Global Warming: A Challenge for Green Trade Andrew J. Weaver School of Earth & Ocean Sciences University of Victoria Taipei, Taiwan June 13, 2012

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Globally-Averaged Surface Temperature since 1880 Surface temperature anomaly relative to the average

The Top 10 Warmest Years since 1880 Surface temperature anomaly relative to the average Upper ocean heat content from relative to the average Year Temperature Anomaly (°C) t h

5 Direct measurements of solar intensity

Solar forcing & the global mean surface temperature record “…over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.” Mike Lockwood Claus Fröhlich Lockwood, M., and C. Fröhlich, 2007: Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series A, 463, 2447–

Arctic Minimum September Sea Ice Extent September 16, 2007

Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage

Annual mean projections of future climate Average from many models (relative to years 1980–1999) 0.2°C/decade warming independent of emissions trajectory 1.8°C globally warmer 4.0°C globally warmer Intergenerational Equity

11 Hansen, Sato, Rueby (2012) Public perception of climate change and the new climate dice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, submitted. Percent >1 standard deviation ( σ ): 31.7%; Percent >2 σ: 4.6%; Percent >3σ: 0.27%; Percent >4σ: 0.006%; Percent >5σ: % Summer surface temperature anomalies relative to mean in units of the local detrended standard deviation

Precipitation 2080–2099 average of many models relative to 1980–

Smith, JB, SH Schneider, M Oppenheimer et al., 2009: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the IPCC "reasons for concern". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: /pnas °C Guardrail

3 °C further warming  50% of all nature reserves will no longer fulfill their conservation mandate Reasons for Concern 1)Response of natural ecosystems Working Group II of the IPCC 0.9 °C further warming 9%–31% of the world’s species become committed to extinction  1.5 °C further warming 15%–37% of the world’s species become committed to extinction  2.2 °C further warming 21%-52% of the world’s species become committed to extinction  3.3 °C further warming 40%-70% of the world’s species become committed to extinction 

Reasons for Concern 2)Global security and political instability 80% of cumulative past emissions come from the developed world But Impacts are distributed disproportionately to subtropical and hence developing world Developed nations have technological and economic ability to assist in adaptation But Developing nations have neither technological nor economic ability to adapt Environmental Refugees!

USA & Canada on the International Scene (2008 data) Per capita carbon emissions in metric tonnes Total carbon emissions in millions in metric tonnes #76 Sweden 1.45! Canada / 3.1 #57 Iceland 1.93 Canada / 2.3 #205 Ethiopia 0.02! Canada /223

Global population growth 80% of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from more developed nations  80% of the problem from 20% of the people

37CANADA33,212,696CANADA755 (51 st )CANADA755 (179 th ) 1China1,330,044,544India49,631Ukraine-820 2India1,147,995,904China22,920Japan-485 3USA303,824,640Pakistan9,464Bulgaria-162 4Indonesia237,512,352Bangladesh8,506Belarus-104 5Brazil196,342,592Nigeria8,114Germany-99 6Pakistan172,800,048Indonesia7,646Romania-83 7Bangladesh153,546,896USA7,350Hungary-69 8Nigeria146,255,312Ethiopia7,264Poland-47 9Russia140,702,096Brazil6,606Georgia-41 10Japan127,288,416Congo5,897Latvia-39 11Mexico109,955,400Philippines5,240Italy-30 12Philippines96,061,680Egypt3,766Lithuania-28 13Vietnam86,116,560Mexico3,440Trinidad &Tobago-26 14Ethiopia82,544,840Uganda3,096Czech Republic-23 15Egypt81,713,520Kenya2,868Estonia-23 16Germany82,369,552Afghanistan2,355Montenegro-17 17Turkey71,892,808Sudan2,351Swaziland-13 18Congo66,514,504Vietnam2,336Moldova-11 19Iran65,875,224Tanzania2,283Armenia-6 20Thailand65,493,296Yemen2,182Croatia-5 21France64,057,792Turkey1,995Slovenia-5 22United Kingdom60,943,912Iraq1,981Micronesia 23Italy58,145,320Colombia1,733Virgin Islands0 24South Africa48,782,756Nepal1,694Dominica0 25South Korea48,379,392Madagascar1,650Guernsey0 RankCountryPopulationCountryDaily GrowthCountryDaily Growth Global population growth 2004

Country Cumulative Emissions Cumulative Emissions/ Canada’s Emissions Population/ Canada’s Population United States China Russian Federation Germany United Kingdom Japan France India Canada Ukraine Poland Italy South Africa Australia Mexico Spain Kazakhstan Czech Rep Belgium Korea, Rep Brazil Netherlands Iran, Islamic Rep Romania Indonesia Saudi Arabia Cumulative emissions of CO 2 from (millions of tons of CO 2 )

Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Sources 2010: 1)Combustion of Fossil Fuels: Fossil Fuel + Oxygen = Carbon Dioxide + Water Vapour + Heat 3)Deforestation 2)Cement Production Limestone (CaCO 3 ) + Clay or SiO 2 heated to produce “clinker”  CO 2 Combustion of fossil fuels:8.7 Gigatonnes of carbon (10 9 kg C) Cement production:0.4 Gigatonnes of carbon (10 9 kg C) Cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2010: Fossil fuel combustion + Cement Productions: 365 Gigatonnes of carbon (10 9 kg C) Deforestation & land use emissions: 162 Gigatonnes of carbon (10 9 kg C) Today deforestation has contributed 1/3 of the problem Tomorrow reforestation can contribute 1/3 of the solution Land Use Change:0.9 Gigatonnes of carbon (10 9 kg C)