Daniel Rutledge, Landcare Research Garry McDonald, NZCEE & Market Economics Michael Cameron, University of Waikato Graham McBride, NIWA Jacques Poot, University of Waikato Frank Scrimgeour, University of Waikato Robbie Price, Landcare Research Derek Phyn, Environment Waikato Hedwig van Delden, RIKS Beat Huser, Environment Waikato Bruce Small, AgResearch Liz Wedderburn, AgResearch Tony Fenton, Alchemists Ltd Development of Spatial Decision Support Systems to Support Long-term Integrated Planning International Congress on Modelling & Simulation University of Canterbury 11 December 2007

What do we want for the future? Depends on Whom you ask… How far ahead we look… (amongst other things) Despite different individual opinions, values, desires, & utilities, increasingly we express a desire to become sustainable.

New Zealand Policy Context Resource Management Act 1991 “The purpose of this Act is to promote the sustainable management of natural and physical resources.” (Section 3) Local Government Act 2002 “… this Act … provides for local authorities to play a broad role in promoting the social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being of their communities, taking a sustainable development approach.” (Section 3) Prepare Long-Term Council Community Plans

Cultural Environmental Social Economic WELL-BEINGS

While laudable in principle, how do we become sustainable? How do we plan for it? How do we measure or monitor it? What will it take?

“The common theme throughout this strategy for sustainable development is the need to integrate economic and ecological considerations in decision making.” World Commission on Environment and Development Our Common Future, 1987 “The fundamental task in front of us over the coming decades is to redesign our socio-political-economic system in ways that reintegrate the dependencies between people and our underpinning ecological systems.” Dr. J. Morgan Williams, Former NZ Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment

Environment Waikato Long-Term Council Community Planning “ Local authorities within the Waikato area have made a commitment to work together to promote the well-being of their communities, consistent with the principles of sustainable development. This commitment is in the form of a signed triennial agreement.” (Page 9) “ Our environmental resources therefore need to be managed sustainably, so that our region’s prosperity and growth can continue for the long-term.” (Page 24)

Choosing Regional Futures Develop and apply planning and communication tools to make informed choices for the future Funded from by NZ Foundation for Research, Science & Technology

Waikato 2006 Population: 387,700 (Statistics NZ June 06 est.) Households: 145,100 (Statistics NZ June 06 est.) Land Cover –Agriculture 55.2% –Natural 28.2% –Forestry 14.4% –Urban 1.1% –Other 1.0% GDP: ~ $12 Billion (2003 GDP + 3% annual growth) Ecological Footprint: ~9 ha # Businesses: ~34,000

Waikato 2026? Population: 426,800 (+39,100, Statistics NZ 2026 med. est.) Households: 169,400 (+24,300; Statistics NZ 2036 med. est.) Land Cover –Agriculture ? –Natural ? –Forestry ? –Urban ? –Other ~ ? GDP: ~ $33 Billion (2003 GDP + 3% annual growth) Ecological Footprint: ? # Businesses: ~50,000+ ? ?

CRF Objectives 1)Process and communication focus  linked to EW Community Outcomes & LTCCP process  explore plausible futures (scenarios)  develop and trial a Deliberation Matrix 2) Building a spatial decision support system  support the planning & communication in Objective 1  integrate economy, environment, society ( & culture?)  track indicators across space and/or time  explore trade-offs, win-wins, limits

Natural Capital (resources) ‘mine’ ‘maintain’ How we measure ‘wealth’ in Waikato ‘GDP’ (profit) ‘ GPI ’ (people) Crowded House New Zealand has more people than expected Less money from government Sleeping In Climate change impacts are bigger than expected The economy is weaker and slower growing than anticipated Nature Counts New Zealanders discuss and understand the value of nature in a new way Economic growth comes from biological and life sciences Science Society Science and scientists become more important for economic growth More things are known about what you as an individual are doing; more things are known about what companies are doing

Strategies / Scenarios Values / Indicators Stakeholders Objective 1 Deliberation Matrix

Why an SDSS? Long-term integrated planning and resource management are examples of “wicked” or unstructured problems Characterised by –Multiple actors –Multiple values & views –Multiple outcomes possible –High uncertainty Uncertainty relative to the knowledge for solving the problem Conflicting views on values, goals and measures relative to the solution of the problem weakly structured problem structured problem weakly structured problem unstructured problem An SDSS helps address unstructured problems Integrates society, economy, and environment Identifies links & feedbacks Sets limits explicitly (e.g., only so much land, water, soil) Demonstrate importance of “where” in addition to “what” and “how much” Potential for aggregation/disaggregation

Example: ill-structured problem To be recognised as a District with: A growing and vibrant community where cultural diversity is celebrated. A diverse, sustainable economy that provides full employment. A safe and healthy society, where people can achieve their goals. A pristine, sustainable environment. South Waikato District Council LTCCP, Page 15

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 The Process Present (informed by Past) ( i.e. Community Outcomes ) Future Goals

The CRF SDSS should… Focus on science and integration, not technology Address a range of issues in an integrated manner Be robust and relatively quick Consider space explicitly Be adaptable to other regions in NZ.

