 17-18/02/ Beijing Thank you !