Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity 17 February 2006 Niklas Höhne, Jonathan Pershing, BASI C

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post 2012 (30 min) 2. Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI (30 min by J. Pershing) 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys (30 min) 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM (30 min)

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Future international action on climate change network Collecting information -Activities -Institutions -Ideas Discussion forum Funded by -German Federal Environmental Agency -EU Commissions DG Environment

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Time scales of stabilization Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Possible temperature trajectories 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; 2000 to 2100, SRES projections Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001 EU climate target of 2°C above pre-industrial level

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Source: IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001 EU climate target Linking temperature to concentration Levels of CO 2 concentration Preindustrial: 280 ppm Current: 360 ppm

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Stabilization pathways Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only 450ppm 550ppm 400/350ppm Reference

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Approaches Contraction and Convergence (C&C) Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC) Multistage South North Dialogue – Equity in the Greenhouse Brazilian Proposal Sectoral approaches Triptych

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Contraction and Convergence Contraction: Agreement on a global emission pathway (e.g. towards 450ppmv) Convergence: Per capita emission converge until, e.g., 2050 Origin: Global Commons Institute CE.pdf

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Common but differentiated convergence (CDC) Three stages –No commitments –No-Lose targets –Convergence of per capita emission level to the same level in e.g. 40 years Participation threshold: –(time dependent) global average per capita emissions Höhne, den Elzen, Weiss: Common but differentiated convergence accepted at Climate Policy 2005

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Multistage approach Participation in e.g. four stages: Countries graduate to a next step, if threshold is passed, e.g. emissions/cap No commitments Sustainable development policies and measures Moderate reduction Reduction

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity South North Dialogue Quantitative commitment Qualitative commitment Financial support 1. Least developed countries -SD PAMS optional Receive payments 2. Other developing countries - SD PAMS obligatory, co-funded Receive payments 3. Rapidly industrializing developing countries Limitation if funding provided SD PAMS obligatory, co-funded Receive high payments 4. Newly industrialized countries LimitationSD PAMS obligatoryCo-funding 5. Annex I but not Annex II Absolute reduction - Low/no payments 6. Annex IIStrict absolute reduction -Make high payments Thresholds: CO 2 /GDP, GHG/cap, emission growth, cumulative emissions, GDP/cap, HDI; show members of the groups Adaptation commitment

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Brazilian Proposal Emission reductions by Annex I countries proportional to contribution to temperature increase Participation by Non-Annex I countries not defined The only proposal still discussed under the UNFCCC, but its implementation unclear

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Sectoral approaches Emission limits for particular sectors only Emission limits as a function of production (e.g. tCO 2 /tSteel) Common emission or energy efficiency standards on one sector globally

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Industry Adjusted BAU production growth with efficiency improvement Electricity Adjusted BAU production growth with limit on sources DomesticConverging per-capita emissions Fossil fuel production Decline to low level AgriculturalPercentage reduction below BAU WasteConverging per-capita emissions Land use change and forestry Decline to zero (here excluded) Triptych National emission target

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Overview of tools Country level historical data Emission allocation Mitigation costs CAITEVOCFAIR XXX(X) Contraction and Convergence (C&C) XX Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC) X(X) Multistage XX South North Dialogue – Equity in the greenhouse X(X) Brazilian Proposal X Sectoral approaches (X) Triptych X(X) X

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity EVOC Tool Input Historical emission data per country (hierarchy of emissions sources, all Kyoto gases, sectors) Energy, population, GDP data from IEA Future reference development (emissions, population, GDP) based on RIVM IMAGE implementation of the IPCC SRES scenarios Output Emissions or emission allowances under various proposals for future international climate policy after 2012 –Contraction and convergence –Common but differentiated convergence –Multistage –Triptych –Proposal by the South North Dialogue – Equity in the Greenhouse

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Delayed participation Common but differentiated convergence GHG/cap Time Threshold Contraction & Convergence GHG/cap Time IC DC LDC

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Results towards 550 ppmv CO 2 Towards 550 ppmv CO 2: Threshold: 30% above world average, Convergence level: 4.5 tCO 2 eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO 2 GHG per capita

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Results towards 550 ppmv CO 2 Towards 550 ppmv CO 2: Threshold: 30% above world average, Convergence level: 4.5 tCO 2 eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO 2 GHG emissions

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Results towards 450 ppmv CO 2 Towards 450 ppmv CO 2: Threshold: 10% below world average, Convergence level: 2.9 tCO 2 eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO 2 GHG per capita

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Results towards 450 ppmv CO 2 Towards 450 ppmv CO 2: Threshold: 10% below world average, Convergence level: 2.9 tCO 2 eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO 2 GHG emissions

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Multistage Four stage emission reduction agreement 1.No commitments 2.Sustainable development policies and measures 3.Moderate emission limitation targets 4.Absolute emission reduction targets (shared according to Triptych approach) Threshold: Emissions/cap, decreasing over time

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Towards 550 ppmv CO 2 Stage 3 Entry at 6-10 tCO 2 eq./cap 10%-15% below reference Stage 4 Entry at 9-12 tCO 2 eq./cap 1-5% reduction per year

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Time of entry towards 550 ppmv CO 2

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Towards 450 ppmv CO 2 Stage 3 Entry at tCO 2 eq./cap ~30% below reference Stage 4 Entry at tCO 2 eq./cap ~5% reduction per year

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Time of entry towards 450 ppmv CO 2

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Towards 400 ppmv CO 2 Stage 3 Entry at 3.5 tCO 2 eq./cap ~30% below reference Stage 4 Entry at 4 tCO 2 eq./cap ~8% reduction per year

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Time of entry towards 400 ppmv CO 2

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Stabilization pathways Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only 450ppm 550ppm 400/350ppm Reference

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Stabilization pathways Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only 450ppm 550ppm +30% -25% +50% +45% +10% -60% 400/350ppm

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990 No participation: South Asia and Africa. Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally planned Asia

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990 Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Backup slides

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Change 1990 to 2020 towards 550 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -5% to –25% below 1990 No participation: South Asia, Africa, Centrally Planned Asia or excess allowances under C&C or Triptych Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East and East Asia

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Change 1990 to 2050 towards 550 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -40% to -80% below 1990 Deviate from reference: Most Non-Annex I regions, except South Asia Triptych: more reductions for coal intensive countries under these parameters

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Stabilization pathways Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only 450ppm 550ppm +30% -25% +50% +45% +10% -60% 400/350ppm

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Stabilization pathways Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only 450ppm 550ppm +30% -25% +50% +45% +10% -60% 400/350ppm

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Change 1990 to 2020 towards 400 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -25% to -50% below 1990 No participation: only a very few countries Deviate from their reference: all Non-Annex I regions

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity Change 1990 to 2050 towards 400 ppm CO 2 Annex I: -80% to -90% below 1990 Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions