Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change: Adaptive Learning Experiences of Managing Climatic Extremes in Agriculture Sector Atiq Kainan Ahmed Senior Social Scientist, ADPC. Email: atiqka@adpc.net

Bangladesh Case Projected trends Increasing frequency, intensity and variability of droughts, floods, tropical storms Sea level rise and salt water intrusion Agriculture will be the most affected sector

Drought Prone Areas

One can, actually, visualize the situation …….

High evaporation rate and temperature Dried up canals and water bodies Affected stages of agricultural crops High agricultural drought and dryness

Consequences/impacts Agriculture/crops failure >> fallow land Loss of livelihoods Livestock loss Environmental degradation Deterioration of water quality/fisheries

Future Climate Risk: Drought Spells

Livelihoods Adaptation Process

LACC objectives Develop a methodology to transform climate change impact modelling into livelihood adaptation practices Strengthen institutional structures to handle climate change adaptation Initiate and facilitate the field testing with farmers of livelihood adaptation strategies

Designing adaptation strategy Key strategy Assessing current vulnerability Assessing future climate risks Designing adaptation strategy Stakeholder engagement and feedback Testing adaptation options

Assessing current vulnerability

Local perceptions –1 On climate variability Current climate is behaving differently from the past years. The past climate condition was better (says the elderly people) . Seasonal cycle (locally called rhituchakra) has changed from the past. Where it used to be 6 distinct seasons in the past but now its almost 3 or 4 seasons observed distinctly in a year. Climatic conditions have changed due to the God’s will (khodar ichay) and the cure – the rainfall is in the God’s hand (akasher pani allar haatey). The average temperature in the area has changed. People feel that summer time heat increased and the winter has become shorter and in some winter days cold became severe.

Local perceptions –2 On drought situation People’s perceptions on drought are equated to: dryness (locally known as shukna), consecutive non-rainy days (locally known as ana-bristi), Drought is more frequent now than before. Prevalence of pest and disease incidence increased and largely associated with HYV rice. With adoption of HYV rice the production increased but due to climatic variability adverse impact of drought causes yield reduction. Vegetable and fruits (Mango varieties) remain affected due to variations in rain, temperature and drought situations.

Risks and vulnerabilities Both types of factors: climatic & non-climatic factors emerged.

Profiling of livelihood groups Most vulnerable groups Wage labourers Small & marginal farmers Fishers Petty traders/ businessmen Large farmers Large businessmen ‘Non’ or ‘least’ vulnerable groups

Assets portfolio evaluated (local indicators used) Innovative asset evaluation scoring system developed

Small & marginal farmers (32.43%) Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, dryness, high temperature, and erraticity of the above Crop yield reduction Electricity failure (for irrigation supply) Unavailability of surface water storage facilities (e.g. khari, ponds) Unavailability of natural water bodies (e.g. canals, rivers) Pest infestation Undulation of land Unavailability of DTW Insufficient irrigation supply systems (mostly tertiary canals) Unavailability of supplementary irrigation facilities High price of agricultural inputs Tenancy related complexities Inability to cultivate 'boro' crop

Wage labourers (41.10%) Climatic factors: high temperature/heat (summer months), cold (during winter months) Lack of healthcare facilities Lack of cash/savings Lack (ownership) of cultivable land Food shortage Unavailability of work during 'boro' season Insufficient labour opportunities during 'aus‘ and ‘rabi’ season Low female employment opportunities Commuting problems Seasonal migration(usually failed ones) Livestock/poultry diseases/sufferings/loss Poor wage rate Tenancy, share and wage related complexities

Petty traders/ businessmen (6.81%) Limited number of buyers in the market Lack of cash/savings Limited ownership of sufficient cultivable land Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.) Lack of non-farm employment opportunities Low market price Commuting problems

Fishers (fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours) 0.35% Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, high temperature Declining natural water bodies (rivers and canals) Declining number of pond/kharies Declining natural fish species Limited opportunities for fishing (fish markets, storage facilities etc.) Difficulties in getting lease for fishing of khas (public) water bodies Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)

‘Least’ vulnerable groups (Large farmers and Large businessmen) 6 Severe and consecutive droughts Local political influences/situation Prolong electricity failure Fall of external markets (e.g. failure in selling products in other districts) Transportation problems High price of agricultural machineries and inputs in external markets Timely availability of agricultural inputs in the local market Access to better lands Access to lands near better sources of water retaining facilities Having buffer from the T-Aman season Ability to arrange additional enhanced irrigation facilities Tenancy arrangements (i.e. ability to lease out lands) Better economic conditions allow them to go for alternative crops, timely agricultural actions and inputs including labour etc.