CRF SDSS Considerations Scientific Organisational Technological CRF Project Constraints Time Budget Resources Scope

Scientific Considerations Interdisciplinary Systems approach Spatially-explicit Multi-scale year temporal horizon

SDSS: Systems Approach Society Economy Environment Resources Wastes Goods Labour Services Stewardship Systems models track stocks & flows over time Stocks Flows

Society Economy Environment Resources Wastes Goods Labour Services Stewardship Spatially-Explicit

Technological Considerations Multiple data types & sources Integration of different models with different origins Portability/adaptability Speed/ease of use under different settings (i.e. use in community engagement or only “behind the scenes”)

RIKS GEONAMICA Framework Stand-alone application Systems models Multiple spatial & temporal scales Model components from partners incorporated directly (no passing of data) History of development and use

Organisational Considerations Regional & District/City Councils –Primary customer –Want to use SDSS otherwise why bother –Deliver sooner rather than later –Portability Research –Ability to address a range of issues –Flexibility for simple to complex

Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Project Structure Advisory Group End User Networks

SDSS Design by Triangulation Waikato Community Outcomes & MARCO Indicators Key Drivers from Qualitative Scenarios Community outcomes from 4 other regions Society Economy Environment

Choosing Futures Waikato Community Themes & Outcomes Sustainable Environment - The Waikato region values and protects its diverse, interconnected natural environments. Quality of Life - The Waikato region is a great place to live, providing the services and opportunities we need to live well. Sustainable Economy - The Waikato region balances a thriving economy with looking after its people, places and environment. Culture & Identify - The Waikato region identifies with - and values - its land, air rivers and waterways, mountains, flora, fauna and its people. Participation & Equity - The Waikato region builds strong informed communities and has a culture that encourages people and communities to play their part. Too difficult to interpret – focused on set of 75 core MARCO indicators

Qualitative Scenarios – Key Drivers World –Climate Change: increased instability, extremes, and spatial variation –Population: migration trends, potential climate refugees –Market changes: number, size, access, consumer preferences, locations –Globalisation: R&D investment New Zealand –Population: older, increasing proportion of Maori, Pasifika, and Asians; decreasing proportion of Pakehas/Europeans –Lifestyles: changing expectations, influence of technology –Economy: agricultural intensification, new metrics, bio-economy –Energy: availability, affordability, mix of renewable/non-renewable –Housing: affordability, increasingly urban culture Waikato Region –Land use: intensification; change trends; management and influence on intensity of flooding, erosion, slips; –Auckland: urbanisation pressures –Economy: agricultural intensification –Governance: continued devolution versus greater central authority

4 Comparison Regions Auckland –~1/3 of NZ population –Highly urban and urban expansion affects Waikato to the south –Large source of internal tourism for the Waikato Bay of Plenty –Proximity to Waikato –One major urban centre (Tauranga) –Focused more on horticultural than pastoral Horizons (Wanganui-Manawatu) –Similar major land uses (agricultural, forestry) –One major urban centre (Palmerston North) Canterbury –Similar major land uses (agricultural, forestry), increasing dairying –One major urban centre (Christchurch) –Water supply/allocation an issue

NZ & World Waikato Region Dynamic Economy-Environment Model NZCEE External Drivers External Sources Water Quality NIWA Demography UoW-PSC Zoning District Councils Biodiversity LCR Spatial Indicators Climate Change Scenarios NIWA Dairying UoW-SM Land Use RIKS/LCR/EW SUITABILITY ACCESSIBILITY LOCAL INFLUENCE Hydrology NIWA Draft SDSS System Design Region District Local GEONAMICA - RIKS INTEGRATION - LCR LEAD

3 Examples Based on the SDSS Prototype Land Use Abandoned Bare Ground Broad-Acre Forestry Infrastructure Mine Indigenous Vegetation Pastoral - Dairy Pastoral - Other Other Primary Residential Water Wetland Utilities Services Manufacturing Construction Dairy ExpansionDairy Decline Village Life

SDSS “Goodness of Fit” Waikato Region Community Theme Indicators (#) Total Informed DirectIndirectGap Sustainable Environment Quality of Life Sustainable Economy17944 Culture and Identity10-37 Participation and Equity4--4

What We Want to Achieve 1.Planning tools that inform communities 2.Tools expose links and trade-offs 3.Councils use these tools

Conclusions (so far…) Successful development requires active and on-going organisational commitment Tension exists between design flexibility and prioritisation Spatially-explicit systems model approach should help unite different models & approaches Technical integration offers adaptive potential & simplifies end-use but generates additional overheads and requires willingness of researchers to relinquish some control.

Thank you! Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines