ECONOMIC COLLAPSE ALEJANDRES GANNON UC BERKELEY

INTERNAL LINKS What causes the economy to collapse matters for The manner in which it collapse The type of collapse Topic internal links US vs global economy Jobs Deficit spending/government debt Specific industries Technological development

WINNING THE IMPACT

Desperate times call for desperate measures, economic collapse incentivizes wars and aggression 1.Opportunistic wars 2.Preventative wars 3.Rally around the flag effect 4.Resource wars Strong economy means more trade and interdependence Less of an incentive to wage war when living conditions are fine

DEFEATING THE IMPACT Magnitude of the internal link – what causes the economy to collapse determines the style, extent, and response to collapse Historical examples of economic collapse Global vs relative collapse Resources and wars are expensive Countries turn inwards Recession causes integration Turn the impact

IMPACT TURN DEBATE

RELEVANT FACTORS FOR BOTH SIDES 1.Sustainability 2.Now vs later 3.Transition wars 4.Ecology/environment 5.Possibility of long-term conflict or peace

WINNING THE IMPACT TURN Key authors: Ted Trainer Chris Lewis Glen Barry Richard Duncan

1. SUSTAINABILITY Collapse inevitable due to consumption patterns China’s 8% growth rate and doubling every 9 years) Collapse inevitable due to production patterns Technology only get diminishing returns and not everything has substitutes

2. COLLAPSE NOW BETTER More we delay the harder we fall Environment – collapse now allows it to bounce back Mindset shift – collapse now trigger by consumption/production cycles causes shift a cultural norms for sustainable living

3. TRANSITION WARS Won’t happen because there aren’t any resources Shift will be peaceful because pitted against globalization and industrialization Current consumption patterns means people inclined to accept living on less and consuming less Guns vs butter

4. ECOLOGY Growth rewards environmental destruction, profit motive means being less concerned with the global commons Encourages wasteful use of resources 3 rd world displacement Technology can’t solve species extinction and so far as failed us against warming Technology doesn’t change consumption patterns which is necessary in the long term

5. POSSIBILITY OF CONFLICT Decreases because countries turn inwards Nuclear war won’t cause extinction but environmental collapse does

DEFEATING THE IMPACT TURN

1) SUSTAINABILITY Technology – poor economy draws entrepreneurs to think of solutions which makes ecologically sustainable living easier Motivations – self-correcting factors change investor calculations because survival is profitable Resources growing more abundant Humans switch to more economically sustainable resources

2) COLLAPSE NOW WORSE Collapse is not inevitable Source or cause of collapse matters Low consumption makes the collapse sever and that’s what’s happening with the current collapse Lack of jobs means rally around the flag effect

3) TRANSITION WARS Countries lashout Billions still die…and that’s bad Short-term internal link turn to all their impacts

4) ECOLOGY Environmental Kuznet’s Curve Investment goes towards countries that have environmental regulations because poor countries are too preoccupied with survival

5) POSSIBILITY OF CONFLICT That’s above Economic collapse causes wars and wars turn and outweigh environmental concerns