Comparative asset composition Non-irrigated areas Irrigated areas

Vulnerability context

Adaptation options

Designing adaptation options Develop viable Adaptation options Collate indigenous, local and research based adaptation options Synthesize into potentially suitable adaptation options for location specific conditions Scientific validation of adaptation options Local prioritization/selection of adaptation options for field testing

Tillage, mulching(shedding) Adaptive responses-1 (Traditional measures) Pond/khari ayel (bundh) raising Tillage, mulching(shedding)

Only the adjacent lands got benefited from kharies while the farthest lands remain uncultivated due to lack of water.

Adaptive responses-2 (State supported modern practices) Tank water supply DTW Use of paid irrigation

Adaptive responses-3 (Alternative/selective) Mango Home gardening Dual purpose (optimal use of water & plant) Livestock and birds (that consume less water)

Use of traditional means and sources Adaptive responses-4 (Domestic practices) Use of traditional means and sources Load sharing

Agricultural adaptive practices Pond (and khari) water irrigation DTW/STW water irrigation Beel, canals and rivers water irrigation Tillage Mulching Use of green manure/pesticide use Alternate crops (more tolerant ones) Selection of rice varieties Alternative livestock/birds Short duration fish culture (short term) Agricultural adaptations Erosion of (use) savings Credit (NGO-GO sources) Loan (relatives or informal sources) Out migration (cyclical) Multiple livelihood activities Change of occupations Mortgage properties Socio-economic adaptations

Typology of agricultural adaptations Agronomic management Water harvesting and exploitation 3. Water Use efficiency

4. Crop intensification and diversification 5. Alternate enterprises 6. Post harvest practices

Complementary adaptation measures Physical adaptive measures Livelihood enhancement Income diversification Strengthening institutional structures Policy formulation Financial mechanisms for risk transfer Awareness creation & advocacy

Field demonstration of prioritized adaptation options

Institutions (GoB)

Institutions (NGOs and CBOs)

Strengthening Institutional set-up DMB District DMC Upazilla DMC Union DMC LMO DAE - DRM Core Group District Deputy Director Upazilla Ag. Officer Sub-Assistant Ag. Officer Community/Farmer Groups/Associations/Local Facilitation Team NTIWG DMB, DAE, BMD, DRR, LI, DoE UTIWG National expert advisory group

Community mobilizations Community awareness raising Farmers groups mobilization Planning, action and monitoring demonstrations on farmers fields Capacity building and training sessions Community Risk reduction planning

Gradual systematic up-scalling of livelihoods adaptations Assessing current vulnerability Assessing future climate risks Designing adaptation strategy Stakeholder engagement and feedback Testing adaptation options

Incorporation of End-to-end climate information generation and application system Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication of response options/ feedback

Community level forecast information sharing End-to-end early warning facilitation to the community

Sharing with the agency/ institutional representatives – those who work for the community

Interpretation and action Agency notification Community notification Response operations Forecasting Adaptive Learning and Capacity Building to interpret probabilistic forecast, prepare impact outlooks, communicate impact outlooks with response options to enhance preparedness

Capacity Building Climate risk and impact analysis climate risk analysis methods climate change impacts viable adaptation options ii) Climate forecast applications for drought mitigation introduction to forecast products Application of weather and climate forecast products

Some key lessons Development, DRR and CCA are integrated issues at the local level Moving towards adaptation requires a livelihoods perspective An “adaptive learning environment” is essential for building adaptive capacity at community level as well as institutional level. CFA/EWS are a good entry points for managing climatic extremes Value indigenous/local knowledge ; we need to build on those, and integrate it with external “know hows”

Vulnerable Coping range Hazards are increasing Adaptive capacity is not increasing

Vulnerable Coping range Vulnerable Adaptation Need for up-scaling adaptive capacity Vulnerable Climate shock Adaptation Coping range Vulnerable

Vulnerable Coping range Time Adaptation “Gradual increase “in adaptive capacity is needed Time Coping range Vulnerable Adaptation Climate shock

A “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development” question Multiple pathways to improve adaptive responses that would comprise of both short-term and long-term adaptive measures. Such multiple pathways could comprise of: Recommendations A “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development” question This is all about increasing the adaptive capacity of the people in all spheres Physical–structural adaptations Agricultural adjustment practices Research and innovation for adequate crops Risk reduction measures Enabling institutional environment Social and cultural adjustments Shift and switch to alternative crop Improvements in irrigation systems Climate Forecast Information Awareness And Advocacy But, this is also about bringing newer ideas/ experiences/technolo gies and innovations appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environment Setting and selecting these livelihood options are about stretching the limits of the local adaptive responses as well as the innovation, experiences, technologies appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environment of the respective areas.

The challenge would be to find out the right balance and combination among these varied adaptation options specific to respective “geo-physical settings” and “livelihoods systems”.

Coastal Areas

Thanks Atiq Kainan Ahmed Senior Social Scientist, ADPC. Email: atiqka@adpc.net